EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook Guy F. Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration DOE/NASEO 2007/08 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 9, 2007 Washington, DC Short-Term Energy Outlook, October…
U.S. average fuel expenditures are expected to be higher for all fuels this winter (October March). Average Household Expenditures Percent Change from Last Winter If 10% Warmer If 10% Colder Fuel Base Case Than Forecast Than…
Winter 2007-08 is expected to be 4 % colder than 2006-07, but still 2 % warmer than 30-year average. U.S. Heating Degree-Days Population-Weighted 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2006-2007 2007-2008 (NOAA…
Natural gas prices are expected to be higher than last winter. Henry Hub Winter Average Spot Price Residential Winter Average Price 10% Colder = 8.71/ mcf 10% Colder = 13.53/ mcf Base Case = 7.79/ mcf Base Case = 13.14/ mcf 10%…
U.S. natural gas in storage is projected to remain above historical averages. Deviation from 5-year Average, Billion Cubic Feet 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 Forecast Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Base…
Natural gas heating bills are projected to be higher for all regions this winter. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using natural Average Total gas as primary heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West…
Crude oil prices, having recently exceeded 80 per barrel, are projected to decline slowly over the forecast. 100 Crude prices often decline 90 just prior to winter 80 70 WTI Price 60 Dollars 50 per 40 barrel 30 20 10 Forecast…
Multiple and hard-to-predict uncertainties drive the oil market forecast OPEC Production Non-OPEC Decisions Supply Growth Weather Iraq Iran Economic Growth Refinery Venezuela Outages Value of U.S. Dollar Nigeria Short-Term…
Retail gasoline prices are projected to be higher in 2008. 350 300 250 Cents 200 per Gallon 150 Average Summer Price 100 2006 2.84 / gallon 50 2007 2.93 / gallon 2008 2.97 / gallon Forecast 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06…
Retail heating oil prices are projected to average about 40 cents per gallon higher than last winter. October 2007 March 2008 Averages 10% Colder = 2.91/ gallon 350 Base Case = 2.88/ gallon 300 10% Warmer = 2.85/ gallon 250…
U.S. winter heating oil expenditures projected to increase for all regions. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using heating Average Total oil as primary heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West 1%…
Residential propane prices are expected to average about 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter. 250 200 Cents 150 per Gallon 100 October 2007 March 2008 Average 10% Colder = 2.34/ gallon 50 Base Case = 2.28/ mcf 10%…
Propane inventories are low. 80 10% Warmer 70 60 50 Million 40 Barrels 30 20 10 Actual / Base Case 10% Colder 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Colored bands represent normal range published in EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status…
Propane expenditures are projected to increase in all regions. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using propane as primary heating fuel Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures West 4% West +2 +8 + 10…
Winter electricity expenditure increases are expected to be smaller than other fuels. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using electricity as primary Average Total heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures…
Wrap up: On average, U.S. households will pay about 88 (10%) more for heating this winter. Higher expenditures are driven by higher unit prices and weather-related increases in consumption. Under the baseline forecast, natural…
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