The Future of Transportation Fuels in the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration 2008 MIT NESCAUM Symposium on Urban Transportation Dedham, MA August 12, 2008
World oil prices are expected to decline than rise again nominal dollars per barrel 200 History Projections 175 High Price 150 125 100 Reference 75 Low Price 50 25 0 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030 Annual Energy…
Liquid fuels continue to dominate primary energy consumption in the United States quadrillion Btu 50 History Projections 40 Liquid Fuels 30 Coal Natural Gas 20 Renewables 10 Nuclear 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010…
Transportation is the largest end-use consuming sector, although the commercial sector has the fastest growth quadrillion Btu 35 2006 30 2030 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Annual…
Higher energy prices reduce the demand for liquids and natural gas quadrillion Btu 140 120 118.0 117.4 110.8 108.8 103.3 Renewables 99.5 102.9 100 Nuclear 80 Coal 60 Liquids 40 20 Natural Gas 0 2006 Reference High…
The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption million barrels per day 20 History Projections 15 Transportation 10 5 Industrial Electric Power Residential and Commercial 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010…
U.S. liquids consumption is much lower in AEO2008 million barrels per day 30 27.0 25 24.0 21.6 22.0 22.8 20.7 21.0 Electric Power 20 Industrial Residential and Commercial 15 10 Transportation 5 0 2006 AEO2007…
Motor gasoline is the predominate liquid fuel in the United States million barrels per day 25 History Projections Total 20 15 10 Motor Gasoline 5 Other Distillate Jet Fuel Residual 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010…
More than half of transportation energy use is for light-duty vehicles quadrillion Btu 20 History Projections 15 Light-Duty Vehicles 10 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 5 Air Rail Water 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030…
Average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles is expected to reach 36.6 miles per gallon miles per gallon 45 Projections History Cars 40 All Light-Duty Vehicles High Price 35 30 Light Trucks 25 20 All Light-Duty Vehicles -…
Transportation energy use shifts slightly from petroleum to biofuels quadrillion Btu 20 2006 2030 Reference 2030 High Price 15 Biofuels includes ethanol, liquids from biomass, and biodiesel. Diesel excludes liquids from biomass…
Corn ethanol dominates, but cellulosic ethanol gains billion gallons 20 History Projections Corn Ethanol 15 10 Cellulosic Ethanol 5 Other Feedstock 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Most ethanol is blended into gasoline billion gallons 20 History Projections 15 Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline 10 Ethanol in E85 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
A variety of fuel sources supports the new renewable fuel standard billion credits 40 History Projections 35 Legislated RFS Table Values RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments 30 25 Liquids from Biomass Biodiesel 20 Net Ethanol…
Sales of full hybrids, diesel, and flex-fuel vehicles spur increases in fuel economy thousand units 3,500 2006 2030 Reference 2030 High Price 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Hybrids* Diesel Flex-Fuel *Only…
Unconventional light-duty vehicles constitute 45 percent of sales in 2030 thousand units 3,500 Hybrids Flex Fuel 3,000 Turbo Direct Injection Diesel 2,500 Gaseous Electric Fuel Cell 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2015 2030…
The net import share of liquids declines million barrels per day 30 History Projections High Price 25 Reference 20 Consumption Net Imports 45% 54% 15 60% 10 Domestic supply High Price Reference 5 0 1970 1980 1990…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, June 2008 International Energy Outlook 2008, June 2007, full report August 2008 Examples of…
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