Skip to main content EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC Investor Presentation | Shale Experts
Loading...
Pm

EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC

CIBC · Aug 18, 2015 · 35 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 1
    Outlook For Energy Markets August 2015 Katherine Spector Commodities Strategy katherine.spectorcibc.com
  2. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 2
    Outlook For Energy Markets Why Were Prices So High For So Long A historically high rate of unplanned supply outages has been a key feature of the global oil market since 2011. In fact, outside of the US, net non-OPEC production has…
  3. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 3
    Outlook For Energy Markets US + Gulf-3 Bail Market Out Supply Chg, 2014 vs 2010 mbd 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 US Saudi + 1.0 Kuwait + UAE 0.0 Rest of Non-OPEC -1.0 Rest of OPEC -2.0 -3.0 Non-OPEC OPEC CIBC Commodities Strategy,…
  4. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 4
    Outlook For Energy Markets Not So Comfortable Without That Tight Oil Boom Global Oil Supply/Demand Growth Global Oil Supply/Demand Growth Ex-US mbd mbd 10 10 Cumulative Demand Growth Cumulative Demand Ex-US Cumulative Supply Growth…
  5. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 5
    Outlook For Energy Markets Why This Is Not the Early 1980s... Todays OPEC Spare Capacity & Call In Context mbd mbd 3.0 Most Bullish YoY Chg In Call on OPEC Crude 14 14 OPEC Spare Capacity 2.0 12 12 04 YoY Call On OPEC Crude…
  6. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 6
    Outlook For Energy Markets What Now The Call on OPEC should gradually recover through 2016, the problem is that the improvement is no match for current rates of Saudi/OPEC overproduction. In other words, the market will need more…
  7. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 7
    Outlook For Energy Markets Short Managed Money Signals Bottom Is Near Long:Short Ratio Gross Short Position 16 000 Contracts 200 14 12 150 10 8 100 6 4 50 2 0 0 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13…
  8. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 8
    Outlook For Energy Markets Oil Demand Poor In 14, But Quite Good YTD 2015 OECD China Non-OECD ex-China World kbd kbd kbd kbd 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.500 Upside primarily 1.5 in the US 1.5 1.5 1.500 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.500 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5…
  9. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 9
    Outlook For Energy Markets Call Bottoms in Q115, Then Tightens Gradually Call On OPEC & Brent Price /bbl mbd 34 145 33 125 32 31 105 30 85 29 28 65 27 45 26 Call on OPEC (3 mo. MA, left) Brent (right) 25 25 Brent Forecast…
  10. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 10
    Outlook For Energy Markets Saudi Over-Production Continues Saudi Over-Production Not Entirely Reflected In Stock Chg Though... At Least Not Yet mbd 3.0 Observed Stock Chg. (OECD + China + Saudi) 2.5 Saudi Production Minus Market…
  11. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 11
    Outlook For Energy Markets Both Upside & Downside for OPEC Producers Production Scenarios for Four OPEC Hotspots Iran Production Scenarios Iraq Production Scenarios mbd mbd Pessimistic Optimistic Base Pessimistic Optimistic Base 5.0…
  12. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 12
    Outlook For Energy Markets Iraq & Russia Big Winners In Asian Market Share Ten-Year Change In Share of East Asian* Crude Imports percentage points 8% 6% Other Mideast North Africa 4% Saudi 2% Asia Iran 0%…
  13. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 13
    Outlook For Energy Markets Russian Oil Struggled At 100... What Now Russian & FSU Production, YoY Russian Crude & Condensate Prod, YoY mbd mbd 1.0 Russia 0.25 Condensate Crude Total Other Former Soviet 0.20 0.8 Net 0.15 0.6…
  14. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 14
    Outlook For Energy Markets Inventory Builds Not Necessarily Over... Total Commercial Oil Inventories bn bbl 5-Yr Rolling Average 2.9 OECD Commerical Oil Stocks 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 CIBC…
  15. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 15
    Outlook For Energy Markets Majority Of Stock Builds In The US YoY Change In OECD Commercial Inventories (Jun15) mb 180 US OECD ex-US 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total Commercial Crude Refined Products CIBC Commodities…
  16. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 16
    Outlook For Energy Markets Crude Builds Outpace Product Builds... For Now Cumulative Crude Stock Chgs Cumulative Product Stock Chgs mb mb 100 100 OECD Ex-US US 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 OECD Ex-US US -60…
  17. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 17
    Outlook For Energy Markets So What Will It Take To Slow US Growth Arguments For Slowing Arguments Against Slowing Falling rig count Production guidance holding strong Wells held back from completion Legacy hedges protect in 1H15…
