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New York Energy Forum – EIA

EIA · Oct 18, 2010 · 23 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 1
    EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook New York Energy Forum October 18, 2010 New York, NY Richard Newell, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Richard Newell, New York Energy Forum, October 2010 1
  2. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 2
    Overview EIA expects average heating bills to be 3% higher this winter than last an increase of 24 to a U.S. average of 986 per household Due to higher fuel prices forecast this winter compared to last 2% higher electricity prices…
  3. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 3
    U.S. households forecast to spend an average of 3% (24) more on heating bills this winter (October 1 March 31) Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel bill forecast than…
  4. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 4
    Winter 2010-11 heating season forecast is 3% warmer than last winter, and 1% warmer than 30-year average U.S. population-weighted heating degree-days NOAA winter 7.4% warmer than last year 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov…
  5. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 5
    Higher natural gas heating bills for some regions this winter Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using natural gas as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 63% 0 -3 -3 South…
  6. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 6
    EIA expects residential natural gas prices to be 6% higher this winter than last Dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) Forecast 25 Winter 20 Residential price 15 10 5 Henry Hub spot price 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010…
  7. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 7
    Future natural gas prices remain uncertain Henry Hub spot price STEO Henry Hub price forecast NYMEX Henry Hub futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval Dollars per million Btu Forecast 14 12 10…
  8. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 8
    Less than 10% chance of natural gas price being higher than 5.50 per MMBtu for January 2011 contract month probability of exceedence 40% 35% 30% 20% 17% 10% 7% 0% 4.50 / MMBtu 5.00 / MMBtu 5.50 / MMBtu Source: EIA STEO…
  9. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 9
    Natural gas inventories are close to last years record-high levels Billion cubic feet Forecast 4,500 10% warmer 4,000 3,500 3,000 Normal 2,500 range 2,000 1,500 10% colder 1,000 500 Base case 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  10. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 10
    Winter electricity bill forecast shows little change from last winter Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using electricity as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 32% 0 -1 0…
  11. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 11
    Winter heating oil bills are likely to be higher in most regions Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using heating oil as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 1% 2 7 9 South 2%…
  12. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 12
    Crude oil price forecasts are very uncertain WTI spot price STEO WTI price forecast NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval Dollars per barrel Forecast 180 160 140…
  13. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 13
    U.S. heating oil retail price forecast to average 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter Dollars per gallon Dollars per barrel 5.00 Forecast 200 Winter 4.00 150 Heating oil price 3.00 100 2.00 50 1.00 WTI crude oil…
  14. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 14
    Uncertainty over future heating oil prices is driven primarily by crude oil prices Heating oil average U.S. wholesale price STEO heating oil wholesale price forecast NYMEX N.Y. harbor heating oil futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence…
  15. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 15
    Less than 10% chance of wholesale heating oil price being higher than 2.75 per gallon for January 2011 contract month probability of exceedence 40% 30% 27% 20% 10% 10% 3% 0% 2.50 / gallon 2.75 / gallon 3.00 / gallon…
  16. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 16
    Going into winter, distillate inventories are well above the upper end of the normal range Million barrels Forecast 200 10% warmer 180 Base case 160 140 Normal range 120 100 10% colder 80 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  17. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 17
    Higher expected propane fuel bills in most regions Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using propane as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 4% -1 11 10 South 4% -13 8 -6…
  18. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 18
    EIA forecasts residential propane prices will average 2.42 per gallon, 24 per gallon higher than last winter Dollars per gallon Forecast 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 Winter 1.00 0.50 0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  19. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 19
    Propane inventories are near the middle of the normal range Million barrels Forecast 80 10% warmer 70 60 50 Normal range 40 30 10% colder 20 10 Base case 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy…
  20. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 20
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
  21. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 21
    Supplemental Richard Newell, New York Energy Forum, October 2010 21
  22. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 22
    The changing balance between global consumption and non-OPEC supply growth can drive oil prices change from prior year change from prior year million barrels per day dollars per barrel 4 100 Forecast 80 3 60 2 40 1 20 0 0…
  23. New York Energy Forum – EIA – slide 23
    When spare capacity is tight, it can drive prices and volatility higher price of light, sweet crude oil spare capacity dollars per barrel million barrels per day 140 20 OPEC surplus capacity Forecast 120 18 WTI crude oil price…

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