Who is Canadian Natural? ? Canadian based E&P company with international exposure ? 663-704 MBOE/d ? 2013F ? ~75% crude oil weighted ? 711-757 MBOE/d ? 2014B ? ~75% crude oil weighted ? Returns focused ? Major oil sands player ?…
CNQ The Sustainable Free Cash Flow Independent ? Largest reserve base in peer group ? Balanced ? Real value ? Delivering strong free cash flow ? Very large resources base to develop ? Long life, low decline ? Consistent capital…
CNQ Size of Canadian Natural Reserve Base 2012 1P Reserves After Royalties Significant Value to Unlock Note: Per BMO Capital Markets Research - 2012 Oil & Gas Global Cost Study. Peers include: APA, APC, EOG, CVE, CHK, DVN, ECA, HSE,…
CNQ Size of Canadian Natural Reserve Base 2012 2P Reserves Before Royalties PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 5 Significant Value to Unlock (MMBOE) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Based on…
Transitioning to a Longer Life Asset Base Long Life Assets = More Sustainable Cash Flow *2015F - 2018F based on company internal forecast as at May 2013. Dependent upon economic and regulatory conditions, commodity prices, global…
CNQ $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 2013F 2014B 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018 Canadian Natural Targeted Total Corporate Free C PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH Free Cash Flow Growing Note: Dependent upon economic and regulatory conditions,…
CNQ PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 9 Q3/13 Highlights ? Record quarterly production ?703,000 boe/d ?509,000 bbl/d crude oil & NGLs ? Record primary heavy crude oil production ? Record Pelican Lake crude oil…
CNQ 2014 Targeted Free Cash Flow Uses Free Cash Flow Increases 115%, Dividends 66% PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 10 ($ million) 2013F 2014B Expected Cash Flow $7,640 $8,700 Capital Program 7,175 7,700 Free Cash…
CNQ Canadian Natural 2014 Capital Budget Capital ($ million) 2013F 2014B Natural gas $540 $590 Crude oil Pelican Lake 400 245 Primary Heavy 1,125 1,200 Thermal In Situ 1,260 1,130 Light Canada 530 545 North Sea 350 470…
CNQ Canadian Natural 2014 Production Budget Targeted Production 2013F* 2014B* %Change Crude oil (Mbbl/d) North America Light Oil & NGLs 65-69 72-76 Pelican Lake 46-50 47-51 Primary Heavy 139-143 142-146 Thermal In Situ Oil Sands…
North America Natural Gas Core Area Summary Strong Asset Base ? 2nd largest producer of natural gas in Canada ? 1,136 MMcf/d of natural gas ? average NGL yield above 20 bbl/MMcf in Q3/13 ? Large resource base ? 5.6 Tcf 2P…
CNQ 2013F 2014B % Change Production (MMcf/d) 1,065-1,135 1,100-1,140 2% Drilling (net wells) 42 61 Capital ($ million) $540 $590 North America Natural Gas 2014 Plan PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 14 Most…
CNQ North America Light Crude Oil and NGLs Core Summary PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 15 Near, Mid and Long Term Light Crude Oil Projects ? Q3/13 production ? ~70 Mbbl/d, 7% growth in 2013 ? 2013 light crude…
CNQ North America Light Crude Oil and NGLs 2014 Plan ? 2014 forecast activity ? Drill 93 wells ? Target multiple formations across basin ? Leverage technology, horizontal multifracs ? 80% of total drilling ? Horizontal ? 1.4…
CNQ International Light Crude Oil 2014 Plan ? 2P light crude oil reserves 490 million barrels* ? Light oil balance in portfolio Brent pricing ? Exposure to offshore operations and geographic diversification in asset base ? North…
International Light Crude Oil South Africa ? Partnering with Total SA (50% WI, Total as operator) ? 5 structures ranging up to 1 billion barrels ? First exploration well targeted to be drilled in 2014 ? Partner to carry the…
CNQ Heavy Oil Assets PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 20 Technology Option ? Thermal in situ development ? Massive resource potential ? Staged value growth ? ~510,000 bbl/d of crude oil facility capacity ?…
