2009 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Howard Gruenspecht Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration 2009 Summer Energy Outlook Conference April 14, 2009 Washington, DC
Key Factors Driving the Short-Term Outlook 1) Global economic slowdown and falling world oil consumption, 2) High inventories, and 3) Rising global surplus oil production capacity Together these factors contribute to lower…
World Liquid Fuels Consumption is Projected to Decline by 1.4 million bbl/d in 2009 Forecast 90 4.0 Million Total Consumption 85 3.5 barrels per day 80 3.0 Change 75 2.5 from 70 Annual Growth 2.0 prior 65 1.5 year 60 1.0 55…
The Balance Between Global Consumption and non-OPEC Supply Growth Drives Oil Prices 4 Non-OPEC Supply (Left Axis) Forecast 100 Change World Consumption (Left Axis) 80 from 3 WTI Crude Oil Price (Right Axis) Prior 60 Year 2…
World Oil Spare Production Capacity Is Projected to Increase Significantly this Year Million barrels per day 6 Forecast 5 4 3 2 1 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: Shaded area…
WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Projected to Average 54 per barrel this Summer (April September) Dollars per barrel Forecast 160 140 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil 120 100 55 per barrel July 2009 80 60 133 per barrel…
Major Characteristics of 2009 U.S. Summer Outlook for Gasoline Much lower crude oil prices The first consistent signs of a reversal in the decline of gasoline consumption Slowdown in growth of fuel ethanol production High…
Lower Gasoline Prices Begin to Result In Higher Gasoline Consumption Percent change from prior Summer Forecast 40% 29.7% 20% 1.8% 3.0% 3.3% 0.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0% -4.6% -20% -40% -41.3% -60% 2007 2008 2009 Real Personal…
Refineries Are Expected to Maximize Gasoline Yields and Reduce Imports Change from prior summer (million barrels per day) Forecast 0.40 0.20 0.16 0.24 0.20 0.09 0.04 0.00 -0.20 -0.11 -0.07 -0.19 -0.40 -0.43 -0.60 -0.6…
Summer Retail Regular-Grade Gasoline Prices Projected to Average 2.23 per Gallon Dollars per gallon 5.00 2008 Avg. 3.81 4.00 2006 2007 Avg. 2.84 Avg. 2.93 2009 3.00 Forecast Avg. 2.23 2.00 1.00 0.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07…
Regular Gasoline Summer Prices Vary by Region Dollars per gallon 5.00 U.S. Average = 3.81 4.02 4.00 3.79 3.77 3.69 3.79 U.S. Average = 2.23 3.00 2.42 2.21 2.20 2.12 2.23 2.00 1.00 0.00 2008 2009 (Forecast) East Coast…
Summer Retail Diesel Prices Projected to Average 2.27 per gallon, Down 2.10 from Last Summer Dollars per gallon 2008 5.20 Avg. 4.37 4.20 2006 2007 2009 Avg. 2.88 Avg. 2.85 Forecast 3.20 Avg. 2.27 2.20 1.20 0.20 Jan-…
Natural Gas Prices Are Projected to Remain Low Through 2009 Dollars per thousand cubic feet 25 Forecast 20 15 10 5 0 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Residential Price Henry Hub Price Wellhead…
Growth in U.S. Residential Electricity Prices Is Expected to Slow During 2009 Change from prior year Forecast 12% 10.3% 10% 8% 6.6% 6% 5.4% 4.2% 4% 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2% 0.9% 0% -2% -1.2% -1.6% -4% 1999 2000 2001…
Summary Oil and Gasoline: Weak global economies and declining world oil demand have led to lower crude oil prices. WTI Crude oil prices expected to rise through the forecast, averaging 54 this summer compared with 121 last…
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