Energy Outlook For NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Agenda Winter Fuels Outlook Drilling Productivity Report Geopolitical implications of shale International Energy Outlook Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 2
EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 3
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Share of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other/no heating DC South U.S. total…
Expenditures are expected to be higher this winter (October 1 March 31) for natural gas, propane, electricity; lower for heating oil Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel…
Although forecast natural gas expenditures are significantly higher, they are still lower than the previous 5-year average % change in fuel expenditures 25% compared with last winter 20% compared with previous 5-year average…
The differences between natural gas, heating oil, and propane prices narrow this winter, with natural gas price 14% higher, heating oil price down 5%, and propane price up 9% U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars…
Key insights of the winter fuels outlook EIA expects higher prices this winter for homes that heat with natural gas, propane, and electricity; home heating oil prices are expected to be lower than last winter Forecast temperatures…
EIA Drilling Productivity Report Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 9
Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in production Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 10
The gas-directed rig count plummeted in 2009 but natural gas production did not follow oil and natural gas rig count and natural gas production U.S. rig count billion cubic feet per day 2,500 90 natural gas production 80 2,000 70 total…
Oil and natural gas are increasingly developed from the same wells share of new wells by type of hydrocarbons produced 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% oil 50% 56% gas 40% both 30% 37% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
Oil production has continued to rise in 2013 despite a leveling off of rig counts U.S. crude oil production rig count million barrels per day 3000 8 7 2500 oil production 6 (right axis) 2000 5 1500 4 total rigs(left axis) 3…
EIAs Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses a series of new metrics to assess the production and depletion trends of oil and natural gas wells Rig count Well classification Drilling efficiency Productivity of new wells…
DPR Bakken page 15
Key insights on drilling productivity and production trends Higher drilling efficiency and new well productivity, rather than an increase in the rig count, have been the main drivers of recent production growth In the six plays…
Rigs needed to sustain production in the Bakken play Bakken rigs needed to sustain prior months production 300 rig count 250 estimated rigs needed - oil estimated rigs needed - natural gas 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09…
Geopolitical implications of shale Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 18
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources shale and tight oil production dry shale gas production million barrels per day billion cubic feet per day 2.8 35 Eagle…
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States: Refinery operations/investment Logistics infrastructure investment…
Domestic crude availability and low natural gas prices have supported product exports annual U.S. net imports of total petroleum products, 1949 2012 million barrels per day 4 imports 3 net product 2 exporter 1 net imports 0 -1…
China poised to become the worlds largest net oil importer later this year net imports for China and the United States millions of barrels per day History Forecast 10 United States net imports 9 8 7 6 5 China net imports 4 China…
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources Shale oil Shale gas Rank Country Billion barrels Rank Country Trillion cubic feet 1 Russia 75 1 China 1,115 2 United States 58 2 Argentina 802 3 China 32 3 Algeria…
Reproducibility of shale development may have limits Many factors support production from U.S. shale resources that do not exist in many other countries: Resource quality and geologic distribution details matter Major private ownership…
Geopolitical implications of shale resources Shale oil is both light and sweet the rapid growth in its supply has implications for crude oil pricing relationships, the value of different refinery configurations, refinery output…
EIA International Energy Outlook Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 26
Key findings of the EIAs International Energy Outlook 2013 With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040; half of the increase is attributed to China and India Renewable…
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption out to 2040 world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200 liquids 34% 23% coal (including biofuels)…
OPEC crude oil disruptions have reduced global surplus oil production capacity surplus oil production capacity million barrels per day EIA's Surplus Production Capacity Estimate 7 IEA's Surplus Production Capacity Estimate 6 5…
By 2040, Chinas energy use will be double the U.S. level; Indias a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 220 200 China 150…
World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040 carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2010 Projections 25 20 coal 15 liquid fuels 10 natural gas 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
There are many issues that increase uncertainty Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China The timing of Japans full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Drilling Productivity Report http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling International Energy Outlook…
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