CNQ Primary Heavy Crude Oil Core Area Summary PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 21 Vast Land Base and Infrastructure Captures Value ? Largest primary producer in Canada ? Q3/13 ~140,500 bbl/d, 13% growth in 2013F…
CNQ 2013F Production (Mbbl/d) 139-143 14 Drilling (net wells) 852 Recompletion (net wells) 565 Capital ($ million) $1,125 Primary Heavy Crude Oil 2014 Plan ? Low operating costs strong netbacks strong free ? High return on…
CNQ Pelican Lake Crude Oil Pool PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 23 ? Massive Wabiskaw heavy crude oil pool ? Industry leading EOR project ? Amongst the largest polymerfloods in the world ? Technology development…
2013F 2014B %Change Production (bbl/d) 46-50 47-51 2% Drilling (net wells) ? Producers 33 17 Capital ($ million) $400 $245 Pelican Lake 2014 Plan ? Increasing free cash flow wedge as capital requirements are reduced and polymer…
CNQ Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Land Holdings ? Clearwater ? Primrose, Wolf Lake ? Hilda Lake, Marie Lake ? McMurray ? Kirby ? Grouse ? Birch Mountain ? Gregoire ? Leismer ? Ipiatik ? Wabiskaw ? Kirby, Ipiatik ? Grand Rapids…
CNQ Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Tremendous Potential PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 26 Massive Resource to Exploit McMurray 49 billion barrels Wabiskaw 9 billion barrels Carbonates 10 billion barrels…
CNQ Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Growth Plan Phase Primrose South/North ? CSS Primrose East ? CSS Kirby South ? SAGD Kirby North Phase 1 ? SAGD Grouse ? SAGD Primrose Expansion ? CSS / SAGD C Kirby North Phase 2 ? SAGD Gregoire…
CNQ Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Focused Execution Plan ? Primrose ? Causation review and remediation of seepage to surface ? Continue with cost effective pad adds ? Progress Follow Up Processes ? Evaluate facility steam expansion ?…
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands 2014 Plan 2013F 2014B %Change Production (Mbbl/d) 100-107 120-135 23% Drilling (net wells) Primrose producers 134 15 Kirby South producers 8 - Strats 73 130 Service / observation wells 64 54 Total 279…
CNQ Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Pad Add Profitability PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 30 Lowest Cost In Situ Production in Canada Source: FirstEnergy. Peers include: COP Surmont, CVE Christina Lake, CVE Foster…
CNQ Primrose Plan ? Going Forward* ? All wells, including old legacy wells, thoroughly reviewed for the potential to fail mechanically ? All wells with identified potential to fail will be repaired prior to additional steaming ?…
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Kirby South ? First steam September 16, 2013 ? First shipment of crude oil from commissioning activities November 4, 2013 ? Ramp up to 40,000 bbl/d by Q4/14 ~0.8 Kilometers Evaporators Tank Farm…
North American Crude Oil Markets Canadian Natural?s Viewpoint ? Pipeline/transportation infrastructure is complex ?Misconceptions are common ? Significant North American heavy oil demand ?260,000 bbl/d PADD II demand increase…
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2013 2016F 2019F 2022F 2025F Crude Supply Dispositions With Keystone XL Take Away Capacity is Sufficient to Meet Supply Forecast Source: CAPP , Enbridge and Company reports. Note: Capacity…
CNQ Crude Supply Dispositions Without Keystone XL PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Incremental Rail Capacity Will be Added to Meet Supply 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2013 2016F 2019F 2022F Western…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands Core Area Summary ? World Class asset ? 14.4 billion barrels BIIP* ? 2P SCO reserves ? 3.4 billion barrels** ? Best estimate contingent resources other than reserves ? 3.3 billion barrels of bitumen*** ?