2006-2007 Winter Fuels Outlook Guy F. Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration National Capital Area Chapter United States Association for Energy Economics October 20, 2006 Washington, DC
Winter 2006/07 expected to be 6 percent colder than last winter, but slightly warmer than normal U.S. heating degree-days population-weighted 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar…
World oil consumption growth is expected to remain strong million barrels per day 3.0 88 History Projections 86 2.5 84 2.0 Rest of World 82 United States Oil Demand 1.5 80 World Oil Growth Demand 1.0 78 76 0.5 China 74…
Growth in U.S. petroleum products consumption is expected to be strong in 2007 thousand barrels per day 600 History Projections 500 400 1.7% 300 200 -0.2% 100 -0.4% 0 -100 -200 -300 2005 2006 2007 Total Motor Gasoline…
World oil surplus production capacity is expected to increase slightly but remain at a low level million barrels per day 6.0 History Projections 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006…
OECD commercial oil stocks are expected to tighten 60 days of supply History Projections 58 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 56 54 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook,…
U.S. crude oil stocks are at very high levels 400 million barrels History Projections 380 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term…
Recently declining crude prices are projected to increase during winter, but not to last winters highs dollars per barrel Crude prices often 100 decline just 90 prior to winter 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 History Projections…
Many factors may affect oil prices in upcoming months OPEC Meeting: Quotas 80 unchanged dollars per barrel Prudhoe Bay production back online Revised NOAA hurricane 75 season forecast Official OPEC Meeting Summer driving season…
Retail heating oil prices are projected to show little change from last winter cents per gallon Oct 2006 March 2007 Average 300 10% Colder = 2.49/gal Base Case = 2.46/gal 250 10% Warmer = 2.43/gal 200 150 100 History…
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is expected to resume 12% 90 10% 80 History Projections 8% 70 6% 60 4% 50 2% 40 0% 30 -2% 20 -4% 10 -6% 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Percent Change (left axis) Billion Cubic…
U.S. natural gas in storage is projected to remain above historical averages, even in cold weather case deviation from 5-year average, billion cubic feet 800 History Projections 600 400 200 0 -200 Jan-04 Jan-05…
Natural gas prices are expected to be significantly lower than last winter Henry Hub Spot Price Residential Price 10% Colder = 8.97/mcf 10% Colder = 13.05/mcf Base Case = 7.39/mcf Base Case = 12.23/mcf 10% Warmer = 5.89/mcf 10%…
Natural gas heating bills are projected to be lower for all regions this winter Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using natural Average Total gas as primary heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West 66%…
Winter heating oil expenditures projected to increase for all regions Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using Average Total heating oil as primary Consumption Price Expenditures heating fuel West +2% -2% +0%…
Winter electricity expenditures are projected to increase for all regions Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using electricity as primary Average Total heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West 30%…
Average winter fuel expenditures are expected to be lower for natural gas and propane than last year, slightly higher for heating oil and electricity % Change from last Winter If 10% Warmer If 10% Colder Fuel Base Case than forecast…
EIA, like most forecasters, has underpredicted oil prices during the last 3 years Mean Average Percent Error EIA 16.2% Error in 6-month ahead forecast, dollars per barrel Consultant A 19.1% 5 Consultant B 15.4% 0 -5 -10 -15…
The Outlook Shows The average U.S. household will pay about 45 less for heating this winter. Lower expenditures are driven by lower prices for natural gas which offset the expected increase in consumption brought about by the…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006 next reference case, November 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006…
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