Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration 2007 Summer Energy Outlook Conference April 17, 2007 Denver, Colorado
Key Factors Driving the Short-Term Fuels Forecast 1) Rising world oil consumption 2) Low global surplus oil production capacity 3) Insufficient crude oil supply growth relative to demand 4) Supply concerns in international oil…
World Oil Consumption Projected to Grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2007 and 1.6 million bbl/d in 2008 3.5 3.0 2.5 Rest of World Million 2.0 US Barrels per 1.5 China Day 1.0 0.5 0.0 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006…
Sluggish Non-OPEC Supply Growth Puts Pressure on OPEC Supply to Meet Demand Growth World Oil Demand Growth Non-OPEC Supply Growth 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 Million barrels 1.2 per day 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2007 2008…
World Oil Spare Production Capacity Projected to Increase, but Still Below Historical Norms 6.0 Forecast 5.0 4.0 Million Barrels 3.0 per Day 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999 Average…
Crude Oil Price (WTI) Projected to Range Between 65-67 per Barrel in 2007 before Falling Slightly 100 74.41 per barrel July 2006 Forecast 90 80 70 Dollars 60 per 50 barrel 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07…
Several Factors Are Driving 2007 U.S. Summer (April September) Outlook for Motor Fuels 1) Increased gasoline demand growth 2) Imports slightly lower 3) Refining capacity constraints and refinery outages 4) Lower gasoline…
Projected Increases in Personal Income and Miles Traveled Drive Up U.S. Gasoline Demand 20% Forecast 15% Change in Motor 10% Gasoline Demand Percent Change 5% 0% -5% -10% 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 2007- 2008 Real Personal…
Average Refinery Production Projected to Increase but Lower Stocks and Imports Strain Downstream Markets Consumption Production Stock Draw Net Imports 0.20 0.14 Million 0.15 0.12 0.11 0.11 barrels 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 per day…
Refinery Utilization Rates Projected to Average About 92%, up from 91.8% Last Summer 100% Forecast 95% 90% 85% Hurricanes Katrina and Rita 80% Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Utilization Rate =…
Summer Ethanol Production Projected to Increase About 30% Over Last Summer Ethanol production capacity expected to continue increasing rapidly in 2007 and 2008 as construction of about 80 new plants and plant expansion projects is…
Summer Retail Gasoline Prices* Projected to Average 2.81 per Gallon 3.50 2006 2007 2005 Avg. 2.84 Forecast Avg. 2.37 Avg. 2.81 3.00 2.50 2004 Dollars Avg. 1.90 per 2.00 Gallon 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-…
Regular Gasoline Summer Prices Vary by Region U.S. Average = 2.84 U.S. Average = 2.81 3.50 3.04 3.07 3.00 2.84 2.77 2.75 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.69 2.79 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2006 2007 (Forecast) East Coast…
Summer Retail Diesel Prices Projected to Average 2.82 per gallon, down 6 cents from Last Summer 3.50 2007 2006 (forecast) Avg. 2.88 3.00 Avg. 2.82 2005 Avg. 2.41 2.50 2004 Cents 2.00 Avg. 1.77 per Gallon 1.50 1.00…
Natural Gas Spot Prices Projected to Slowly Rise Over the Next Several Months 16 October, 2005 December, 2005 13.83 mcf 13.44 mcf 14 Forecast Dollars 12 per 10 thousand cubic feet 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05…
Growth in U.S. Residential Electricity Prices Expected to Slow during 2007 18% 12 16% Monthly Electricity Price (right axis) Cents 10 14% per kilowatt 12% 8 hour 10% Forecast 8% 6 Annual Consumption Growth (left axis) 6%…
Summary Oil and Gasoline: High world oil demand continues to keep crude oil prices high and increase competition for gasoline imports. Crude oil expected to remain above 60 for the rest of 2007 and 2008; Gasoline prices are…
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