EIAs Winter Fuels Outlook Guy F. Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration October 12, 2005 Washington, DC
U.S. Average Winter Fuel Expenditures Are Expected To Be Significantly Higher Winter of Winter of 05-06 % Change from last Winter Average Fuel 99-04 04-05 Warmer Base Colder Warmer Base Colder Natural Gas Price (/mcf*) 8.41 11.13…
Several Factors Are Driving Higher Expenditures International factors such as low spare crude oil capacity and political tensions contribute to uncertainty and low supply growth for crude oil. Recent hurricanes and associated…
Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Prices and Strained Supply 2005 /bbl MMb/d 70 14 Forecast 60 12 WTI Spot Price World Excess Production Capacity 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0 0 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Initially Shut Down Most Gulf Refinery Capacity 000 bbl/d Projections c/gal 6,000 350 Retail Gasoline Price 5,000 330 Retail Diesel Price 4,000 300 310 282 290 3,000 284 273 Shut In Capacity 1,860 266…
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Shut In Significant Gulf Natural Gas Production Bcf/d Projections /Mcf 10 20 Henry Hub Price Shut In Capacity 8 16 13.72 12.76 11.96 6 12 5.2 3.7 4 8 2.1 2 4 0 0 8/22 9/1 9/11 9/21 10/1 Oct…
U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (Change from Previous Year) 000 bbl/d History Projections 800 3.5% 600 2.2% 400 200 0 -0.9% -200 -400 2004 2005 2006 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other
Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth 12% 90 Billion Cubic Feet per Day 10% History Proj. 80 Percent Change 8% 70 6% 60 4% 50 2% 40 0% 30 -2% 20 -4% 10 -6% 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Percent Change (Left…
A Slightly Colder Winter is Projected for the Lower-48 States U.S. Heating Degree-Days Population-Weighted 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2004-2005 2005-2006 (NOAA) Colder Warmer
WTI* Crude Oil Price Baseline, Colder, Warmer Cases Oct 2005 Mar 2006 Average 80 10% Colder = 68/bbl 10% Colder 70 Base Case = 64/bbl 10% Warmer = 61/bbl 60 50 10% Warmer Dollars per 40 Forecast Barrel 30 Actual / Base Case 20…
Natural Gas Heating Bills Are Projected to Rise by Between 32% and 61% % Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using natural gas as primary heating fuel Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures U.S. 55% West +4% + 29…
Natural Gas Spot Prices (Henry Hub): Baseline, Warmer, Colder Cases Oct 2005 Mar 2006 Average 10% Colder = 13.20/mcf 16 Base Case = 11.40/mcf 14 10% Warmer = 10.00/mcf 10% Colder 12 Dollars per 10 Actual / Base Case Thousand…
Winter Electricity Expenditures Are Projected Up By Less Than 4%, Except in the South Households using % Change from Last Winter (Projected) electricity as primary heating fuel Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures U.S. 29%…
Winter Heating Oil Expenditures Are Projected to Increase by Over 30% Households using heating % Change from Last Winter (Projected) oil as primary heating fuel Average Total U.S. 7% Consumption Price Expenditures West 1% West +3%…
Retail Heating Oil Prices: Baseline, Colder, Warmer Cases 350 Oct 2005 Mar 2006 Average 10% Colder = 2.80/gal 10% Colder 300 Base Case = 2.54/gal 10% Warmer = 2.34/gal 250 Cents 200 10% Warmer per 150 Forecast Gallon 100…
Propane Expenditures Are Projected Up by 20% to 36% This Winter Households using propane % Change from Last Winter (Projected) as primary heating fuel U.S. 4% Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures West 3% West +4% + 22 % +…
Conclusions These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty, depending in part on the rate of recovery in the Gulf of Mexico. The average U.S. household will pay about 260 more for heating this winter, mostly due to already…
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