Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook For NASEO Winter Fuels Outlook Conference November 1, 2013 Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics &…
EIA works closely with State energy offices NASEO 2013 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference EIA is a co- sponsor with DOEs Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) and the National Association of State Energy Officials…
EIAs Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECs) is contributing more detailed household fuel use data In addition to U.S., region, and division level estimates, RECS now produces estimates for 16 states (12 more than previously); the…
Overview Winter Fuels Outlook focuses on households EIA expects higher prices this winter for homes that heat with natural gas, propane, and electricity; home heating oil prices are expected to be lower than last winter Forecast…
The differences between natural gas, heating oil, and propane prices narrow this winter, with natural gas price 14% higher, heating oil price down 5%, and propane price up 9% U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars…
The U.S. winter 2013-14 heating season forecast is very close to last winter and the 10-year average U.S. current population-weighted heating degree days 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar…
Expenditures are expected to be higher this winter (October 1 March 31) for natural gas, propane, electricity; lower for heating oil Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel…
Although forecast natural gas expenditures are significantly higher, they are still lower than the previous 5-year average % change in fuel expenditures 25% compared with last winter 20% compared with previous 5-winter average…
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Share of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other/no heating DC South U.S. total…
Natural Gas Adam Sieminski, Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook 10 November 1, 2013
Higher natural gas prices raise average fuel bills in all regions this winter Regional share of all U.S. Percent change from last winter (forecast) households that use natural gas as primary space Average Total heating fuel…
Forecast natural gas inventories start this winter about 100 bcf lower than last winter, but 70 bcf above the previous 5-year average billion cubic feet Forecast History 4,500 10% warmer 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 10% colder…
Natural gas pipeline constraints into New England may produce periods of localized higher wholesale pricing Natural gas fueled less than 30% of the electricity generated in New England in 2001, but that figure rose to 52% in 2012.…
Future natural gas prices remain highly uncertain dollars per million Btu History Forecast 7 Henry Hub spot price STEO price forecast 6 NYMEX Henry Hub futures price 5 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval…
Heating Oil Adam Sieminski, Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook 15 November 1, 2013
Going into winter, distillate inventories remain at the low end of their normal range million barrels History Forecast 200 10% warmer 180 base case 160 140 120 100 80 10% colder 60 40 20 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note:…
New York, which represents almost 1/3 of the Northeast heating oil market, now requires ultra-low sulfur fuel 15 ppm 15 ppm Note: Specifications change on July 1 of the years shown, with the exception of Maine's…
Electricity Adam Sieminski, Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook 18 November 1, 2013
Winter electricity bill forecasts are slightly higher than last winter Percent change from last winter (forecast) Regional share of all U.S. households that use electricity as primary space Average Total heating fuel Consumption…
Propane Adam Sieminski, Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook 20 November 1, 2013
Forecast propane expenditures also higher than last winter because of higher prices Regional share of all U.S. Percent change from last winter (forecast) households that use propane as primary space Average Total heating fuel…
Propane inventories remain near the middle of their historical range during the upcoming winter million barrels History Forecast 80 10% warmer 70 60 50 40 30 10% colder 20 10 base case 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note:…
Midwest propane stocks are low PADD 2 propane/propylene stocks million barrels 35 30 25 20 15 5-yr range 10 weekly 5 0 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 2012 2013 Note: Normal range (gray band) represents the…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo International Energy Outlook…
Supplemental slides Adam Sieminski, Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook 25 November 1, 2013
How EIA uses NOAAs heating degree day (HDD) forecasts EIAs HDD forecast is based on NOAAs state-level HDD forecasts but uses a different methodology for regional and U.S. average calculations Key differences between EIA and NOAA winter…
EIA Winter Fuels Outlook focuses on households Forecast of average household expenditures on natural gas, heating oil, propane, and electricity during the winter months Consumption Average household consumption of fuel during the…
EIA expects gasoline prices will fall from the recent peak, with regular gasoline prices this winter averaging about 19 cents per gallon lower than last winter dollars per gallon History Forecast 5 winter 4 regular gasoline retail…
EIA expects residential heating oil prices to average 5% lower this winter than last dollars per gallon History Forecast 5 winter home heating 4 oil retail price 3 2 Brent crude oil spot price 1 0 Jan 2009 Jan 2010…
EIA expects residential natural gas prices to be higher than last winters prices dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) History Forecast 20 winter 18 residential price 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Henry Hub spot price 0 Jan 2009…
The probability of the January 2014 Henry Hub natural gas price being higher than 4.50 per MMBtu is about 11% probability of exceedance 50% 40% Nymex Henry Hub natural gas futures price for delivery 29% during January 2014 = 3.78 per…
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