…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands 2014 Plan PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 37 Focus on Operational Excellence 2013F 2014B % Change Production (Mbbl/d) 100-108 107-115 7% Sustaining Capital ($ million) $290 $260…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands Targeted Fixed vs. Variable Operating Costs ? Labour is a major portion of fixed costs ? Production increases 2.4x while labour increases 1.4x ? Introduction of thickeners, saves energy, reduces cost ? Increase…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands Efficiencies Achieved Through Expansion ? Reliability and efficiencies will be achieved through completion of original design of Phase 1,2,3 with higher vacuum yield and a more integrated, energy-efficient…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands Production Capacity Plan* ? Moving Phase 2A into 2014* PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 41 Future Expansion 110 Mbbl/d up to 250 Mbbl/d 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000…
CNQ Canadian Natural 2014 Budget Summary 2014B Cash Flow $8.7 billion Capital $7.7 - $8.1 billion Crude oil & NGLs production growth 9% growth Capital for future production $3.6 billion ~45% Capital flexibility in original budget…
CNQ $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 2013F 2014B 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Canadian Natural Targeted Total Corporate Free Cash F PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Free Cash Flow Growing Note: Dependent upon economic…
CNQ Free Cash Flow Uses 1. Resource development ? Executing our defined plan 2. Dividends ? 14 consecutive years of dividend increases ? 31% CAGR (2009 ? 2014) ? Must be sustainable 3. Share purchases ? 11.0 million common shares…
CNQ Committed Management ? Substantial management and director wealth at stake ? Strong motivation for management to perform ? Delivers clear alignment with shareholder interests PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT…
CNQ Canadian Natural Advantage ? Strong, balanced assets deliver excess cash flow over near term growth requirements ? Free cash flow allocation ?Increase asset strength and free cash flow ? Resource development ? Opportunistic…
CNQ Who is Canadian Natural? ? Consistent value creation through successful ? Exploitation ? Exploration ? Opportunistic acquisitions ? 100% of reserves subject to independent evaluation PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH |…
CNQ PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 52 Effective - Repeatable - Efficient Primary Heavy Crude Oil Key Advantages in the Area ? Flexible and repeatable ? Year round access ? Efficient rig fleet delivers repeatable…
CNQ PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 53 Technology Unlocks Value Primary Heavy Crude Oil Unlocking Resources ? Horizontal wells ?Two main applications ? Oil over water ? Less permeable pools - 20,000 40,000…
CNQ PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 54 Industry Leading EOR Technology Pelican Lake Polymerflood ? What is polymer? ? It is a non-toxic polyacrylamide powder mixed with water ? Why does it help recovery? ?…
CNQ PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 55 Pelican Lake Polymerflood Expansion Polymerflood at end of 2011 49% 5 Year Polymer Plan 73% 2012 / 2013 Polymer Plan 56% Contingent 97%
CNQ Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Primrose / Wolf Lake Development Plan PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Greater Than 900 CSS Future Horizontal Wells Primrose South 50 wells ? 2013 15 wells ? 2014 96 wells ? 2017 120…
CNQ Primrose Seepage to Surface Update ? Seepage contained ? Cleanup >80% complete ? Causation review well underway ? Confident wellbore failure is root cause PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 58
CNQ Primrose Causation Review Update Wellbore Pathway PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 59 ? Clearwater reservoir is 500m deep ? 3 barriers ?Clearwater Shale ?Grand Rapids Formation ?Colorado Group Shales Paleo
CNQ Primrose Causation Review Update ? Working well with the AER ? Results to date: ?4 legacy wells identified as likely wellbore failures ?2 of 4 have identified mechanical failures ? Further delineation required to prove…
