Natural Gas Markets: Recent Changes and Key Drivers for LDC Gas Forum September 11, 2012 Chicago, Il by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis…
U.S. Natural Gas Injection Season 1999-2012 Billion Cubic Feet 5,000 end of injection 4,000 season July-October 3,000 injection April-June injection 2,000 start of injection season 1,000 0 -1,000 net withdrawals -2,000…
Natural Gas use for electric power Billion cubic feet per day 40 17 of top 25 highest Power Burn days 35 since 2005 occurred June 28 - August 9, 2012 30 2012 Power 25 20 15 2005-2011 Power Burn Range 10 5 0 10/16…
U.S. Electricity Output from Natural Gas and Coal Gigawatthours 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jul-04 Feb-05 Jul-11 Feb-12 Jan-01 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-01 Dec-03 Sep-05 Nov-06…
Electric Power Sector Natural Gas Consumption: Sept thru March Billion cubic feet 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 (STEO) Source: U.S. Energy…
Probability of the December 2012 Henry Hub contract expiring above price levels 100% Average of the 5 trading days ending on 80% 1-Aug-2012 60% 6-Sep-2012 40% 20% 0% 1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25…
September Probability Distributions of December Future Contracts With Actual Contract Prices Traded in September 9% 8% Probability of Contract Settlements at 7% Dec-12 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-05 6% Price 9/2012 Price 9/2002 Price…
Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 120 Wind, solar, geothermal and biomass Other Renewables 5% 100 2% 6% 5% 4% 1% 80 Liquid biofuels 25% Natural gas 26% 60 9%…
Technically recoverable dry gas resources U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 3,000 Unproved Shale Gas Unproved Other Gas (including Alaska* and offshore) 2,500 Proved Reserves (all types and locations) 2,203 Cumulative…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10 5 Net imports 0 -5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015…
Global spot natural gas and crude oil prices vary widely Global spot natural gas and crude oil prices U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit 482 1,460 273 Source: EIA based on Bloomberg as of 6/25/2012…
Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 49% 20 Shale gas 23% 15 26% Tight gas 22% 10 9% Non-associated…
Electric power and industrial use drives much of the future domestic natural gas demand growth in the Reference case U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year History Projections 30 25 Electric 34% power 20 31% 15 32%…
U.S. production of shale gas in four cases, 2000-2035 dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2010 Projections 24 20 High TRR 16 High EUR 12 Reference Low EUR 8 4 Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR)…
Natural gas price projections vary based on resource base assumptions lower-48 average natural gas wellhead price 2010 dollars per thousand cubic feet History 2010 Projections 10 8 Low EUR Reference 6 High EUR 4 High TRR…
Operating costs: existing plants with and without a value on carbon Fuel Cost for Existing Coal and Combined The crossover point for least-cost Cycle Natural Gas Units with a Value Placed on Carbon Dioxide Emissions dispatch of coal…
While electricity consumption grows by 21% over the projection, the annual rate of growth slows percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 2010 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10…
Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2010 Projections 6 5 28% 4 Natural gas 24% Renewables 15% 3…
The ratio of oil to natural gas prices remains high through 2035 in EIAs AEO2012 Reference case projection ratio of oil price to natural gas price History 2010 Projections 5 4 Oil and natural gas prices 2010 dollars per million Btu…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Today In Energy www.eia.gov/todayinenergy Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Monthly Energy Review…
U.S. Energy Breakdown by Fuel and Sector Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2010 Howard Gruenspecht August 28, 2012 22
Underground sources of natural gas Source: modified from U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 0113-01. Howard Gruenspecht Washington, DC - May 16, 2011 23
Working Underground Natural Gas Storage Capacity Additions, 2008- 2011 Billion cubic feet 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Demonstrated Peak Working Gas Working Gas Design Capacity Capacity 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S.…
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