Canada?s Oil & Gas on a Global Stage September 2013
Looking Forward Continuing Responsible Growth Energy Markets Environment Benefits
Global Primary Energy Demand Source: International Energy Agency ? New Policies Scenario World Energy Outlook 2011 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 million…
U.S. Shale Gas Production By Play Shale gasproduction (dry) billion cubic feet per day Shale gas production (dry) trillion cubic feet Other U.S. shale gas Bakken (ND and MT) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA…
Canadian Resource Picture has Grown Significantly and Rapidly 2000 390 TCF* 70 years of supply ? Technological advances have ?unlocked? vast unconventional gas resources. ? Resource assessments are ongoing (GSC, NEB, and others) in…
Operating Practices for Hydraulic Fracturing
Current Disposition of W. Canada?s Natural Gas Production (2012) TransCanada Transmission Mainline TQ&M Westcoast Kern River Northwest Northern Border TransCanada Alberta (NGTL) NGPL ANR ANR El Paso PG&E SoCal PGT…
Imports to Asian Economies with Growing Natural Gas Requirements (Bcf/d) 10 Source: EIA 2013 International Energy Outlook Growth of 27 Bcfd or 167% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 China India…
Canadian Production ? Market Constrained Case and New Market Opportunity Case 12 Eastern Canada CBM Western Canada Unconventional Western Canada Conventional Market Constrained Case New Market Opportunity Case
Canadian Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) & Conventional Production 14 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Actual Forecast Eastern Canada Pentanes June 2012 Forecast…
U.S. Oil Demand and Sources of Supply Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Crude Oil Production U.S. Other Liquids Production U.S. Imports 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan-Nov Thousand barrels per day Venezuela Canada Mexico KXL is intended to meet U.S. needs ? especially for Gulf…
2012 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by Source Thousand Barrels per Day AB,BC,SK PADD V - excl CA CA PADD IV PADD II - North PADD II - South PADD II - East PADD III - Gulf Coast ON QC Atlantic Canada PADD 1 East…
Access to Markets ? Pipeline Expansions in Development Enbridge Gateway Enbridge Mainline Enbridge Southern Access TransCanada Energy East Enbridge Line 9 Reversal Enbridge Spearhead North ExxonMobil Pegasus Enb/Energy Transfer…
WCSB Takeaway Capacity vs. Supply Forecast 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Western Canadian supply and U.S. Bakken movements TransCanada Energy East Trans Mountain Expansion…
Crude Oil Rail Exports Western Canada vs. North Dakota ? Opportunities: ? Relatively quick ? Flexibility ? Less diluent ? Use in both directions ? Challenges: ? Recent safety ? Higher costs ? Limited loading and tank car…
8 6 4 2 0 10 12 14 China India European Union United States Japan Korea mmb/d Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario 2005 2011 2020 2035 Changing Global Oil Import Needs Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, EIA 22
Global GHG Emissions GHG emissions from oil sands: ? 0.14% of global CO2 emissions ? 7.8% of Canada?s GHG emissions ? 26% reduction in intensity from 1990 Global Emissions Canada?s 2% Sources: 1. United Nations Statistics Division…
North American GHG Emissions (2011) for Coal-fired Power and Oil Sands 0-15 mtonnes 16-50 mtonnes 51-100+ mtonnes Legend U.S. Coal fired power generating plants Canadian coal-fired power generating plants Canadian oil sands…
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 North Sea - Forties Brazil - Tupi Saudi Arabia - Arab Light US Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005) Iraq - Kirkuk Blend Cdn Oil Sands: Mining Dilbit (PFT) Mexico - Maya Venezuela Bachaquero US - Mars Cdn…
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ? Carbon regulation ? Provincial Regulation ? Covers 100% of oil sands ? Mandatory 12% reduction ? Carbon price since July 2007 ? Federal Regulation ? Alignment with US (17% target and vehicle emissions…
Less Energy, Less Water and Less Land ? Accelerating innovation environmental performance in the oil sands ? Canadian Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) ? Alternatives to reduce the need for both water and energy (steam) ?…
? Industry will invest $63 billion in Canada in 2013 ? Largest single private sector investor in Canada ? Payments to governments average about $18 billion per year ? Oil and gas accounts for ? 20% of value on Toronto Stock Exchange…
1. Do we still need oil? ? Opportunities for growth together with new energy forms 2. To which Markets? ? East, West, South ? as a global supplier, we will need infrastructure to them all 3. Is it Environmentally Responsible? ?…