Thoughts on Energy Projections Used in Climate Change Analysis for Workshop on Methods to Address Uncertainty in Forecasting Future Values of Key Social, Economic, and Resource Variables March 18, 2013 Washington, DC by Howard…
Vs. Howard Gruenspecht , CMU workshop March 18, 2013 2
Observations regarding energy projections and forecasts Leading providers of energy projections generally do a better job of characterizing uncertainty and providing meaningful caveats than is suggested in the background note.…
EIA retrospective review of reference case projections through AEO2012: summary Percent of Average Absolute Projections Over- Variable Percent Differences Estimated Real Gross Domestic Product (Average Cumulative Growth)* 1.0 42.6…
EIA retrospective review of reference case projections through AEO2012: energy related CO2 emissions Projected (million metric tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 AEO 1994…
Global projections of energy-related CO2 emissions: EIA International Energy Outlook 2000 and IEA World Energy Outlook 2000 Projected world energy-related CO2 emissions (Million metric tons carbon dioxide) 50000 History Projections…
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year 7 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1…
Observations regarding climate and energy analysis Experts tend to revel in the uncertainties and complexities within their own field while ignoring other key uncertainties, as illustrated by the experience of the Intergovernmental…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
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