Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration Energy Security Group November 29, 2006 Washington, DC
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) 80 History Projections 60 40 20 History AEO2006 AEO2007 P 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007 - Preliminary
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 140 135 AEO2006 120 AEO2007 P 131 100 100 80 60 40 History Projections 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007…
U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 140 History Projections 120 32% 100 Net Imports Consumption 30% 80 Production 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030…
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections Liquid Fuels 50 40 Coal 30 Natural Gas 20 Nuclear 10 Renewables 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 45 2005 AEO2006 40 AEO2007 P 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and…
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day) 30 27.6 26.9 24.8 Electric Power 25 24.0 22.2 21.6 Industrial 20.7 20 Residential and Commercial 15 10 Transportation…
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 20 61% Consumption Net Imports 15 60% 10 Domestic Supply 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Deepwater Offshore Alaska Shallow Water Offshore 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030…
U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030 (billion gallons) 20 History Projections 15 Corn Ethanol AEO2007 P 10 AEO2006 5 Cellulosic Ethanol 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007 -…
Share of World Oil Reserves, 2005 8% Africa 3% Asia & Oceania Middle East 7% Europe/FSU 58% Western Hemisphere 24%
Top World Oil-Producing Regions, 2005 (million barrels per day) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Middle East Western Europe/FSU Africa Asia & Oceania Hemisphere
Global Proved Oil Reserves Ownership (1.1 trillion barrels) Exxon/Mobil 1.0% BP 0.9% Investor owned oil Europe NOCs 1.0% Chevron reserves: 4% of total 0.9% Asia NOCs 2.1% ConocoPhillips 0.6% Africa NOCs Shell 6.6% 0.5%…
National Oil Companies, Mostly in the Middle East, Control 75 Percent of World Oil Reserves W. Hemisphere Middle East Privately Owned (327 billion barrels) National Oil Eurasia Companies (966 billion barrels) Asia W.…
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History Projections 7 6 5 4 3 History AEO2006 2 AEO2007 P 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 26.9 26.3 26.9 26.1 25 24.0 23.4 22.0 7.5 6.4 5.9 Electric Power 7.2 20 6.4 5.5 5.8 15 10.0 9.8 Industrial 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 7.7…
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net Imports 21% 20 16% Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic…
U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 10 History Projections 8 Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional 6 Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore 4 Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore…
Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2006-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 28 26 Growth in Alaskan Production 24 Growth in LNG Imports 22 20 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 18 Base Production (all…
U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas Production, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections 7 6 5 Tight Sands 4 3 2 Coalbed Methane 1 Gas Shales 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 5 History Projections 4 Overseas LNG 3 Canada 2 1 0 Mexico -1 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
Share of World Natural Gas Reserves, 2006 Asia & Oceania Africa 6% 8% Europe/FSU 35% Middle East 42% 8% Western Hemisphere
Top Natural Gas-Producing Regions, 2005 (trillion cubic feet) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Europe/FSU Western Asia Middle East Africa Hemisphere
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, reference case December 5th, report February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006…