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June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA

EIA · Jun 9, 2010 · 30 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 1
    The Supply of Oil Projections to 2035 Oil and the Macroeconomy in a Changing World Federal Reserve Bank of Boston June 9, 2010 Boston, MA Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator
  2. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 2
    Near-term oil price uncertainty reflects uncertain demand, supply risks, and financial market influences light, sweet crude oil price dollars per barrel 200 History Projections 180 Historical spot price 160 STEO price forecast…
  3. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 3
    In the near term, non-OPEC supply increases exceed declines change from previous year million barrels per day 1.2 2011 1.0 2010 0.8 2009 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 te No ia ng y om n a O a er Ga…
  4. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 4
    Main points on long-run liquids supply Investment and production decisions of key OPEC countries, which reflect both economic and non-economic considerations, are the single most important driver of EIAs alternative supply cases…
  5. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 5
    The IEO reflects long-term uncertainty using a wide set of price cases, each with its own supply scenario light, sweet crude oil price 2008 dollars per barrel 225 History Projections 210 200 High Oil Price case 175 150…
  6. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 6
    Liquids remain the largest part of world energy supply in the IEO2010 Reference case, although their share of the total energy use declines world primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections 250 Liquids 30%…
  7. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 7
    Liquid fuels are more than just conventional crude oil 2.2 0.2 Unconventional Supply 2.1 1.0 3.3 MMBD in 2008 7.9 Conventional Supply 81.6 MMBD in 2008 100 % = 87.1 71.6 Conventional Crude Natural Gas Plant Liquids…
  8. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 8
    However, many alternatives to easy conventional oil face significant challenges Limited compatibility with existing fueling infrastructure and vehicles and limited scalability (current biofuels) Technology and cost challenges…
  9. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 9
    Long-term world supply scenarios for liquid fuels are driven by four fundamental factors Global liquids demand sensitive to prices (unlike short-term demand), economic growth, demand policy decisions (e.g. fuel economy standards),…
  10. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 10
    Capital and operating decisions made by national oil companies (NOCs) will largely determine the level of future oil production 1970 2009 Reserves held by Russian companies NOC reserves (some IOC NOC reserves control) (limited…
  11. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 11
    OPEC behavior, reflected in its share of the global liquids market, is a driving assumption in each IEO supply case OPEC share of liquids market percent 55 History Projections Low Oil Price case 50 45 Reference case 40 35…
  12. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 12
    The three oil supply scenarios in IEO2010 reflect different assumed OPEC decisions and non-OPEC investment environments Reference case OPEC maintains approximately 40 percent of the global liquids market through 2035. Non-OPEC…
  13. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 13
    OPEC producers maintain an approximate 40% share of total liquids production in the Reference case liquids production million barrel per day 120 History Projections 111 100 Total 85 80 60 52 48 Non-OPEC conventional 45 40…
  14. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 14
    Adjustment in the global liquid fuels market: then and now 1973 1985 2003 2015 Actual IEO Ref Case World Liquids Demand + 2 +9 OECD - 4 - 2 Non-OECD + 6 + 11 Non-OPEC Conventional Supply + 13 - 1 Unconventional Supply 0 + 4 OPEC…
  15. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 15
    Growth in OPEC production of conventional liquids comes primarily from Saudi Arabia and Iraq conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007 2020 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq Other…
  16. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 16
    Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and U.S. lead increases in non- OPEC conventional supplies conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007 2020 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia United Brazil Kazakhstan OECD…
  17. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 17
    Oil sands in Canada and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in total unconventional liquids in the IEO Reference Case unconventional liquids production million barrels per day 6 5 2007 2020 2035 4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/…
  18. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 18
    OPEC members conventional production varies depending on assumed OPEC market share objective conventional liquids production in 2035 million barrels per day 18 16 14 Low Oil Price 12 Reference High Oil Price 10 8 6 4 2 0…
  19. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 19
    Leading growth areas in non-OPEC conventional supply respond differently to assumption changes between cases conventional liquids production in 2035 million barrels per day 16 14 Low Oil Price 12 Reference High Oil Price 10…
  20. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 20
    Production from unconventional sources varies widely depending on the price and investor access granted unconventional liquids production in 2035 million barrels per day 8 7 Low Oil Price Reference 6 High Oil Price 5 4 3…
  21. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 21
    World Supply Summary: IEO2010 Reference case World total liquids (million barrels per day of physical volumes) Changes Avg Annual % change 2008 2020 2035 08-20 08-35 08-35 Crude & lease condensate 71.6 71.5 82.4 -0.1 10.9 0.5 NGPL…
  22. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 22
    World Supply Summary: Differences Across Side Cases World liquids supplies in three oil price cases (million barrels per day) 2008 2020 2035 Low Price Ref High Price Low Price Ref High Price Case Case Case Case Case Case…
  23. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 23
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
  24. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 24
    Back-up slides Howard Gruenspecht, FRB Boston, June 9, 2010 24
  25. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 25
    OPEC Supply Summary: IEO2010 Reference case OPEC Total Liquids (million barrels per day of physical volumes) Average Annual % Chg 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 08-'20 08-'35 08-'35 Crude & Lease Condensate 31.8 31.9 32.3 34.2 36.8…
  26. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 26
    OPEC Supply Summary: IEO2010 High Price case OPEC Total Liquids (million barrels per day of physical volumes) Average Annual % Chg 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 08-'20 08-'35 08-'35 Crude & Lease Condensate 31.8 26.9 24.9 25.1 25.7…
  27. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 27
    OPEC Supply Summary: IEO2010 Low Price case OPEC Total Liquids (million barrels per day of physical volumes) Average Annual % Chg 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 08-'20 08-'35 08-'35 Crude & Lease Condensate 31.8 37.4 40.2 44.2 48.5…
  28. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 28
    World Supply Summary: IEO2010 Reference case World Total Liquids (million barrels per day of physical volume) Average Annual Percent Chg 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 08-'20 08-'35 08-'35 Crude & Lease Condensate 71.6 70.8 71.5 74.6…
  29. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 29
    World Supply Summary: IEO2010 High Price case World Total Liquids (million barrels per day of physical volume) Average Annual Percent Chg 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 08-'20 08-'35 08-'35 Crude & Lease Condensate 71.6 64.7 59.7 59.7…
  30. June 2010 Investor Presentation – EIA – slide 30
    World Supply Summary: IEO2010 Low Price case World Total Liquids (million barrels per day of physical volume) Average Annual Percent Chg 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 08-'20 08-'35 08-'35 Crude & Lease Condensate 71.6 76.9 80.4 85.3…

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