Biofuels in the United States: Context and Outlook Biofuels Workshop Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences January 24, 2013 Washington, DC By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information…
Topics addressed Current role of biofuels Biofuels outlook EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case Biofuels and fuel market segmentation Biofuels in the context of multiple policy issues Howard Gruenspecht January 24,…
Liquid biofuels currently provide about 1 percent of total U.S. energy U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 120 100 24% Natural gas 26% Natural gas 80 6% 8%…
The import share of U.S. liquid fuels use has been declining since 2005 U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 Biofuels excluding imports 20 Natural gas plant liquids 12% 5% 15 Liquids from natural gas and coal 38%…
Transportation sector motor gasoline has been declining since 2007 Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 30 25 22% Diesel 20 11% Jet fuel 4% Other 2% 15 Pipeline fuel 10 Motor gasoline 60%…
Despite recent growth, ethanol and biodiesel provide a modest share of U.S. motor fuels Biofuel consumption 12% 10% volume 8% Ethanol share of gasoline 6% energy 4% 2% Biodiesel share of distillate 0% 2000 2004 2008…
Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline on a volume basis Gasoline and ethanol prices and ethanol margins Dollars per gallon Ethanol Margin (Corn Oil) Gulf Coast Motor Gasoline Iowa ethanol 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2009 2010…
..but more expensive than gasoline on an energy content basis Gasoline and ethanol prices and ethanol margins Dollars per million Btu Ethanol Margin (Corn Oil) Gulf Coast Motor Gasoline Iowa ethanol 40 30 20 10 0 2009…
Biodiesel costs more than than diesel fuel Diesel prices, biodiesel prices, and biodiesel margins Dollars per gallon 6.00 Iowa Biodiesel U.S. Gulf Coast Diesel 5.00 Biodiesel Margin 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 2009 2010…
Since 2010, the United States has been a net ethanol exporter; we have two-way ethanol trade with Brazil Imports and exports Million gallons 1200 i U.S. Imports from Brazil U.S. Exports to Brazil m p Total U.S. Imports Total U.S.…
As tax incentives are phased out, biofuels policy is increasingly focused on mandates Three Federal tax incentives expired at the end of 2011 one remains Ethanol blending tax credit (45 cents per gallon) Biodiesel blending tax credit…
The targets for cellulosic biofuels are very ambitious Renewable Fuels Standard requirements Billion ethanol-gallon equivalents Advanced Cellulosic Total Biofuel Biofuel Biodiesel Year (including (including Statutory EPA Final…
The Outlook for Biofuels: AEO2013 Reference case projections Howard Gruenspecht January 24, 2013 13
Key results from the AEO2013 Reference case: Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade Natural gas production grows faster…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency. Liquid biofuels gain share but remain a small source. U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000…
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand is projected to fall further Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 30 25 22% Diesel 29% CNG/LNG 20 11% 4% 4% 2% Jet fuel 13% E85 15 Other…
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic crude oil production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 6 Tight oil 4…
U.S. import share of liquid fuels falls due to increased production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 25 Biofuels excluding imports…
Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 Renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 40 Legislated RFS in…
Two closing scene setters Howard Gruenspecht January 24, 2013 20
Biofuels can play several different roles in the very complex market for motor fuels Ethanol competes, or could compete, in three distinct market segments, with very different economic characteristics: Octane source Volume extender…
Biofuels intersect with multiple policy issues Petroleum import dependence How do biofuels fit in relative to other potential import reducers, including additional vehicle efficiency improvements, increased reliance on natural gas as…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
Loading...
