Outlook for World Oil Markets Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration French-American Defense Symposium Warrenton, VA April 11, 2008
Fossil fuels, particularly liquid fuels and other petroleum, will dominate world energy consumption quadrillion Btu 300 History Projections 250 34% Liquids 28% 200 38% Coal 24% 150 26% Natural Gas Share of World 100 Total…
Energy consumption in the non-OECD nations will soon surpass quadrillion Btu the OECD, driven by growth in Asia 450 404 400 OECD 350 294 298 300 Non-OECD 265 250 240 207 200 150 100 50 0 2004 2015 2030 North America…
World oil prices are higher in all AEO2008 cases nominal dollars per barrel 200 History Projections 175 High Price 150 125 100 Reference 75 Low Price 50 25 0 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
U.S. liquids consumption is much lower in AEO2008 million barrels per day 30 27.0 25 24.0 21.6 22.0 22.8 20.7 21.0 Electric Power 20 Industrial Residential and Commercial 15 10 Transportation 5 0 2006 AEO2007 AEO2008…
Non-OECD liquids consumption will edge out OECD by 2030 million barrels per day reflects U.S. liquids 70 in AEO2008 61 60 57 OECD 52 53 49 50 50 46 Non-OECD 40 33 30 20 10 0 2004 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe…
The Persian Gulf remains the worlds most important oil supplier percent 100 Africa/ Middle East Far East Central/South America 75 Europe and Eurasia 50 North America Other OPEC 25 OPEC Persian Gulf 0 2006 2030…
U.S. dependence on liquid fuels imports declines by 2030, but is still more than half of consumption million barrels per day 25 History Projections 20 Consumption Net Imports 54% 15 60% 10 Domestic Supply 5 0 1960…
U.S. imports of oil come from many sources, but the Persian Gulf is important million barrels per day 15 Other 12 Far East Caribbean Europe 9 North America 6 Other OPEC 3 OPEC Persian Gulf 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025…
The Straits of Hormuz and Malacca are the worlds key oil transit routes
There are many oil supply areas of concern worldwide Caspian & Caucasus Iraq Iran Saudi Arabia Venezuela Sudan Nigeria Indonesia
Supply disruptions have driven oil prices upwards dollars per barrel, refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil (Saudi Light official price for 1970-1973) 90 Nigeria/Venezuela/Iraq 80 Iranian Revolution First Gulf War 3.5…
U.S. economic growth has fallen after major oil supply disruptions real GDP growth, percent change from previous quarter Outbreak of Iran-Iraq War 3.3 million barrels per Strike in Venezuela day War in Iraq Iranian Revolution 2.1…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008, full report, April 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next update June…
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