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Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA

EIA · Sep 17, 2012 · 23 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 1
    Global Oil Geopolitics Rio Oil & Gas Conference September 17, 2012 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Adam Sieminski Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
  2. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 2
    Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events price per barrel (real 2010 dollars, quarterly average) 140 Global financial collapse imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil WTI crude oil price 120 100…
  3. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 3
    World Oil Market Adam Sieminski September 10, 2012 3
  4. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 4
    Economic growth has a strong impact on oil consumption percent change (year-on-year) 12 non-OECD liquid fuels consumption Forecast non-OECD GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  5. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 5
    Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 62 60 Non-OECD 50 48 46 OECD 40 40% 41 30 Other…
  6. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 6
    In OECD countries, price increases have coincided with lower consumption percent change (year-on-year) price per barrel (real 2010 dollars) 6 135 Forecast 4 90 2 45 0 0 -2 -45 OECD liquid fuels consumption (left axis) WTI crude…
  7. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 7
    Rising oil prices held down global oil consumption growth from 2005-2008, despite high economic growth percent change (year-on-year) price per barrel (real 2010 dollars) 6 135 Forecast 4 90 2 45 0 0 -2 -45 World liquid fuels…
  8. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 8
    Non-OPEC production slowed in 2011, but EIA expects stronger growth in 2012 and 2013 million barrels per day change (year-on-year) 2.5 non-OPEC liquid fuels production (left axis) Forecast 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 2001…
  9. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 9
    Non-OPEC supply expectations were adjusted upward in 2009- 2010 after production decreased during economic downturn million barrels per day annual average expectations 53.0 52.5 2009 2010 52.0 2011 2012 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5…
  10. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 10
    Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through August 2012 thousand barrels per day 1400 1200 Yemen Syria 1000 Sudan/S. Sudan 800 North Sea Mexico 600 Colombia 400 China Canada 200 Brazil 0…
  11. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 11
    Projected non-OPEC supply growth over the next two years, major countries change in production from previous year million barrels per day 1.4 1.2 2012 2013 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Kazakhstan Vietnam…
  12. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 12
    OPEC production often acts to balance the oil market. Cuts in OPEC production targets tend to lead to price increases. million barrels per day change (year-on-year) price per barrel (real 2010 dollars) 5 100 4 80 3 60 2 40 1 20…
  13. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 13
    OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity million barrels per day 6 forecast 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity Source: U.S. Energy Information…
  14. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 14
    World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance million barrels per day 92 4 Implied Stock Change and Balance Forecast 90 World Supply 3 World Demand 88 2 86 1 84 0 82 -1 80 -2 // 78 -3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S.…
  15. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 15
    U.S. Oil Market Adam Sieminski September 10, 2012 15
  16. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) tight oil production for select plays billion cubic feet per day million barrels of oil per day 30 1.0 Rest of…
  17. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 17
    U.S. liquid fuels production Total liquids fuels production Change from prior year million barrels per day million barrels per day (line chart) (column chart) 12 1.00 10 0.80 8 0.60 6 0.40 4 0.20 2 0.00 0 -0.20 2010 2011…
  18. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Composition and volume of U.S. crude oil imports is shifting Crude oil imports million barrels per day 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 OPEC Canada Mexico Colombia Other non-OPEC Brazil Source: U.S. Energy…
  19. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 19
    U.S. commerical crude inventories outside of the mid-continent (PADD 2) are within the normal range million barrels 300 290 280 2012 270 260 250 240 230 2007 - 2011 inventory range 220 210 // 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun…
  20. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 20
    U.S. liquids fuel consumption is flattening Total liquids fuels consumption Change from prior year million barrels per day million barrels per day (line chart) (column chart) 20 0.30 18 0.20 16 14 0.10 12 10 0.00 8 -0.10 6 4…
  21. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 21
    U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines moves even lower in various side case scenarios U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2010 Projections 25 20 Consumption Extended Policies 14% 36% High TRR 15…
  22. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 22
    Composition of U.S. liquid fuels consumption implication for Brazil U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day 2025 2035 21 Net petroleum 18 imports 15 49% 12 Domestic petroleum supply 9 36% 6 Natural gas plant…
  23. Rio Oil and Gas Conference – EIA – slide 23
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…

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