Major Trends in Oil and Natural Gas Markets State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference North Falmouth, Massachusetts Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration August 7, 2006
Crude Oil Prices Likely to Remain Around 70 Through 2007 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval) Forecast 100 90 80 Dollars per Barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan- Jul- Jan-…
World Oil Consumption Growth 3.0 88 86 consumption growth, million b/d 2.5 World Oil world demand, million b/d 84 Demand 2.0 Rest of World 82 1.5 80 US 1.0 78 76 0.5 China 74 0.0 72 -0.5 70 1991- 2000 2001…
Growth in World Consumption & Non-OPEC Production 4.0 28 Demand 3.5 Non-OPEC Supply* Forecast WTI Crude Oil Price 3.0 21 MMBD /barrel change 2.5 change from from 2.0 14 previous previous year 1.5 year 1.0 7 0.5 0.0 0…
World Oil Supply Growth (Change from Previous Year) 1 World Liquids Production 2006 0.8 OPEC 0.6 Non- Crude 2007 OPEC 30 55 2006 Million 0.4 2005 barrels Hurricane recovery per day 0.2 0 -0.2 Hurricane damage -0.4 -0.6…
OECD Inventories in Normal Range, But Forward Cover Is Expected to Decline OECD Commercial Petroleum Inventories 3.0 60 Forward Cover (right axis) 2.9 55 Billion Barrels 2.8 50 2.7 45 Days 2.6 40 2.5 35 2.4 30…
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks 60 Forecast 58 Previous 5-yr Min/Max Range 56 Days of 54 supply 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook July…
World Oil Surplus Production Capacity 6 5 Forecast 4 Million barrels per 3 day 2 1 0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1997 Average Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Lack of Excess Capacity and Low Forward Cover Thrust Prices Upward 80 14 70 12 60 Dollars per Barrel/Forward Cover 10 Million Barrels per Day 50 WTI Spot Price (2005) OECD Forward Cover 8 World Excess Production…
OECD Inventories and Spare Production Capacity Have Explained Most of Recent Price Variation 80 WTI Spot Price 70 60 Dynamic Forecast (Inventories and Dollars per Barrel Spare Capacity) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-92…
U.S. Crude Inventories Projected to be on the High End of Normal Range U.S. Crude Oil Inventory 360 History Forecast 340 Million Barrels 320 300 280 260 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 98 99 00 01 02…
Consumer Prices and Expenditures Heating Oil (Northeast) 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2004 2005 2006 2007 Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption 642 642 589 633 (gals.) Average Price 1.46 1.93 2.44 2.50 Expenditures 935…
World Oil Prices in Three Cases (2004 dollars per barrel) 100 High Price 80 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 History Projections 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Loading...
