Oil Market Outlook to 2010 Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration CERA Week - Oil Markets: Will the Supply Surge Arrive February 7, 2006 Houston, Texas
Has a Supply Surge Already Begun Available data suggest that oil demand has been growing rapidly over the past two years. Although markets were undoubtedly tight, supply volumes rose substantially to meet consumption and stock…
What are Prospects for a Supply Surge by 2010 Supply Factors New projects in the pipeline imply further capacity additions by 2010. While new projects are closely watched, decline rates in existing fields may be even more critical…
What are Prospects for a Supply Surge by 2010 Demand Factors Consumption is highly sensitive to economic growth, which is subject to unpredictable short-term cycles unrelated to energy drivers. Possibility of increasing…
World oil demand growth slowed in 2005: we expect it to increase through 2010 3.0 2.5 Rest of World Million Barrels per Day (MMBD) US 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 China 0.0 1990- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009…
OPEC crude oil production capacity could grow 4-5 MMBD through 2010 Saudi Arabia Iraq Nigeria Algeria United Arab Emirates Libya Kuwait Qatar Venezuela Indonesia Iran -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8…
Conventional Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by over 2 MMBD through 2010 Change in MMBD (2005-2010) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 S . ca pe ia na a o a a st n .Z ic U ad si…
Non-conventional oil output expected to grow over 2 MMBD through 2010 0.9 Change in MMBD (2005-2010) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 U.S. Other N. Western Asia Middle East Africa S. & Cent. America Europe…
Conclusions We expect global spare capacity to increase roughly 2-3 million barrels per day by 2010. This projection is sensitive to both supply and demand developments. Continued supply growth depends on price levels and price…
Sources Short Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, December 2005, full report, February 2006 International Energy Outlook, June 2005 available at: www.eia.doe.gov
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