The Outlook for Oil Demand in North America for CERI 2008 Oil Conference: What Price Energy Security Calgary, Alberta Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator, EIA (howard.gruenspechteia.doe.gov) April 15, 2008
Outline North American Oil Demand to 2030 the view before EISA 2007 Renewable Fuel Market Segments The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: provisions with major effects on oil markets Latest Projections with EISA 2007…
North American Oil Use in the IEO2007 Reference Case, 1990-2030 Canada Mexico United States Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA…
North American Oil Use in the IEO2007 High Price Case, 1990-2030 Canada Mexico United States Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA…
Transportation and Oil Transportation is the primary driver of oil demand In the US, transportation already accounts for nearly 70% of oil use. Historically, alternative fuels have not made significant inroads into transportation…
Alternatives to Oil in Transportation Biofuels Ethanol, biodiesel, and biobutanol Vehicle efficiency For constant VMT, each 50 percent increase in on- the-road fuel economy reduces fuel used by 33 percent. Electricity (from a…
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Key Provisions Affecting Transport Fuel Markets A significant increase in corporate average fuel economy standards for light duty vehicles, with a standard of 35 miles per gallon (MPG), or…
New Light-Duty Fuel Efficiency is 36 MPG in 2022 Versus 28.4 in Early Release Case Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Projections 45.0 40.0 35.0 New Cars New Light Trucks Miles Per Gallon 30.0 25.0 20.0 LDV Stock 15.0…
Shifting Vehicle Mix Needed to Meet Both Increased Efficiency & Ethanol Use Light-Duty Vehicle Sales 10 Electric- 9 Gasoline Hybrid 8 7 Ethanol-Flex Millions 6 Fuel 5 4 Diesel ICE 3 2 Gasoline ICE 1 0 2007 2007 2022…
Non-Gasoline Vehicle Sales Penetration Increases from 11% in 2007 to 41% in 2022 Non-Gasoline Light-Duty Vehicle Sales 45% 40% Diesel ICE Share 9% 35% 30% 6% 25% 14% Electric-Gasoline 10% Hybrid Share 20% 4% 15% 5%…
3 Distinct Market Segments for Ethanol Clean, high-octane gasoline blending component market Lowest price sensitivity: must have item. Example: demand for ethanol in the aftermath of the phaseout of MTBE in spring 2006 Volume…
Renewable Fuels Requirement Mainly Met with Ethanol Total Fuel Ethanol Use 1.8 1.6 Million Barrels Per Day 1.4 1.2 Total Ethanol Use 1.0 0.8 0.6 Ethanol Used in E85 0.4 0.2 0.0 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Source: AEO 2008…
A variety of fuel sources are expected to support the renewable fuel standard in EISA2007. 40 billion credits Legislated RFS Table Values 35 RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments 30 Liquids from Biomass 25 Biodiesel Ethanol 20 Net…
U.S. Gasoline Demand Increases, But Petroleum Gasoline Declines Due to Increased Biofuels, Switch to Diesel, & Efficiency Gasoline Demand 2007 and 2022 14.0 12.0 MPG Savings Million Barrels Per Day Over 2007 Gasoline…
Petroleum-Based* Gasoline and Distillate Fuel Needs Shift Million Barrels Growth to 2007 2022 Per Day 2022 Petroleum 8.85 8.24 -0.61 Gasoline Petroleum 4.22 4.71 +0.49 Distillate * Petroleum-Based excludes ethanol,…
Issues: Shifting U.S. Demand Mix and Import Availability The shifting demand mix of products towards more distillate and less gasoline may be a challenge for refiners Supply Uncertainties: U.S. Refiners Distillate Response…
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption and Domestic Supply AEO2008 Reference Case (w/ EISA2007) million barrels per day 30 History Projection 25 20 Consumption Net Imports 51% 55% 15 60% 10 Domestic supply 5 0 1970 1980 1990…
North American Oil Use, 1990-2030 (IEO2007 reference case w/ US updated from AEO2008) Canada Mexico United States Reduction in US oil use from 35 AEO2007 to AEO2008 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 30 25 20 15…
North American Oil Use, 1990-2030 (IEO2007 high price case w/ US updated from AEO2008) Reduction in US Canada Mexico United States oil use from AEO2007 to 35 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day AEO2008 high price case…
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