Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration Guy. carusoeia.doe.gov Global Business Forum November 21, 2005 Washington, DC
Major Events and World Oil Prices 1970-2004 dollars per barrel Saudis abandon swing Strong Demand Growth 45 producer role 40 Venezuela Iran-Iraq War Operation Unrest 35 Begins Desert 30 Storm OPEC cutbacks 25 Oil Embargo 20…
Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production thousand barrels per day dollars per barrel History Projections 72 2,000 WTI Crude Oil Price Shut In Capacity 64.00 64.25 64.00 63.75 66 63.00 1,600 60 1,200 716 54 800 576…
Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity thousand barrels per day cents per gallon History Projections 6,000 340 Retail Diesel Price Retail Gasoline Price 5,000 310 278 4,000 268 280 259 258 256 3,000 250 Shut In Capacity 238 237…
Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices 2005 dollars per barrel million barrels per day 70 History Projections 14 60 12 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0 0 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 WTI Spot Price World Spare…
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 1.6 1.4 History Projections 1.2 3.2% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union & E. Europe Other…
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 3.0 2.5 History Projections 2.0 1.5 United States 1.0 0.5 China 0.0 -0.5 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1999 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, November…
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks 60 History Projections Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005
U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day) 1000 History Projections 800 3.5% 600 2.2% 400 200 -0.8% 0 -200 -400 2004 2005 2006 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Short-Term Energy…
Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production billion cubic feet per day dollars per thousand cubic feet 10 History Projections 20 Henry Hub Price * Shut In Capacity 8 16 13.60 13.05 11.19 6 10.69 12 9.07 4.3 4 3.4 8…
U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth 12% 90 10% 80 History Projections 8% 70 6% 60 4% 50 2% 40 0% 30 -2% 20 -4% 10 -6% 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Percent Change (left axis) Billion Cubic Feet per Day (right axis)…
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 14 History Projections 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 38% 200 Share of Natural Gas 25% World Oil 24% 150 Total Coal 100 Renewables 8% 50 5% Nuclear 0 1970 1975 1980…
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 350 History Projections 46% 300 42% 250 Mature Market Economies Share of 200 World Emerging Total 150 Economies 100 12% 50 Transitional Economies…
World Oil Consumption and Production, 2002, 2010, and 2025 (million barrels per day) Consumption Production 140 Mature Market Economies OPEC Emerging Asia Transitional Economies Other 119.2 Other 118.9 120 100 94.6 94.3 80 78.2…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2005, December 2004 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005 Examples of Special Analyses Analysis…
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