LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY MARKETS Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration U.S.-Japan Workshop on Nuclear Energy The Energy Future: Strategies and Challenges November 21, 2005 Washington, DC
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 indicates that over the next two decades.... U.S. energy demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent, using the scenario with the highest assumed world oil prices The energy efficiency of the…
World Oil Price, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per barrel) 70 60 History High B 50 Reference 48.00 40 30 30.31 20 27.73 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 140 History Projections 120 30% 100 Net Imports Consumption 27% 80 Production 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025…
U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 60 Petroleum History Projections 50 40 Natural Gas 30 Coal 20 10 Nuclear Nonhydropower Renewables 0 Hydropower 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual…
U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2003 and 2025 (quadrillion Btu) 45 40 2003 2025 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 20 Consumption 58% Net Imports 15 56% 10 Production 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025…
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 20% 25 Consumption Net Imports 15% 20 Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (trillion cubic…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 12 History Projections Industrial* 10 8 Electric Generators Residential 6 Commercial 4 2 Transportation** 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1970-2025 (billion kilowatthours) 3,000 History Projections Coal 2,000 Natural Gas 1,000 Nuclear Renewables Petroleum 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook…
U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel Type, 2001-2025 (gigawatts) 80 Natural Gas Coal 70 Renewables 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Average Electricity Price, 1970-2025 (2003 cents per kilowatthour) 10 History Projections 7.4 7.4 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Energy Policy Act of 2005 Impacts of the new energy legislation will be included in Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Legislation contains numerous provisions affecting energy markets Most significant provisions for electricity are the…
Nuclear Outlook in AEO2005 The AEO2005 does not include the incentives for nuclear power in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 All existing nuclear plants will continue operating through 2025 While new nuclear plants are not expected,…
U.S. Nuclear Capacity in Three Cases (thousand megawatts) 140 Reference Advanced Nuclear Vendor Estimates 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2020 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
International Energy Outlook 2005 indicates that over the next two decades z Worldwide energy consumption will grow by 57 percent between 2002 and 2025, an average annual growth rate of 2 percent, with the strongest growth in the…
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 350 History Projections 300 46% 42% 250 Mature Market Economies Share of 200 World Emerging Total 150 Economies 100 12% 50 Transitional Economies…
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 38% 200 Share of Natural Gas 25% World Oil 150 24% Total Coal 100 Renewables 8% 50 Nuclear 5% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990…
World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (billion kilowatthours) 16,000 History Projections Mature Market Economies 12,000 Transitional Economies Emerging Economies 8,000 4,000 0 2002 2010 2015 2020…
World Electricity Consumption per Capita by Country Group, 2002 and 2025 (kilowatthours per person per year) India Africa Other Emerging Asia 2002 China Central & South America 2025 Mexico Middle East Eastern Europe Formet…
World Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 (percent) 2002 History Projections 2010 2015 2020 2025 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables International Energy Annual 2003…
World Nuclear Power Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 (gigawatts) 1,500 History Projections 1,250 Mature Market Economies Transitional Economies 1,000 Emerging Economies 750 500 250 0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2005, December 2004 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005 Examples of Special Analyses Renewable…