Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas Argus Americas Crude Summit January 22, 2014 Houston, TX By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in oil and natural gas production Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report Argus Americas Crude Summit January 22, 2014 2
Key insights on U.S. drilling productivity and production trends The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources The number of wells drilled nationwide that produce…
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day 3.5…
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States Refinery operations/investment Logistics infrastructure investment…
U.S. natural gas prices remain well below crude oil prices energy spot prices 2012 dollars per million Btu History 2012 Projections 30 2018 2040 25 20 Brent crude oil spot price Ratio: 15 3.2 Ratio: Oil to gas 7.1 price ratio:…
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale…
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 30 11.0 Electric 25 power 20 8.5 Industrial* 15 11.2 9.1 10…
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 Refining and 20 7 related 6 16 5…
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks natural gas use by mode trillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 900 2.5 800 Approximate crude oil equivalent, 700 (thousand…
U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 10 2025 25 8 5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) 20 6 Pipeline…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 10 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per…
U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Projections 2012 30 2030 2040 25 20 44% 59%…
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 4 3 Distillate exports 2 Motor gasoline exports Total petroleum product net…
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 25 2005 2016 2040 20 Consumption 25% 32% 15 40% 60% Net imports 10 Domestic…
U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level throughout the projection period carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2012 Projections 7 2005 6 5 4 3 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are…
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources Shale oil Shale gas rank country billion barrels rank country trillion cubic feet 1 Russia 75 1 China 1,115 2 United States 58 2 Argentina 802 3 China 32 3 Algeria 707…
Reproducibility of shale development may have limits Many factors support production from U.S. shale resources that do not exist in many other countries: Resource quality and geologic distribution details matter Major private…
Geopolitical implications of shale resources Shale oil is both light and sweet the rapid growth in its supply has implications for crude oil pricing relationships, the value of different refinery configurations, refinery output…
OPEC countries now account for most unplanned outages estimated unplanned crude oil production outages thousand barrels per day 3,500 3,000 Other Non-OPEC 2,500 Syria Non- OPEC Sudan/S. Sudan 2,000 Iraq 1,500 Nigeria 1,000 OPEC…
China is now the worlds largest net oil importer net imports for China and the United States millions of barrels per day History Jan-14 Forecast 10 United States net imports 8 6 China net imports 4 2 0 Jan-11 Jul-11…
U.S. liquids (petroleum) production projected to outpace both Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2014 Liquids (petroleum) production, 2014 (million barrels per day) United States Saudi Arabia Russia Crude oil 8.5 10.0 10.3 NGLs 2.5 1.8…
There are many issues that cause uncertainty Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China, and their impacts on demand Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
Loading...
