5 10 16 Introduction Global Meeting fundamentals growing demand 17 Transportation 26 Residential and commercial The Outlook 32 Industrial 40 Electricity generation for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy is our long-term…
48 54 70 Lowering Fulfilling Energy today emissions future supply and tomorrow 58 Liquids 72 Data 64 Natural gas 78 Glossary
4
Energy today Another positive trend is our ability to find ways to use energy far more efficiently, curbing growth in energy usage and emissions. The world uses about 10 percent less energy per unit of economic output than it did in…
Energy tomorrow We expect the member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), where CO2 emissions are declining, to lead this shift. However, China will also play a significant Over The Outlook…
To keep pace with demand, the world will need to pursue all economic energy sources. In 2040, oil and natural gas will likely be nearly 60 percent of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching a 25 percent share.…
Developing Our energy to 2040: nations will lead gains in GDP and Seven things to know living standards Modern energy is one of mankinds most complex endeavors, While developed economies still enjoy the worlds highest standards of…
Natural gas grows more than any other energy source Technology has the highest Demand for natural gas is growing rapidly in part because potential and it is the cleanest-burning major fuel. Gas also is abundant and the greatest…
Global fundamentals What will the worlds energy needs look like in 2040 and beyond Answering this question begins with recognizing the fundamental forces that continue to shape long-term energy trends in nations around the world.…
The worlds demand for energy China and India. By 2040, India will have passed China as the worlds most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. China and India also is driven by many factors, but the lead the developing world in raising…
Long-term trends in demographics, Because of these rising incomes, we expect the world to see the largest expansion of the global middle class in history. The Brookings Institution productivity and income estimates that the number of…
Near-term dynamics in the global economy and energy market In 2009, the world economy experienced the worst global recession in the post-World War II years. Since then, apart from an initial rebound in 2010, recovery has been slow…
Global fundamentals projections Charting Demographics GDP the numbers Demographics Billion people Trillion 2010 Billion 4 people 160 4 140 Rest of World Age 65+ 3 Age 65+ 120 Key Growth Population is growing, life spans are…
2040 GDP per capita Urbanization ratio Energy demand Thousand PPP Percent Quadrillion BTUs 75 Urbanization 100 ratio 1200 Percent 100 OECD32 1000 80 Turkey 100 Energy savings China OECD32 Indonesia 50 80 Indonesia Turkey 800…
Meeting growing demand People use energy in many ways every single day. These needs will grow in coming decades as populations and living standards continue to rise. Income growth and urbanization in developing economies are…
Transportation We want this to go there Essentially all of this growth is projected to come from non-OECD countries, where transportation demand will likely rise by about We want that to come here two-thirds. In these countries, more…
Even so, vehicle penetration in developing countries is projected to be only about one quarter of OECD32 levels by 2040. Lower incomes account for much of this gap, but other factors include extensive and growing use of motorcycles in…
Improved fuel economy is tied to advances in technology. Examples Heavy-duty transport grows with trade include vehicle light-weighting through durable plastic components, better tire liners, and advanced engine and powertrain systems.…
Aviation, marine and rail - the Growing diesel demand fastest-growing subsectors The vast majority of transportation energy needs today are met by oil, Just as economic growth and trade will spur demand for energy for with gasoline…
The promise of natural gas fuel Natural gas holds great promise for the transportation sector due to its potential to reduce fuel costs and also help meet emerging emission requirements. Today, natural gas represents about 2 percent…
Transportation projections Charting Global transportation demand Transportation demand by region the numbers MBDOE 75 MBDOE 30 When we look at the transportation sector, one feature is clear: 50 20 increasingly, demand…
Commercial transportation demand Global transportation demand by fuel by sector Commercial transportation by region MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE 75 50 50 Other Rail Natural gas 40 Marine 40 Jet fuel Asia Pacific Fuel oil 50 30 Aviation 30…
Transportation projections Light-duty vehicle demand trends Light-duty vehicle fleet by region Light-duty vehicles and motorcycles MBDOE Millions Billions 10 750 2.0 Light-duty vehicles 8 1.5 500 6 United States Key Growth…
Light-duty vehicle fleet by type Global vehicle fuel efficiency Billions Average mpg Average liters per 100 kilometers 1.75 Electric/PHEV*/fuel cell 75 50 DATA AS OF 10/30/2015 Consumption Low High Avg 1.50 Hybrids 10 7.45 6.27 40 10…
Residential & commercial Every time we turn on the lights, As consumers gain wealth, they typically seek new and larger homes. And they can afford to buy energy-consuming technologies that improve their turn on a computer, or turn…
More diverse fuels at home More commercial needs An unfortunate fact is that many parts of the world, particularly Africa and We see rising prosperity and increased urbanization creating demand India, continue to rely on biomass fuels…