CNQ Kirby North Kirby West Kirby South CNQ Lands Acquisition Lands Kirby South Plant (Steam & Oil Treating) Kirby North Plant (Steam & Oil Treating) Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Kirby Project ? Two main plants ? 100% working…
CNQ PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 62 Similar Rock Quality to Foster Creek Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Kirby South Phase 1 Geology Foster Creek Type Log SAGD PAY TOP SAGD PAY BASE Kirby South Type Log SAGD PAY…
Expanding Pipeline Options ? Access to New Markets Superior Fort McMurray Kitimat Edmonton Steele City Sarnia Montreal Quebec City Portland St. John Enbridge Gateway 525 Mbbl/d Crude Export Line (2017+) Vancouver Denver…
USGC Heavy Oil Demand PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 65 31% 2.3 MMbbl/d 37% 2.8 MMbbl/d 31% 2.3 MMbbl/d 28% 2.1 MMbbl/d 41% 3.1 MMbbl/d Source: Muse Stancil. Note: Assume 7.5 MMbbl/d of USGC refining…
CNQ Redwater Upgrader / Refinery ? Project sanctioned November 2012 ? 50,000 bbl/d additional bitumen conversion capacity ?Canadian Natural ? 50% ownership ? Return on capital generated by tolls ?30 year tolling agreement ?Tolls…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands Site Layout PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 67 60+ Years of Operation at 250,000 bbl/d of SCO Lease 11 Lease 12 Lease 15 Lease 19 Lease 20 Lease 18 Lease 25 Tailings Pond Northwest…
Horizon Oil Sands Original Design for Phase 3 Capacity Slide 68 ? Design optimized at 250,000 bbl/d of quality SCO ? Equipment redundancy increases reliability ? Improvement of 4% production yield (SCO per ton of ore) as Phase 2 is…
CNQ Horizon Oil Sands Expansion Update ? Overall expansion 30% physically complete PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 69 Future Expansion 110 Mbbl/d up to 250 Mbbl/d Reliability (5,000 bbl/d capacity) ? Projects on…
CNQ Revolving Bank Credit Facilities (C$ million) Mat Revolving bank line 1 $3,000 June 2 Revolving bank line 2 $1,500 June 2 Operating demand loan $ 200 Dem North Sea operating line (?15 million) $ 25 Dem Total bank lines $4,725…
CNQ 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 C$ Public US$ Public (converted to C$ Equivalent) Maturity Schedule Public Debt PREMIUM VALUE | DEFINED GROWTH | INDEPENDENT Slide 72 (C$…
Hedging At November 7, 2013, the Company had the following net derivative financial instruments and physical sales outstanding: Sales contracts Note: The Company?s outstanding commodity derivative financial instruments are expected to…
Physical crude oil sales Remaining term Volume Weighted average price Fixed WCS differential ($/bbl) Index Crude Oil Oct 2013 ? Dec 2013 17,000 bbl/d US$21.49 WTI Jan 2014 ? Mar 2014 8,000 bbl/d US$21.89 WTI Apr 2014 ? Jun 2014…
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Operational Information Daily production, before royalties Crude oil and NGLs (Mbbl/d) 331 316 355 425 389 451 Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,668 1,495 1,315 1,243 1,257 1,220 Barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE/d)…
Results of operations (C$ million, except per share) Cash flow from operations 6,198 6,969 6,090 6,333 6,547 6,013 per share ? Basic 5.75 6.45 5.62 5.82 5.98 5.48 Net earnings 2,608 4,985 1,580 1,673 2,643 1,892 per share ? Basic 2.42…
Q4/13 Guidance 2013 Original 2014 Budget Guidance Guidance Daily Production Volumes (before royalties) Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,195 - 1,205 1,085 - 1,145 1,140 - 1,180 Crude oil and NGLs (Mbbl/d) North America 255 - 270 250 - 262 261 -…
Note: Interest rates are subject to change depending upon short term rate changes. Cash income taxes are subject to variation with commodity prices and the level and classification of capital expenditures. Cash PRT is subject to…
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED 2500, 855 - 2nd Street S.W., Calgary, Alberta, T2P 4J8 Telephone: (403) 514-7777 Facsimile: (403) 514-7888 Email: ir@cnrl.com Steve W. Laut President Tim S. McKay Chief Operating Officer and…