NEWS RELEASE IEA releases Oil Market Report for August Global oil demand revised up from previous report; fastest pace in five years 12 August 2015 Global oil demand in 2015 is expected to grow by 1.6 mb/d, up 0.2 mb/d from our…
3 Were In A Price War www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
3 Possible Reasons Price Wars Start 4 1. Somebody, somewhere believes prices are too high; 2. Somebody, somewhere wants to buy market share; 3. Somebody, somewhere believes they have enough money to effect a permanent change in…
11/27/2014 5 Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
When the Money Runs Out, Then What 6 Foreign % Export Currency Earnings Q215 Daily Q214 Daily Y-O-Y OPEC Reserves, Dependent Production, Production, Production Country MM on Oil MBOE MBOE Change, % Saudi Arabia 756,100 87% 10,184…
7 Lets Review What a Price War is The Goal: creating low-price appeal for a product or service. Price wars, when executed well, help the consumer and the companies that start the process can have a long-term profitable impact…
8 Examples of Price Wars that Make Sense Cell phones / Phone service. Brokerage fees. Airlines. Electronics, computers, data storage, and cable television. Elective surgeries, like dental implants and Lasik.…
9 Price Wars Fail When the Products Are Inferior Chinese-built drilling rigs the steel fabrication is okay, but the electronics were faulty and inferior. USFL it was a price war and the on the field product was inferior. Just…
10 Are We in a Price War or Predatory Pricing Because the conventional wisdom among antitrust experts has long been that predatory pricing monopolist selling goods below cost is not a particularly serious problem. In fact, the…
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12 Is Predatory Pricing Effective Just Deal With it The first to discredit the concept of predatory pricing were members of the free-market Chicago School of Economists. About two decades ago, they conducted studies indicating…
13 Obviously, predatory pricing pays off only if the surviving predator can then raise prices enough to recover the previous losses, making enough extra profit thereafter to justify the risks. These risks are not small. Thomas…
Sheikhs vs. Shale www.oilandgas360.com
15 Were In A Predatory Price War Q: How Do you Fight a Price War If Youre a Price Taker www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
16 A: Technologies, Know-How and Rock. The Truth is in the Drill Bit www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
We usually find oil and gas in new places with old ideas. Sometimes, also, we find oil and gas in an old place with a new idea, but we seldom find much oil and gas in an old place with an old idea. Several times in the past we have…
We Have Been Down This Path Before 18 Its always about the economy. And this time, it is about being differentiated. 1986 2008 Real WTI Oil price, /Bbl 34.72 44.60 Real Nat gas price, /Mcf 3.74* 5.63 Interest rate(1) 6.8%…
19 The North American Oil & Gas Capital Cycle Reinvest & Raise Distribute Capital Generate Capital Returns Allocation Managing the Capital Cycle Invest www.OGFJ.com www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
20 How to Fight a Predatory Price War Reveal your strategic intentions and capabilities Capex programs are right-sized, production targets are managed, balance sheets are addressed, assets are rationalized. Reform Dodd-Frank.…
21 How to Fight a Predatory Price War Use complex price actions Hedge and find direct routes for production. Build overseas relationships on energistic social trust. Introduce new products/markets EXPORT, EXPORT, EXPORT.…
22 Global Daily Oil Consumption MBO 120,000 11% Rate of Change 5% 3% 3% 7% 90,000 12% 25% Missed market 60,000 for U.S. 30,000 0 1980 2000 2008 2014 2016 2020 2025 2035 U.S. China India EU Rest of World Source: BP…
23 Global Daily Oil Production MBO 120,000 11% Rate of Change 3% 5% 8% 7% 90,000 10% 14% 60,000 30,000 0 1980 2000 2008 2014 2016 2020 2025 2035 OPEC Russia U.S. Canada Rest of World Source: BP Statistical Review of…
U.S. Oil Imports 24 Will the U.S. Fill Its Own Supply Shortfall Gap of 3.58 MMB/D by 2034 24,000 13,000 U.S. Crude Demand 19,000 U.S. Thousand Bbls / Day 10,000 U.S. Demand U.S. Crude Imports 14,000 7,000 U.S.…
Push Down Prices AND Lose Market Share 25 0% of U.S. Crude Oil Exported to China Or Anywhere Else www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
Reliance on Crude Oil Imports: World More U.S. Less 26 Dependable Demand Dependable Supply Source: EIA and EnerCom. www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
27 The OPEC Oil & Gas Capital Cycle Some Notable Leaders of OPEC Members Libya: Moammar Kadafi Venezuela: Hugo Chavez Iraq: Saddam Hussein Sell crude oil Starve and torture Iran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad below economic the countrys…
28 Company Maturity and Market Preferences What metrics are important Large-Cap+ Commodity Prices Mid-Cap Asset Intensity Asset Intensity Debt/Mkt Cap Debt/Mkt Cap Capital Efficiency F&D Production OPEX/G&A Replacement…
From EnerComs Database 29 Group Moved from Natural Gas to Oil Starting in 2009 Q208 Q209 FY09 FY14 Q115 WTI, /Bbl 123.80 59.79 62.09 92.91 48.57 Nat gas, /Mcf 11.47 3.81 4.16 4.26 2.81 TTM EBITDA, BOE 30.36 33.72 30.66 31.91 23.89…
Saudi Arabia Oil Economics 30 Saudi Arabia Cost and Oil Prices Saudi Arabia pays Saudi Aramco a 110.00 40% management fee to Management Fee to Saudi Aramco 90.00 Social Cost operate the country's resource 70.00 development. per…
Saudi Arabia Oil Economics 31 U.S. Producers are Competitive 100.00 Marginal Cost of Supply 90.00 LOE G&A F&D 80.00 70.00 per Bbl 60.00 50.00 45 per Bbl Oil Price 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Marcellus Saudi…
Saudi Arabia Oil Economics 32 Despite industry leading marginal cost to produce, Saudi Arabia is out spending cash flow 100.00 Marginal Cost of Supply 90.00 LOE G&A F&D Social Cost 80.00 70.00 per Bbl 60.00 50.00 45 per…
34 Lead, Follow or Adapt. It Can Be Done According to Darwins Origin of Species, it is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that…
Influences on the Shape of the Recovery 35 30MM Chinese move each year from rural to urban dwellings. It is about the rock and land. Only 20% of global oil reserves are open to private investment. According to the EIA, the U.S.…
Rise Early. Work Hard. Strike Oil. John D. Rockefeller The Father of the 20th Century Oil & Gas Industry 36 www.enercominc.c www.oilandgas360.com
The U.S. Adapted www.oilandgas360.com
38 If youre thinking about buying into this market, you want to own well run companies operating in the best oil and gas fields, using the best technologies to generate the best and highest returns. Because this is a capital…
39 www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
40 EnerComs The Oil & Gas Conference Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took…
41 1996 8 Companies Barrett Resources Forest Oil FX Energy Key Production Newfield Exploration Oryx Energy Santa Fe Energy United Meridian Corporation 86 Attendees www.enercominc.com www.oilandgas360.com
42 EnerComs The Oil & Gas Conference 20 Agenda 114 Presentations. Looking Ahead in Todays Volatile Market. Identify Key Basins, Metrics and Curves. Are We Too Early, or Just in Time www.enercominc.com…