The Outlook for Energy-Related GHG Emissions USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Climate Change Policy Issues October 15, 2010 Calgary, AB Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator Howard Gruenspecht, Richard Newell, SAIS,…
Topics Addressed Comparing the U.S. and Canada Insights from analyses of recent U.S. GHG emissions mitigation policy proposals Factors influencing U.S. energy-related GHG emissions in the absence of an explicit GHG mitigation…
Insights from analyses of recent U.S. GHG emissions mitigation policy proposals
APA (aka KL) requires a cumulative 39 billion metric ton reduction in emissions between 2013 and 2035, but the actual U.S. reduction depends on offset use and banking behavior Greenhouse gas emissions (billion metric tons carbon…
Offset comprise the majority of compliance with the APA cap, except in cases where their availability is limited Cumulative compliance 2013-2035 (billion metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent) 70 Energy-related carbon dioxide Carbon…
Recent cap & trade proposals provide relatively modest reductions in U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions thru 2035 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent History Projections 9,000 8,000 Total greenhouse gas emissions -ref 7,000…
78%-85% of U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emission reductions in 2035 come from electric power billion metric tons carbon dioxide 7 Electric power History Projections for 2035 Transportion 6 Industrial 5 2.65 Buildings 2.36…
Factors influencing U.S. energy-related GHG emissions in the absence of an explicit GHG mitigation policy
Several factors could push energy use and/or emissions below the AEO2010 reference case trajectory Re-examination of forecast for vehicle miles of travel Light-duty fuel economy standards beyond MY 2016, as discussed in recent…
operating costs: existing plants with and w/o climate policies Fuel Cost for Existing Coal and Combined Climate policies affect the Cycle Natural Gas Units with a Value operating costs of both coal-fired Placed on Carbon Dioxide…
Bottom Line Even in the absence of national policies to reduce energy-related GHG emissions, it is not hard to envision scenarios in which such emissions in 2020 are at or below the levels projected in recent analyses of the WM and…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…