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2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA

EIA · Jun 24, 2014 · 30 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 1
    Exploring the implications of low growth in electricity demand For 2014 NYISO Energy Conference June 24, 2014 New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics &…
  2. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 2
    In EIAs AEO2014 Reference Case, growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 29% from 2012 to 2040 percent growth Annual Growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) 2012 Period Electricity use GDP 14% History 1950s 9.8 4.1…
  3. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 3
    What might a low electricity demand growth future look like Assumptions used to achieve low electricity demand growth: Applied best available technology to buildings, and layered on greater industrial motor efficiency Assumptions are…
  4. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 4
    Historical and projected end-use electricity sales billion kilowatthours (with percent change, 2012-2040) 1,800 Reference case 1,800 1,800 5,000 +27% +25% +21% 1,600 1,600 1,600 4,500 1,400 1,400 1,400 4,000 0% +30% 0% 3,500 1,200…
  5. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 5
    Average electricity demand growth rates vary across regions 2012 - 2040 2012 - 2040 Reference Low Growth Region case Region case Total U.S. 0.80% Total U.S. 0.00% New York City 0.10% New York City -0.70% Long Island 0.10% Long…
  6. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 6
    Utility bill savings nearly balance households increased costs for more efficient equipment, insulation Change in per-household expenditures and electric bills relative to Reference case 2012 per year 600 Table: Annual per household…
  7. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 7
    More fossil capacity is retired in the Low Growth case U.S. electric power sector capacity retirements gigawatts (cumulative) Reference case Low Growth case 120 Coal 100 Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable / Other 80 60 40…
  8. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 8
    Capacity additions decline dramatically in the Low Growth case U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts 2012 Reference case 30 History Projections Other Renewables Solar 25 Wind Natural gas/oil 20 Nuclear Hydro /…
  9. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 9
    In the Low Growth case, total carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector in 2040 are 22% below the Reference case Total carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons CO2 2012 3,000 History Projections 2,500 Reference case…
  10. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 10
    Gas generation grows much more slowly in the Low Growth case U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Reference case Low Growth case 6 6 History 2012 Projections History 2012 Projections 5 5 35% 24% 4 4 44% Natural…
  11. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 11
    End use sales are flat in the Low Growth case, but direct use grows due to technology assumptions Total electricity use billion kilowatthours Reference case Low Growth case 2012 2012 6,000 6,000 History Projections History Projections…
  12. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 12
    Projected end-use electricity prices are lower in the Low Growth case Average end-use electricity price, all sectors 2012 cents per kilowatthour 2012 11.5 History Projections 11 Reference case 10.5 10 Low Growth case…
  13. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 13
    Declines in residential electricity generation prices are partially offset by near-term increases in transmission and distribution prices Average electricity price components, residential sector 2012 cents per kilowatthour 9 2012…
  14. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 14
    In the long term, lower demand growth leads to lower energy prices in competitive wholesale electricity markets Average marginal energy prices 2012 per megawatthour 100 100 100 Reference 80 80 80 60 60 60 Low Growth 40 40 40 20…
  15. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Delivered coal and natural gas prices are reduced in the Low Growth case Average delivered fuel prices to electric power plants 2012 per million Btu 2012 10 History Projections Reference case natural gas 5 Low Growth case…
  16. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 16
    EIA can run what-if scenarios and analyses which can help explore the various implications of grid modernization and fuel switching Fuel Switching Drivers Levelized electricity costs Plant retirements Accelerated retirements cases…
  17. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 17
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
  18. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Supplementary slides 2014 NYISO Energy Conference June 24, 2014 18
  19. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 19
    Low Growth case uses a combination of assumptions that result in zero growth in end-use electricity sales AEO2014 Best Available Demand Technology case assumptions for the buildings sectors Future equipment purchases assume only the…
  20. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 20
    Average levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, in the Reference case, 2020 and 2040 new power plant costs 2012 cents per kilowatthour Fixed Variable costs, 2020 Capital costs costs including fuel Coal…
  21. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 21
    Accelerated power plant retirements and nuclear side case assumptions Accelerated Coal Retirements case Starts from AEO2014 High Coal Cost case, with coal prices 68% above Reference case in 2040 Annual O&M increase of 3% in real terms…
  22. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 22
    Natural gas and renewables capacity additions are expected to fill the void left by accelerated coal and nuclear retirements through 2040 Cumulative retirements of coal-fired generating capacity in four cases cumulative capacity…
  23. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 23
    Natural gas and renewables generation share increases through 2040 in accelerated retirement cases but overall electricity demand decreases slightly due to higher natural gas prices net electricity generation billion kilowatt-hours…
  24. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 24
    Delivered natural gas increases modestly across all cases by 2040 due to increase in natural gas demand for generation natural gas prices 2012 dollars per thousand cubic feet 10 Reference Accelerated Nuclear Retirements Accelerated…
  25. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 25
    Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours History Projections 13% 2012 6 1993 2025 2040 5…
  26. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 26
    Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2014 reference case and extended policies side case U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2014 Reference Case Extended Policies Case 6 6 2012 5 5 4 35% 4 28% 30% Natural…
  27. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 27
    Additional Analysis Case Definitions 10 and 25 Carbon Dioxide Allowance Fee Cases Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at 10 or 25 per metric ton in 2015 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040.…
  28. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 28
    Changing electricity generation mix in Reference case and carbon dioxide fee allowance side cases 2014 Reference Case 10 CO2 Allowance Fee Case 25 CO2 Allowance Fee Case U.S. electricity net generation trillion kWh trillion kWh 2012…
  29. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 29
    Gas-fueled units account for most projected capacity additions in the AEO2014 Reference case U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts History Projected 60 Other Renewables 50 Solar Wind 40 Oil and Natural Gas 30…
  30. 2014 NYISO Energy Conference – EIA – slide 30
    Growth in buildings sector distributed generation contributes to the shift toward natural gas and renewable generation electricity net generation billion kilowatthours per year Projections Growth in PV generation History 2012 140…

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