Prospects for U.S. Oil & Natural Gas for The Aspen Institute: Global Energy Forum July 20, 2012 Aspen, CO by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 in absolute terms, all fuels grow except petroleum liquids U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 120 Renewables (excluding biofuels) 100 11% 7% 4% 1% 80 Liquid…
U.S. shale gas production comprised over 30 percent of total U.S. dry production in 2011 shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US 25 Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) 20 Haynesville (LA and…
Shale gas grows from under a quarter to about half of U.S. gas production from 2010-2035 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2010 Projections 30 25 20 49% Shale gas 15 Tight gas 22% 10 Lower 48 onshore…
U.S. production of shale gas in four cases, 2000-2035 dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2010 Projections 24 20 High TRR 16 High EUR 12 Reference Low EUR 8 4 Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR)…
Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands Source: EIA Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 5
U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet History 2010 Projections 30 Net exports, 2035 5% Net imports, 2010 25 11% Consumption 20 Domestic production 15 1990 1995 2000…
U.S. natural gas spot prices are very low compared to prices in other regions and oil prices global spot natural gas and crude oil prices U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit Sources: EIA, Bloomberg, as of July 17, 2012…
Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold by 2035; growth climbs nearly five-fold with a price on CO2 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours 2025 2035 800 Wind 600 400 Biomass 200 Solar…
Energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels in the AEO2012 Reference case energy carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2010 Projections 7 6 5 Energy-related CO2 emissions 4 2005 2020…
U.S. natural gas prices separate from crude oil price equivalency spot market prices 2010 dollars per million Btu Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) Natural gas (Henry Hub) Source: EIA, Bloomberg Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012…
Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 62 60 Non-OECD 50 48 46 OECD 40 40% 41 30 Other…
Tight oil production for selected plays approaches 900,000 barrels per day in March 2012 thousand barrels of oil per day 1,000 Eagle Ford Bakken 800 Granite Wash Bonespring 600 Monterey Woodford Niobrara 400 Spraberry Austin…
U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth 2011-13 million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 2013 2012 2011 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Kazakhstan Australia Russia Vietnam India Sudan United…
Tight oil resource potential and production remain highly uncertain tight oil production million barrels per day Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR) Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) 3.0 2.5 High TRR 2.0 High EUR 1.5 1.0…
U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production including biofuels and greater efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day 2025 2035 21 Net petroleum 18 imports 15 49% 12 Domestic…
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines moves even lower in various side case scenarios U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2010 Projections 25 20 Consumption Extended Policies 14% 36% High TRR 15…
Heavy-duty vehicle natural gas consumption grows substantially in an AEO2012 side case heavy-duty vehicle fuel consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 10 8 Motor Gasoline 6 8% Natural Gas 31% 4 5% 92% Diesel…
AEO2012 scenarios show wide range of outcomes Reference case High and low economic growth High and low oil price High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources Integrated high and low…
Independence does not eliminate interdependence quasi oil self-sufficiency will neither insulate the United States from the rest of the global oil market (and world oil prices), nor diminish the critical importance of the Middle…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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