Regional energy challenges in New England and Eastern Canada For 39th Annual Conference of New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP) August 31, 2015 St. Johns, Newfoundland and Labrador By Adam Sieminski…
Mandate: EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment…
EIA information is used by a range of stakeholders Examples of Activities Government EIA Customers Executive Agencies WH, DOE, & EPA use EIA data to track energy markets and program performance and to analyze policy proposals Media…
Regional energy trade North American Energy Forum November 19, 2014 4
North American border crossing points for oil, natural gas, and electricity Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 5
North American border crossing points for oil, natural gas, and electricity Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 6
Natural Gas NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 7
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from various published studies NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 8
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day Eagle…
Rising production in Marcellus and Utica has turned the Northeastern U.S. into a net exporter of natural gas Source: Bentek Energy NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 10
Natural gas prices track closer to Henry Hub except for points in Northeast (NYC and Boston) when constrained, otherwise lower Source: Bloomberg NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 11
Recent and planned pipeline reversals reflect high levels of natural gas production in the Northeast Sources: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), trade press, company websites, SNL Financial, and BENTEK Energy LLC (Bentek)…
Proposed natural gas pipelines in New England Sources: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), trade press, company websites, SNL Financial, and BENTEK Energy LLC (Bentek) NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 13
Natural gas imports and exports by border points Source: Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, Natural Gas Imports and Exports First Quarterly Report 2015 NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 14
Flows of natural gas at Niagara, 2008 - 2015 Flows from Canada to the United States at Niagara, New York Source: LCIEI; daily throughputs at Niagara NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 15
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Projected U.S. natural gas trade reflects the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices, along with resource outcomes U.S. natural gas imports and exports billion cubic feet per day trillion cubic feet History…
Canadian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Projects LNG Project Location Import Export Name (Bcf) (Bcf) AC LNG Byers Cove, 2.64 2.38 Nova Scotia Pieridae Energy Goldboro, 1.15 1.61 (Canada) Ltd. Nova Scotia Bear Head LNG Point…
For oil prices the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price 25 Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval…
Electricity NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 20
U.S. electricity trade with Canada terawatthours exports imports exports imports Sources: U..S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from EIA and the National Energy Board of Canada NEG/ECP August 31,…
New Englands electricity generation by fuel in the Reference case, 2000-2040 electricity net generation billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 160 140 120 100 20% 57% Natural gas 80 45% 16% 60 30% 16% Renewables 18% 40…
New Englands renewable electricity generation by fuel type in the Reference case, 2000-2040 electricity net generation billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 40 30 Wind 20 Solar Biomass 10 MSW/LFG Conventional…
EPAs Clean Power Plan NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 24
Final EPA Clean Power Plan Rule Sets Carbon Pollution Standards for new, modified and reconstructed power plants. Rule offers flexibility in implementation Interim and final source-specific CO2 intensity standards. Goals are measured:…
Final EPA Clean Power Plan Rule (cont.) Interstate and international trading of renewable energy generation (including Canadian hydro must be incremental and installed after 2012, including Evaluation, Measurement and Verification (EM&V)…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Data Crude Oil Imports www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/data Drilling Productivity Report ww.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/ International Energy Portal…
Supplemental Slides NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 28
Northeast Power Coordinating Council New York (NYC-Westchester, Long Island, Upstate New York) NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 29
New Yorks electricity generation by fuel in the Reference case, 2000-2040 electricity net generation billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 175 150 125 31% 40% 42% Natural gas 100 20% 75 Renewables 25% 22% 22% 50 Nuclear…
New Yorks renewable electricity generation by fuel type in the Reference case, 2000-2040 electricity net generation billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 40 Wind 30 MSW/LFG Solar Biomass 20 Conventional hydroelectric…
Northeast Power Coordinating Council New England + New York NEG/ECP August 31, 2015 32
New England and New Yorks electricity generation by fuel in the Reference case, 2000-2040 electricity net generation billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 350 300 250 26% 49% Natural gas 200 43% 18% 150 Renewables 22%…
New England and New York s renewable electricity generation by fuel type in the Reference case, 2000-2040 electricity net generation billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 70 60 Wind 50 Solar Biomass 40 MSW/LFG 30 20…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption billion cubic feet per day trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 Residential Commercial Transportation**…
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