U.S. Energy Outlook For International Association for Energy Economics/American Economic Association January 5, 2013 San Diego, CA By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics…
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy…
Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 2035 125 Consumption 9% 100 10% 19% Net imports 75…
Petroleum Adam Sieminski 4 January 5, 2013
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel History 2011 Projections 250 High Oil Price…
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 6 Tight oil 4 Other lower 48…
New light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by 2040 New LDV fuel efficiency miles per gallon History 2011 Projections 50 45 40 35 30 Summary of LDV standards 25 20 2012-2016: Increase to 34.1 mpg CAFE average in 2016…
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6 4 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 30 25 22% Diesel 29% CNG/LNG 20 11% 4% 4% 2% Jet fuel 13% E85 15 Other 1% 4% Pipeline fuel…
U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades Annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 2011 million barrels per day 4 3 net product 2 exporter exports 1 0 -1 net…
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2011 Projections 25 20 Consumption 15 37% 60% 45% Net imports 10 Domestic supply 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990…
Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable Global liquids supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 120 100 44% OPEC 80 40% 60 Other non-OECD 31% 40 34% 20 OECD…
Natural Gas Adam Sieminski 13 January 5, 2013
Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 10 Alaska Coalbed…
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 *Includes combined heat-and-power and…
Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10…
Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet 6 5 4 Exports to Mexico 3 Exports to Canada 2 Lower 48 LNG exports 1 Alaska LNG exports 0…
Coal and Electricity Adam Sieminski 19 January 5, 2013
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 Period Annual Growth U.S. electricity use 1950s 9.8 percent growth (3-year rolling average) 1960s 7.3 History 2011 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 14 1990s 2.4 12…
Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 6 5 30% Natural gas 4 25%…
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 8 10 History 2011…
U.S. continues to be a net exporter of coal million short tons History 2011 Projections 1400 1200 Domestic Supply 1000 Consumption 800 600 400 200 0 -200 Net imports -400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040…
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2011 Projections 600 Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) 500 400 Wind…
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines Energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2005 2011 Projections 2.0 1.5 1.0 Energy use per capita Energy use per 2005 dollar…
In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level Carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2011 Projections 7 6 AEO2013 5 4 3 2005 2020 2040 (billion metric…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
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