The Outlook for U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration United States Oil and Gas Association February 27, 2006 Houston, TX
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 100 History Projections 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2006
World Oil Spare Production Capacity (million barrels per day) 6.0 History Projections 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1997 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, February…
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 1.6 History Projections 1.4 1.2 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2005 2006 2007 OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union & E. Europe Other *Organization of Economic…
U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day) 1000 History Projections 800 600 2.2% 1.7% 400 200 -0.3% 0 -200 -400 2005 2006 2007 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Short-Term Energy…
U.S. Crude Oil Stocks (million barrels) 400 History Projections 380 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, February…
U.S. Gasoline Stocks (million barrels) 240 History Projections 230 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 220 210 200 190 180 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2006
U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth 12% 90 10% 80 History Projections 8% 70 6% 60 4% 50 2% 40 0% 30 -2% 20 -4% 10 -6% 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Percent Change (left axis) Billion Cubic Feet per Day (right…
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 16 History Projections 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2006
EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection Major oil producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively higher oil…
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 80 History Projections 60 40 20 History AEO2005 AEO2006 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections Petroleum 50 40 Coal 30 Natural Gas 20 Nuclear 10 Renewables 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook…
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 20 62% Consumption Net Imports 15 58% 10 Domestic Supply 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Deepwater Offshore Alaska Shallow Water Offshore 0 1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030…
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net Imports 21% 15% 20 Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (trillion…
U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 10 History Projections 8 Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional 6 Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore 4 Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore…
Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 28 26 Growth in Alaskan Production 24 Growth in LNG Imports 22 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 20 18 Base Production (all…
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History Projections 7 6 5 4 3 History AEO2005 2 AEO2006 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and…
U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including Combined Heat and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts) 1,400 New Nuclear 1,200 New Renewable New Coal Needed Capacity 1,000 New Natural Gas Existing Other Fossil Steam 800 Existing…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…