Oil and natural gas supply and demand trends in North America and beyond For Energy Metro Desk Conference: New Risk in Energy II April 7, 2015 Houston, TX By Adam Sieminski U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy…
Historical and projected oil prices crude oil price price per barrel (real 2010 dollars) Prices shown are quarterly averages: dashed lines are EIA projections Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters…
Brent crude oil prices were relatively stable through the first half of 2014; increased oil supply and lower global economic growth expectations lowered prices from July 2014 to January 2015 dollars per barrel Source: EIA,…
Oil prices rise from mid-2015 through mid-2016 in EIAs forecast however, the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price 25…
Average household energy expenditures fall by 16% in 2015, then increase somewhat in 2016 (based on EIA price forecast) household energy expenditures dollars 5,000 4,568 4,534 3,805 4,090 393 417 4,000 404 394 1,422 1,464 Natural…
Various events could lead to changes in global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than the STEO forecast Event Social unrest in Venezuela leads to supply disruptions ISIL disrupts Iraqi exports…
Oil Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and beyond April 7, 2015 7
Global oil demand tracks world GDP growth annual percent change Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2014 Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and beyond April 7, 2015 8
EIA forecasts global liquids consumption growth at 1.0 million bbl/d in 2015 and 1.1 million bbl/d in 2016 world liquid fuels consumption annual change million barrels per day million barrels per day 96 Change in U.S. consumption (right…
Employment growth and lower prices contributed to U.S. gasoline consumption increases from late-2013 through early 2015 monthly U.S. gasoline consumption (year-over-year change) thousand barrels per day 600 500 forecast 400 300 200…
U.S. crude oil production is expected to increase only 660 kb/d in 2015 and 140 kb/d in 2016; if prices do not recover to the mid- 70s by mid-2016 as forecast by EIA, production would be lower U.S. crude oil and liquid fuels production…
North American oil production growth slows with lower oil prices but remains the main driver of global production growth world crude oil and liquid fuels production growth million barrels per day 2.0 Forecast 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5…
Long-term price scenario Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel history 2012 projections 200 150 Higher price case 100 Lower price case 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA,…
Short-term lower oil prices have small impact on U.S. total oil production; 10 years of lower prices required for significant impact Higher price case Lower price case million barrels per day million barrels per day History 2012…
U.S. dependence on imported liquids increases with lower oil prices U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 25 2005 2016 2040 20 Consumption 15% 14% 37% 15 60% 40% Net imports 10 Domestic supply…
Natural gas Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and beyond April 7, 2015 16
Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average 3.07/million Btu in 2015 and 3.45/million Btu in 2016 Henry Hub spot price dollars per million Btu 7 6 5 4 3 Historical Spot Price 2 STEO Forecast 1 NYMEX Futures Price 95% NYMEX…
After cold weather caused large natural gas storage withdrawals in 2014, inventories are expected to return to historical average levels in 2015 and 2016 U.S. working natural gas in storage billion cubic feet per day deviation from…
Future natural gas prices depend on world energy prices and domestic resource availability average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 12 High Oil Price 9 Reference 6 Low…
U.S. dry natural gas production Higher price case Lower price case trillion cubic feet trillion cubic feet History 2012 Projections History 2012 Projections 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 Shale gas & 20 20 tight oil plays 15 15 Tight…
Lower world oil prices affect the economics of U.S. LNG export projects, reducing the global demand for U.S. natural gas Higher price case (HPC) Lower price case (LPC) trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day trillion…
U.S. energy production grows rapidly, particularly natural gas, renewables, and liquids in the near term U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu History 2012 Projections 120 2025 2040 100 80 34% 38% 60 Natural gas 31% 11% 12%…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2012 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding…
Preview of coming attractions Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and beyond April 7, 2015 24
Now playing: Crude by rail and EIA-914data updates Both high priority Crude by rail due out with PSM, March 30 Updated 914 expected in June with new data collection Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and…
Now playing: New Microsoft Excel add-in for Windows Enables spreadsheet users inside and outside of EIA to pull the most recent EIA data into their existing workbooks Includes FRED economic data from the St. Louis Federal…
Upcoming: New AEO table browser Signature product redeveloped for EIAs state-of-the-art table browser experience Compares up to 6 cases from AEO Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and beyond April 7, 2015…
Upcoming: EIA-930hourly survey of electricity balancing authorities First near-real time report for EIA Dashboard view of the U.S. power grid Highly anticipated by EIA customers Status: dev largely complete; awaiting OES data to…
Upcoming: improved international energy web presence New data browser to replace IES Better map-based navigations and visualizations Consolidate CABs/CANs Launch: beta in April Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North…
Tri-lateral cooperation: Canada, Mexico, & United States memorandum of understanding signed 12/15/2014 1) Reconciliation of import and export information on energy flows. The working group would develop a cross reference for terminology…
North American border crossing points for electricity and oil and natural gas pipelines Gas and oil supply and demand trends in North America and beyond April 7, 2015 31
Upcoming: Final reports on EIA crude oil exports Over the next two months, the final four reports will cover: 1) Technical options for U.S. refineries to facilitate the processing additional light tight oil 2) Implications of…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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