Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration New York Energy Forum New York, NY October 16, 2007 www.eia.doe.gov
Tight global oil market conditions are projected to continue through 2008. OPEC production decisions will continue to influence the oil market situation. Low surplus production capacity of 2 to 3 million barrels per day, concentrated…
Crude oil prices, having recently exceeded 80 per barrel, are projected to decline slowly over the forecast. 100 Crude prices often decline just 90 prior to winter 80 70 WTI Price 60 (Dollars 50 per Barrel) 40 30 20 10…
OPEC cut crude oil production last fall to firm world oil markets. Change in Production Since 3rd Quarter 2006 0.0 (million barrels per day) -0.2 Total OPEC -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3…
OECD commercial stocks have fallen from record highs to near-normal levels. 180 160 140 120 100 Difference From 5-Year Average 80 (Million Barrels) 60 40 20 0 -20 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Q Q Q Q…
Market balance may loosen slightly in 2008. World Oil Consumption Growth Non-OPEC Production Growth 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Million Barrels per Day 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007…
OPEC surplus production capacity remains low. 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Million Barrels per Day 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1996-2006 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 Average Saudi Arabia Rest of OPEC Short-Term Energy Outlook, October…
Dollar-based economies have experienced higher oil prices than those with other currencies. 90 79.91 80 per barrel 70 60 57.50 West Texas Intermdiate 50 (Dollars per 40 Barrel) per barrel 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03…
Multiple and hard-to-predict uncertainties drive the oil market forecast. OPEC Production Non-OPEC Decisions Supply Growth Weather Iraq Iran Economic Growth Refinery Venezuela Outages Value of U.S. Dollar Nigeria
U.S. average fuel expenditures are expected to be higher for all fuels this winter, October March. Average Household Expenditures (Percent Change from Last Winter) If 10% Colder If 10% Warmer Than Fuel Base Case Than Forecast…
Retail gasoline prices are projected to be higher in 2008. 350 300 250 Cents per 200 Gallon 150 Average Summer Price 100 2006 2.84 / gallon 2007 2.93 / gallon 50 2008 2.97 / gallon Forecast 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06…
Winter 2007-2008 is expected to be 4 percent colder than 2006-2007 but still 2 percent warmer than 30- year average. U.S. Heating Degree-Days Population-Weighted 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan…
Natural gas prices are expected to be higher than last winter. Henry Hub Winter Average Spot Price Residential Winter Average Price 10% Colder = 8.71/ mcf 10% Colder = 13.53/ mcf Base Case = 7.79/ mcf Base Case = 13.14/ mcf 10%…
U.S. natural gas in storage is projected to remain above historical averages. Deviation from 5-year Average (Billion Cubic Feet) 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Forecast -800 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07…
Natural gas heating bills are projected to be higher for all regions this winter. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using natural gas Average Total as primary heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West…
Retail heating oil prices are projected to average about 40 cents per gallon higher than last winter. October 2007 March 2008 Average 10% Colder = 2.91/ gallon 350 Base Case = 2.88/ gallon 300 10% Warmer = 2.85/ gallon 250…
Distillate fuel inventories are expected to remain at average levels. 200 175 150 125 Million 100 Barrels 75 50 25 Forecast 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Band represents previous 5-year…
U.S. winter heating oil expenditures projected to increase for all regions. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using heating oil as primary heating fuel Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures West 1%…
Residential propane prices are expected to average about 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter. 250 200 Cents 150 per Gallon 100 October 2007 March 2008 Average 10% Colder = 2.34/ gallon Base Case = 2.28/ gallon 50…
Propane inventories are low. 80 10% Warmer 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 History / Base Case 10% Colder 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Colored green bands represent normal range published in Energy Information…
Propane expenditures are projected to increase in all regions. Households using propane as Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) primary heating fuel Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures West 4% West +2 +8 + 10…
Winter electricity expenditure increases are expected to be smaller than other fuels. Households using electricity as primary heating fuel Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures…
Summary On average, U.S. households will pay about 88, or 10 percent, more for heating this winter. Higher expenditures are driven by higher fuel prices and weather-related increases in consumption. Under the baseline forecast,…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Examples of Special Analyses…
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