  18. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 18
    Outlook For Energy Markets EIA Shows MoM Production Declines Since May Eagle Ford Bakken kbd kbd 250 150 Legacy Well Decline Legacy Well Decline New Well Growth 200 New Well Growth Net Monthly Change Net Monthly Change 100 150…
  19. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 19
    Outlook For Energy Markets Another View: Slowdown Underway EIAs Short Term View Of YoY Oil Production In Key Basins kbd 1,500 Niobrara Eagle Ford Bakken Permian Quarterly Avgs 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 300 100 (100) Jun-13…
  20. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 20
    Outlook For Energy Markets Oil Hedges: Front Heavy, Back Empty... % US Production Growth Hedged By End Q1 80% Bal of Current Yr Current Yr + 1 Current Yr + 2 Current Yr + 3 Current Yr + 4 70% Bal15 60% 50% 40% 30%…
  21. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 21
    Outlook For Energy Markets How Much Growth Has Access to Capital 2014 US Liquids Production 2014 US Liquids Production Growth kbd kbd 4924 5000 4641 700 646 600 4000 500 451 432 3000 400 1955 2000 300 200 1000 62 100 0 0 0…
  22. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 22
    Outlook For Energy Markets North American Natural Gas K. Spector August 2015 NG-1
  23. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 23
    Outlook For Energy Markets Natural Gas: Weighing the Drivers For the Bulls... ...For the Bears Everybodys bearish Room for surprise Supply, supply, supply 2015 probably baked in the cake. Could low oil prices shift Gas demand…
  24. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 24
    Outlook For Energy Markets Are There Any Gas Bulls Left... Managed Money Long:Short Ratio (F&O) Managed Money Gross Short Position (F&O) Long:Short (F & O) '000 Contracts (F&O) 4.0 500 3.5 450 3.0 400 350 2.5 300 2.0 250 1.5…
  25. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 25
    Outlook For Energy Markets Production Eases But Still Above Trend bcf/day 75 Normal Trend + Seasonality Production 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 CIBC Commodities Strategy,…
  26. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 26
    Outlook For Energy Markets Capitulation Compared To Oil % US Gas Production Hedged By End Q1 % of Production 60% Bal of Current Yr Current Yr + 1 Current Yr + 2 Current Yr + 3 Current Yr + 4 50% Bal15 40% 30% Cal16…
  27. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 27
    Outlook For Energy Markets Gas Storage Looks Bearish Anyway You Slice It Storage Injections 2.5-3 Bcf/DayNormal Storage Injections Heavy Vs. Weather bcf/day Storage Chg. Per TDD 20 2.0 1.8 Past 12 Months 15 1.5 10 1.3 5 1.0…
  28. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 28
    Outlook For Energy Markets The Coal Band Still Works As Gas Price Predictor Avg Gas/Coal Competition Economics /mmbtu NYMEX Henry Hub 6.0 5.5 5.0 Range of prices where Central Appalachian coal competes 4.5 with NYMEX 4.0 3.5…
  29. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 29
    Outlook For Energy Markets Gas, Renewables Dominate Power Gen Additions Capacity Chg In Power Gen By Fuel Source Gigawatts 2012 450 2024 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Coal Gas Solar Wind Other CIBC Commodities…
  30. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 30
    Outlook For Energy Markets Redrawing North Americas Gas Map Virtually all of the gas production growth in North America in recent years has been in the Marcellus/Utica regions, despite ongoing takeaway capacity constraints there. But…
  31. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 31
    Outlook For Energy Markets Basis Weakness Shifts As Pipe Capacity Increases /MMBtu Henry Hub Algonquin Boston CG TGP Z4 Tetco M3 9.00 Transco-6 Non-NY 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Summer Summer Summer Summer…
  32. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 32
    Outlook For Energy Markets Oil/Gas Convergence Threatens Liquids Economics /MMBtu 25 WTI NGL Basket Henry Hub 20 15 10 5 0 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 CIBC Commodities Strategy K. Spector…
  33. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 33
    Outlook For Energy Markets Is the Liquids Subsidy At Risk... NGL Discount Narrows But... NGL Subsidy At Risk At This Crude Price /bbl NGL Basket - WTI Ethane - WTI 100 -20 4 gas break even Current 6 gas break even -30 50 NGL…
  34. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 34
    Outlook For Energy Markets US Export Policy No Longer Obstacle For LNG Cumulative Capacity of Approved LNG Facilities By Scheduled Start Up Date Bcf/d 16 US 14 Canada 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CIBC…
  35. EnerCom The Oil and Gas Conference 2015 – CIBC – slide 35
    Outlook For Energy Markets CIBC MACRO STRATEGY RESEARCH Credit Government Credit Commodities Joanna Zapior, CFA Maria Berlettano, CFA Katherine Spector +1 (416) 594-8498 +1 (416) 594-8041 +1 (212) 885-4339 joanna.zapiorcibc.com…

From the store

Browse maps, data & reports in the Shale Experts store