Transformation of the U.S. energy landscape Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics &…
EIA principles Established as the single, independent federal government authority for energy information and mandated to collect, assemble, evaluate, and analyze energy information Provide relevant energy statistics and analysis as…
U.S. Overview Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 3
Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product U.S. energy intensity index, 1980 = 1.0 History 2011 Projections 1.2 1.0 energy use per capita 0.8 0.6 energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP 0.4 0.2 0.0 1980 1985…
Natural gas and renewables increase their share of primary energy use through 2040 U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 120 100 28% 26% natural gas 80 renewables (excluding biofuels) 11% 8% 1% 2% 60 8%…
Energy production by fuel natural gas dominates through 2040 U.S. delivered energy production quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 35 natural gas 30 25 coal 20 liquids 15 nuclear 10 non-hydro renewables 5 hydropower 0…
Why we might could will be wrong Changing policies and regulations Changing consumer preferences Faster / slower economic growth Faster / slower technological progress Different relative fuel prices Technological…
Renewable energy Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 8
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 6 5 30% natural…
Renewable electricity generation by type, including end-use generation, 2008-2040 U.S. electricity net generation billion kilowatthours 2011 Projections 900 800 solar 700 wind 600 500 geothermal 400 biomass 300 200 hydropower…
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 U.S. non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2011 Projections 600 500 400 wind 300 200 biomass power sector…
Natural gas continues to make up the largest share of additions to electricity generating capacity through the projection U.S. capacity additions gigawatts History 2011 Projections 60 50 other renewables solar wind 40 natural…
U.S. growth in GDP flattens out while growth in electricity use declines through most of the projection percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) 2011 14% History Projections 12% 10% 8% electricity use 6% 2011 2040 4%…
Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2013 Reference Case 15 Carbon Fee 25 Carbon Fee 5 5 5 2011 30% 4 4 34% 4…
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines while diesel demand increases U.S. transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 30 25 22% diesel 29% CNG/LNG 20 11% 4% 4% 2% jet fuel 13%…
Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 40 legislated RFS in…
Domestic resource dynamics Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 17
Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in production Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 18
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. shale and tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels per day billion cubic feet per day 2.8…
Natural gas production in the United States has dramatically increased from shale and tight sources U.S. natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 shale gas 20 15 tight gas 10 lower 48 onshore…
Largest increase in share of natural gas consumption occur in the transportation sector U.S. dry natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 30 25 electric power 32% 31% 20 industrial 15 33% 33% 10 2%…
Growth of natural gas in transportation, excluding pipeline use, led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu bcf/day History 2011 Projections 2.0 5.33…
Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports in the Reference case U.S. natural gas supply and consumption trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 40 net exports, 2040 (12%) net imports, 2011 (8%) 30 total…
Domestic crude availability and low natural gas prices have supported product exports annual U.S. net imports of total petroleum products, 1949 2012 million barrels per day 4 imports 3 net product 2 exporter 1 net imports 0 -1…
United States becomes net exporter of liquids under high resource and decreased demand scenario U.S. net import share of supply million barrels per day History 2005 2011 Projections 25 net exports (8% in 2040) 20 consumption 15…
Global issues Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 26
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of world energy consumption out to 2040 world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200 liquids 34% 23% coal (including…
By 2040, Chinas energy use will be double the U.S. level; Indias a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 220 200 China 150…
Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations May 2013 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI Adam Sieminski, Georgetown…
World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type world carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2010 Projections 25 20 coal 15 liquid fuels 10 natural gas 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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