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AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA

EIA · Jun 26, 2007 · 18 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 1
    The Long-run Outlook for Oil Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration AAPG/SPE International Reserves Conference Washington, DC June 26, 2007
  2. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 2
    Outline EIAs current outlook to 2030 Thinking beyond 2030 2
  3. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 3
    Average Annual GDP and Population Growth for Selected Regions, 2004-2030 7.5 GDP 6.5 Population 5.5 Percent per Year 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 es a st a na a pe n a il re az di…
  4. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 4
    World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, 100 1980-2030 100 80 Reference Case 2005 Dollars per Barre Low World Oil Price High World Oil Price 59 60 40 36 20 History Projections 0 1980 1990 2000 2010…
  5. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 5
    World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 300 History Projections 250 34% Liquids 28% Quadrillion Btu 200 38% 24% Coal 150 26% Natural Gas Share of World 100 Total 23% Renewables 8% 50 7% 6% 6% Nuclear 0 1980 1985…
  6. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 6
    World Liquids Consumption by Region, 2004 and 2030 North America Non-OECD Asia OECD Europe OECD Asia Central and South America Middle East 2004 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 2030 Africa 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Million Barrels…
  7. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 7
    World Liquids Production, 2004-2030 120 118 Total Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 100 80 60 Non-OPEC (Conventional) 54 53 40 OPEC (Conventional) 20 Unconventional 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
  8. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 8
    Non-OPEC Producing Regions With More than a One Million Barrel Per Day Increase in Total Production Over the Forecast Period, 2005 and 2030 14 2005 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 12 11.5 10.2 2030 10 9.5 8.2 8 7.3…
  9. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 9
    OPEC Conventional Liquids Production 40 37.5 35 Million Barrels per Day 30 2005 25 23.5 2030 20 15 9.2 10 5 3.8 4.9 4.0 1.1 0.7 2.2 1.7 0 Asia Middle East North Africa West Africa South America Source: EIA, IEO2007…
  10. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 10
    Thinking beyond 2030
  11. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 11
    Key Uncertainties 1. Liquids Demand 2. Conventional, non-OPEC Supply 3. Unconventional Supply 4. OPEC Behavior 5. Geopolitical & Security Considerations 11
  12. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 12
    World Annual Demand of Total Liquids 70,000 2.0% 60,000 (million barrels per year) 1.5% 1.0% 50,000 1.4 % 40,000 30,000 6.5 % 20,000 Demand 10,000 0 00 50 10 20 30 40 60 70 80 90 00 10 20 30 40…
  13. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 13
    Conventional Non-OPEC Supply Plateaus 160 140 Unconventional (million barrels per day) Liquids 120 100 80 OPEC 60 Conventional 40 20 Non-OPEC Conventional 0 50 40 10 20 30 50 60 80 90 70 00…
  14. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 14
    Unconventional Liquids 14
  15. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Canadian Oil Sands: Production and Costs 4.5 12 Oil Sands Growth Actual 2006 = 1.1 million b/d Forecast Nominal Canadian Dollars per Year (lines) Million barrels per day (area) . 4.0 Base Case: 10 3.5 2020 = 4.0 million…
  16. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Projected Corn Ethanol Production is a function of market forces 30 Percent of Corn 14 used for ethanol 12 Billion Gallons 10 8 Oil prices begin 6 increase 4 2 0 3 9 3 7 5 9 7 5 1 1…
  17. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 17
    What we are finding so far 1. Non-OPEC conventional production is approaching a plateau, but no rapid decline 2. Need for unconventional oil grows quickly if OPEC restrains production 3. Recovery factors are important 4. Above…
  18. AAPG SPE International Reserves Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…

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