Current Topics at EIA U.S. Association for Energy Economics November 20, 2009, Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 1
Overview EIA mission U.S. natural gas developments Energy and Financial Markets Initiative Climate policy analysis Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 2
EIA mission, resources, and core functions Mission: Independent Statistics and Analysis EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and…
U.S. natural gas shale plays Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 4
Horizontal shale gas rig counts slowed, but have rebounded Max Count Min Count 300 250 Marcellus 200 150 Barnett 100 Woodford Haynesville 50 Fayetteville 0 May-07 May-08 May-09 Jan-07 Jan-08…
Production in key gas shale plays is growing rapidly Billion cubic meters 90 80 Marcellus 70 Haynesville 60 Woodford 50 Fayetteville 40 Barnett 30 Antrim 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*…
Year-end domestic gas reserves increased 3% in 2008, despite higher production and lower prices 280 Total Reserves Additions 27.5 Proved Reserves 2008 270 Proved Reserves 2007 New Reservoirs 0.2 2008 Dry Gas in Old…
New technologies also force a reassessment of gas resources 2,000 PGC Resource Estimates (Tcf) 1,800 Speculative 1,600 Possible 1,400 Probable 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 90 92 88 94 98 00 96 02…
Henry Hub spot prices remain highly uncertain Henry Hub spot STEO Henry Hub forecast NYMEX futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval Dollars per million Btu 16 History Projections 14 12 10 8…
Expected near term WTI oil price is flat, but highly uncertain WTI spot STEO WTI forecast NYMEX futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval Dollars per million Btu 200 180 History Projections 160…
Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors Non-OPEC supply growth Inventories OPEC production Global economic decisions growth Global Spare production Oil Prices Speculation, hedging, capacity investment Exchange rates…
EIA recently launched the Energy and Financial Markets Initiative to track all the factors affecting energy prices 1. Collection of critical energy information to improve market transparency Nov 2 Federal Register notice initiating…
EIA Analysis of H.R.2454 The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 13
ACESA requires 24.6- billion-metric-ton reduction in covered GHG emissions over 2012-2030; actual reductions could be smaller or larger depending on the use of offsets and banking behavior CO2-equivalent emissions, billion metric tons…
Main cases in EIAs analysis Case Name Assumptions Integrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of Basic ACESA. Same as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond Zero Bank 2030. Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy…
Energy sector reductions (2 bottom sections) vary with availability of offsets and low-emitting generation options Cumulative compliance, 2012-2030 (billion metric tons) Energy-Related CO2 Carbon Capture and Storage Non-Energy-CO2…
Projected allowance prices depend on the availability of offsets and low/no carbon electricity generation technologies (2007 dollars per metric ton CO2-equivalent) 200 Basic Zero Bank High Offsets 180 High Cost No International No…
The electricity sector dominates projected reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions (million metric tons CO2) 2030 6,000 Electric Pow er Transportation Industrial 5,000 2639 2433 Buildings 1886 1831 4,000 1573 1074 384 908…
2030 generation shifts from conventional coal to nuclear, renewables, and fossil+CCS; natural gas use grows dramatically if other options are limited (billion kilowatthours) Coal Coal w /CCS Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas w /CCS Nuclear…
Electricity capacity additions dominated by mix of nuclear, renewables, fossil+CCS, but natural gas is larger if those options are limited (thousand megawatts) 600 Renewable Nuclear 500 Natural Gas with CCS Natural Gas 400 Coal…
Efficiency programs and higher electricity prices reduce electricity demand growth Annual percent growth in electricity use 3.0% 2.5% 2.39% 2.0% 2007 to 2030 Growth 1.5% 1.0% 1.15% 0.90% 0.5% 0.64% 0.72% 0.72% 0.57% 0.56%…
Electricity prices stay near baseline through 2025 in all but one case, then rise to higher levels through 2030 (2007 cents per kilowatthour, all sectors average) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Reference Basic Zero Bank 4 High Offsets…
Present-value GDP losses over 2012-2030 range from 0.2% to 0.4%; consumption losses range from 0.1% to 0.3% in 5 analysis cases. Impacts are much higher in the No International/Limited Alternatives case. Cumulative Change in Real GDP…
For more information Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.doe.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy…
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