Residential & commercial projections Charting the numbers Residential & commercial demand by region DATA AS OF 10/13/2015 OECD32 China India Af Quadrillion BTUs 00 44.43 12.4346 6.4604 9.4 150 45.0989 12.5273 6.5363 9.6 Surveys…
Residential & commercial demand by fuel DATA AS OF 09/22/2015 Energy use per household Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Million BTUsElec Other (Renew. + Mkt Heat) per household 100 150 00 15.35 20.95 3.83 10029.19 22.83 5.74…
Residential & commercial projections Chinas durable goods ownership Refrigerator sales, 20022022 Electricity use per household Chinas Average durable ownership goods per 100 ownership households Refrigerator sales, 20022022…
China and Africa: a closer look From 2014 through 2040, we expect China and Africa to lead the world in In Africa, on the other hand, we see the main driver as gains in residential and commercial energy demand; each will account for…
Industrial Toyota, GE, Samsung, Bayer China manufacturing shifts focus and thousands more. The industrial China has dominated the industrial sector since around 2000, when it began to rapidly expand its economy and build out its…
Making more with less energy, cleaner fuels Just as todays new cars and homes are more energy-efficient than ones from previous generations, industries continue to make more with less through new technologies and processes. For…
The energy and emissions saved through efficiency is positive for Chemicals and the middle class the environment, as is the fact that the mix of fuels used by industry continues to grow less carbon-intense. Chemicals are a part of…
Globally, about 60 percent of the energy in the chemical sector is used as feedstock. Naphtha, an oil derivative, had been the worlds primary feedstock for decades, and still accounts for about 55 percent of the market. But relatively…
Industrial projections Charting the numbers Global industrial demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs Industrial demand by fuel type Quadrillion BTUs 300 300 250 250 When we look at industrial energy trends, Chemical DATA AS OF…
Industrial demand growth 19702000 20002014 20142040 (60 quadrillion BTUs) (60 quadrillion BTUs) (60 quadrillion BTUs) Rest of World China Industrial demand Rest of WorldIndustrial growth demand ChinaIndustrial growthdemand growth…
Industrial projections Industrial energy intensity Heavy industry fuel mix transition Thousand BTUs per dollar of GDP (2010) Fuel share in percent 20 100 Other 80 15 Electricity/heat 60 10 Gas 40 China 5 20 Coal Rest…
Chemical demand by region Chemical demand by fuel type Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 75 25 75 75 Rest of World Rest of World 20 United States 50 Key Growth Key Growth 15 India 50 India 50 China 10 China 25 25 OECD32 5…
Electricity generation Thomas Edison probably could not have envisioned all the ways people would use electricity in the 21st century. Electricity powers the factories that make the worlds goods. It provides light, heat and air…
Electricity demand driven by Natural gas expected to pull even with coal in non-OECD growth electricity generation The need for electricity is rising in all parts of the world, but growth is Electricity is a secondary form of energy,…
Nuclear, wind, solar also grow Nations choose different paths on emissions The amount of electricity from nuclear power is expected to more than The generation of electricity is the worlds single largest source of CO2 double from 2014…
In the United States, utilities and other power generators increased their use of natural gas over the past decade as they took advantage of the rapid growth in domestic unconventional gas production. During this period, the attractive…
Electricity generation projections Charting the numbers Electricity demand by sector Thousand TWh 40 40000 Transportation Of all the energy-demand sectors we study when preparing The Outlook, power generation is perhaps the…
Electricity demand by region Per capita electricity demand by region Thousand TWh MWh per person 40 15 40000 40000 2014 Rest of World United States 30 Rest of World Key Growth 30000 10 30000 Key Growth India 20 India 20000…
Electricity generation projections Global capacity GW 1500 Share of global electricity generation Share of TWh Oil 2 040 Other renewables Coal 1000 2014 Capacity Wind and solar 500 Nuclear Effective utilization…
Two paths to CO reduction Electricity generation by region U.S. generation share, Germany generation share, CO intensity of consumed electricity, Thousand TWh percent percent grams of CO per kilowatt hour delivered 12 100 Oil 800…
Lowering emissions Energy and human progress are closely linked, with expanding access to reliable, affordable and cleaner fuels helping power substantial gains in living standards over the past two centuries. Today, as always, a…
Emissions As people and nations look for OECD leads transition in emissions ways to reduce risks of global For purposes of The Outlook, we continue to assume that governments will enact policies that impose rising costs on…
Options for addressing long-term climate Under a cost-of-carbon approach, the incentives for reducing GHG emissions as well as the most cost-effective solutions would become change risks readily apparent. For example, in the United…
Need for flexibility, transparency The challenge of meeting global energy needs and managing the risks of climate change is real and daunting. But it is not the only challenge. In fact, the United Nations recently adopted a set of 17…
Emissions projections Charting Energy-related CO emissions by region Energy-related CO emissions per capita the numbers Billion metric tonnes 40 Tonnes per person 12 10 Rest of World 30 Forecasting emissions requires us to…
