Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration DC Chapter of American Association of Blacks in Energy Washington, DC April 28, 2008
World oil prices are higher in all AEO2008 cases nominal dollars per barrel 200 History Projections 175 High Price 150 125 100 Reference 75 Low Price 50 25 0 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Liquid fuels continue to dominate primary energy consumption in the United States quadrillion Btu 50 History Projections 40 Liquid Fuels 30 Coal Natural Gas 20 Renewables 10 Nuclear 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010…
The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption million barrels per day 20 History Projections 15 Transportation 10 5 Industrial Residential and Commercial Electric Power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010…
Average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles is expected to reach 36.6 miles per gallon miles per gallon 45 Projections History Cars 40 All Light-Duty Vehicles 35 30 Light Trucks 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1995 2005…
Transportation energy use shifts slightly from petroleum to biofuels quadrillion Btu 20 2006 2030 15 Biofuels includes ethanol, liquids from biomass, and biodiesel. Diesel excludes liquids from biomass and biodiesel. Motor…
Unconventional light-duty vehicles constitute 45 percent of sales in 2030 thousand units 3,500 Hybrids Flex Fuel 3,000 Turbo Direct Injection Diesel 2,500 Gaseous Electric Fuel Cell 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2015 2030…
Crude oil production is primarily from the onshore and deep offshore million barrels per day 8 History Projections 6 Total 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Deepwater Offshore Shallow Water Offshore Alaska 0 1990 2000 2005…
Dependence on imports of liquid fuels and other petroleum declines by 2030 million barrels per day 25 History Projections 20 Consumption Net Imports 54% 15 60% 10 Domestic Supply 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010…
Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector declines after the next 10 years trillion cubic feet 10 History Projections Industrial* 8 Electric Power 6 Residential 4 Commercial 2 Transportation** 0 1990 2000…
Dependence on natural gas net imports declines slightly trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net Imports 14% 20 16% Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2006 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 4 2006 10…
Unconventional natural gas production will account for nearly half of domestic supply trillion cubic feet 10 History Projections Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional 8 6 Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore Lower 48…
Net pipeline imports fall as supplies from Canada decline and exports to Mexico increase; LNG imports grow rapidly trillion cubic feet 4 History Projections 3 Canada 2 Overseas LNG 1 0 Mexico -1 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010…
Natural gas wellhead prices will decline before rising again 2006 dollars per thousand cubic feet 8 History Projections 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Coal is predominantly consumed for electricity generation with growing use for CTL. quadrillion Btu 35 29.9 30 25.9 25 22.5 23.0 Electric Power 20 15 10 5 Coal-to- Liquids Other 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. electricity consumption grows slowly in all sectors billion kilowatthours 2,000 History Projections Commercial 1,500 Residential Industrial 1,000 500 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
Coal and renewables gain larger shares of electricity generation, but nuclear generation also increases billion kilowatthours 3,000 54 - percent of total 49 2,000 2006 2030 1,000 18 19 20 14 13 10 2 1 0 Coal Nuclear…
Nonhydroelectric renewables make significant gains billion kilowatthours 400 356 300 286 Geothermal Solar Wind 200 169 Biomass 97 100 MSW and Landfill Gas 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Price of electricity follows pattern of delivered fuels used at power plants 2006 cents per kilowatthour 12 10 8 6 4 History Projections 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Carbon dioxide emissions grow at a slower rate than energy consumption million metric tons 3,500 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions Electricity 8,000 Coal 7,500 Natural Gas 3,000 7,000 Petroleum 2030 6,500 2,500 2006 6,000…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008, full report, May 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next update June…