Energy-related CO intensity United States CO abatement costs Tonnes per thousand dollars of GDP (2010) 1.2 Improved gasoline vehicles 1.0 Gas into power 0.8 Nuclear Hybrid vehicles 0.6 Carbon capture and sequestration 0.4…
Fulfilling future supply Our energy choices have never been as plentiful or diverse. Thanks to advances in energy technology, today we have access to shale gas and tight oil from North America, LNG from the Middle East, oil from…
As a result of advances in In 2014, the global economy consumed about 550 quadrillion BTUs of energy equivalent to using the energy in about 12 billion gallons of technology, and the cumulative gasoline every single day. And demand is…
Oil remains top fuel, gas moves to the No. 2 Nuclear, renewables see strong growth position ahead of coal Nuclear energy is a mainstay of electricity generation in many countries We expect oil to remain the worlds largest energy…
Growing global trade in energy Global fuel demand in 2040 projections helps consumers Quadrillion BTUs 250 In addition to expanding its energy supplies, the world also continues to 0.7% Average annual growth rate 20142040 enhance its…
Liquids Ever since the first modern oil Significant growth from tight oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania Barely on the radar screen a decade ago, tight oil oil dispersed in shale and other tight rock formations is expected to…
Natural gas liquids, deepwater, oil sands also gain share We expect production of NGLs to also expand significantly through 2040. Because NGLs are produced in association with natural gas, rising gas production will increase supply…
North America could emerge as an Another major shift will be seen in Asia Pacific. Already the worlds largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacifics net imports are projected oil exporter to rise by over 50 percent between 2014 and 2040…
Scale of global energy supply is enormous Technology is not just expanding our daily oil production; it also continues to increase the amount of oil and liquid fuels we can count on for the future. In 1981, the U.S. Geological Survey…
Liquids projections Charting the numbers Liquids supply by type MBDOE Technology-driven supplies MBDOE 120 20 Biofuels Other In this years Outlook, we continue to 100 NGLs see a clear trend in liquid fuels: sources 15 Tight…
Liquids trade balance by region Crude and condensate Crude and condensate Conventional crude and condensate Deepwater Oil sands Tight oil NGLs Other Demand resources MBDOE resources Trillion barrels 45 Trillion 6 barrels 6 5 5…
Natural gas Global demand for natural gas is Gas resources: abundant and geographically diverse seen rising by 50 percent from 2014 to 2040, faster than most The world has an abundance of natural gas. With production technologies…
Unconventional gas shakes up the supply picture Unconventional gas resources have radically altered the supply picture in North America. By 2040, we expect unconventional supplies to account for nearly 90 percent of North America gas…
Global trade, LNG expanding Asia Pacifics gas imports rise to meet demand growth Inter-regional trading will play a key role in meeting natural gas demand through 2040, particularly in the Asia Pacific region where demand is With a…
North America emerges as a gas exporter While Asias need for imports rises, a different story is developing in North America. A decade ago, North America was planning to import significant amounts of gas to meet its rising demand. But…
Natural gas projections Charting Gas trade balance by region the numbers Conventional production Unconventional production Demand BCFD 150 Net exports 125 Net imports Natural gas has long been a staple of global energy…
Gas supply by source Gas exports by region Natural gas resources BCFD BCFD Thousand TCF 600 50 Natural 35 gas resources Thousand TCF 35 30 500 LNG 40 30 25 400 Pipeline 30 25 20 Remaining resource 300 20 Remaining 15…
Energy today and tomorrow With more people using energy to improve their lives, we estimate that global energy demand will be 25 percent higher in 2040 than it was in 2014. Meeting energy demand safely, reliably and affordably…
71
Data Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs, unless otherwise noted) Average annual change % change Share of total 2014 2025 2014 2014 2025 2014 Regions 2000 2010 2014 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2014 2025 2040 World 418 525…
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total OECD 2014 2025 2014 2014 2025 2014 Energy by type 2000 2010 2014 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2014 2025 2040 Primary 225 230 225 227 220 0.1%…
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total Non-OECD 2014 2025 2014 2014 2025 2014 Energy by type 2000 2010 2014 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2014 2025 2040 Primary 192 295 332 416 483…
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total 2014 2025 2014 2014 2025 2014 Regions 2000 2010 2014 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2014 2025 2040 AFRICA Primary 22 30 33 43 60 2.5% 2.2% 2.3%…
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total 2014 2025 2014 2014 2025 2014 Regions 2000 2010 2014 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2014 2025 2040 LATIN AMERICA Primary 20 27 29 36 45 1.9%…
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total 2014 2025 2014 2014 2025 2014 Regions 2000 2010 2014 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2014 2025 2040 RUSSIA/CASPIAN Primary 38 43 44 45 44 0.3%…
79
Exxon Mobil Corporation Corporate Headquarters 5959 Las Colinas Blvd. Irving, Texas 75039-2298 exxonmobil.com The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporations internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and…
Loading...
