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Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum

Lundin Petroleum · Feb 3, 2016 · 71 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 1
    Lundin Petroleum 3 February 2016 Capital Market Day
  2. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 2
    01.16 Grow production at low cost 2016 guidance 60,000–70,000 boepd at below USD 10/boe operating costs >150,000 boepd when Johan Sverdrup on full-field plateau Operating costs at significantly below USD 10/boe Continue to pursue an…
  3. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 3
    Lundin Petroleum Financial Flexibility Reserve base lending (RBL) remains core to our funding. USD 5 billion RBL accordion signed Robust balance sheet with liquidity headroom of MUSD 760 (RBL + exploration refund facility) Access to…
  4. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 4
    WF12158 p01 01.16 Lundin Petroleum 2015 Production (1) Includes Indonesia divested assets Norway, 64% France, 9% Netherlands, 5% Malaysia, 17% Indonesia, 5%(1) 2015 Production 2015 production latest guidance: 32,000 boepd (1)…
  5. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 5
    Lundin Petroleum January 2016 Average Production: 64,000 boepd Net 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30…
  6. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 6
    WF12158 p02 01.16 Lundin Petroleum 2016 Production Guidance High Low 2016 production guidance: 60 – 70,000 boepd Production guidance reflects the ramp up of Edvard Grieg 0 40 20 80 60 100 0 40 20 80 60 100 2016 Net…
  7. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 7
    Lundin Petroleum Production Forecast from Ongoing Development 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ... 23,800(1) 32,300 30,400(1) 33,000(1) 60–70,000 Other existing contingent and prospective resourc not…
  8. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 8
    WF12158 p04 01.16 Norway - Greater Alvheim Area 2015 Net Production 14,800 boepd PDO 0 50 100 150 MMboe 200 250 350 400 300 Gross Alvheim Estimated Ultimate Recovery 2C Contingent Resources Cumulative Production End of…
  9. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 9
    Norway – Greater Alvheim Area Continued Sub-Surface Success L4/EK2 Kn1/KA5 BoaKamS Boa Kam N BoaW Viper / Kobra Alvheim Field Drilled wells: Black Planned well: White CI:10m Kobra Viper 25/4-10S 25/7-6 25/7-5 2015 Wells L4…
  10. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 10
    Norway - Brynhild (WI 90%) 2015 Net Production 4,200 boepd Haewene Brim FPSO performance improving Water handling constraints resolved Integrity issues being resolved Water injection commenced - remains a challenge Facilities uptime…
  11. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 11
    Norway - Edvard Grieg (WI 50%) Production Commenced - Well Potential >90,000 boepd gross Strong initial facilities and reservoir performance 3 wells on line – total well capacity >90,000 boepd Significantly exceeds PDO expectation…
  12. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 12
    WF12158 p08 01.16 Malaysia - Bertam (WI 75%) 2015 Net Production 5,480 boepd Average 2015 uptime: 98% Strong facilities performance – 98% uptime Initially planned drilling programme complete A15 infill well drilling Q2 Good…
  13. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 13
    WF12164 p01 01.16 2P Reserves 31 December 2015 Reserves increase (2) 292% Total 685.3 MMboe As per industry standards the reserve replacement ratio is defined as the ratio of reserve additions to production during the year,…
  14. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 14
    WF12164 p02 01.16 2P Reserves Changes MMboe Produced in 2015 Revisions Sales / Acquisitions +512.5 +0.1 Norway: + Johan Sverdrup matured from contingent resources to reserves + Volund infill well positive revision + Edvard Grieg…
  15. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 15
    WF12164 p03 01.16 2P Reserves History Excluding discontinued operations 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 MMboe Year End 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Malaysia Norway Tunisia…
  16. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 16
    WF12164 p04 01.16 Contingent Resources 31 December 2015 Luno II North discovery 12 – 26 MMboe gross Contingent Resources Rolvsnes oil discovery 3 – 16 MMboe gross Contingent Resources. Including prospective upside potential total…
  17. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 17
    5 01.16 Contingent Resources Changes -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Luno II Rolvsnes Singa Disposition SE Tor SB303 MMboe Revision net to Lundin Year end 2014 to Year end 2015 Malaysia: Norway: - Luno II and Rolvsnes discoveries -…
  18. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 18
    2016 Remaining Prospective Resources 1 Excludes completed Bambazon well 2016 net unrisked prospective resources Unrisked Norway Target Unrisked ~320 MMboe1 Target Risked ~87 MMboe Maligan Neiden Filicudi Fosen SE Asia 0…
  19. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 19
    WF11117 p4 23.11.15 Drilling Schedule 2016 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Netherlands exploration wells not included (1) Net Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMboe) (2) Chance of Geological Success (3) Net Risked Prospective Resources (MMboe) 3…
  20. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 20
    2015/2016 Capital Expenditure 0 400 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 200 600 800 Million USD Million USD 2,000 0 400 1,000 1,600 1,800 200 600 800 2,000 0 400 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,400 1,600 1,800 200 600 800…
  21. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 21
    Lundin Petroleum 2015 Development Activity 2015 Development: 1,060 MUSD 2015 Development: 1,060 MUSD Malaysia USD 160 million Norway - USD 880 million France / Netherlands USD 20 million Edvard Grieg - Topside Construction and…
  22. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 22
    CAPEX 2015 Guidance vs Actual 1,000 0 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 Million USD Million USD 1,250 1,300 1,000 0 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 2015 Guidance Edvard Grieg Field & Pipeline Johan Bertam Sverdrup…
  23. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 23
    WF12152 p09 12.15 Lundin Petroleum 2016 Development Activity 2016 Budget: 936 MUSD 2016 Budget: 936 MUSD Facilities Drilling Other 672 248 16 Norway, 903 Malaysia, 28 Continental Europe, 5 Norway - USD 903 million France…
  24. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 24
    WF12152 p02 12.15 2016 Exploration & Appraisal Activity Malaysia - 2 wells Sabah, East Malaysia Netherlands - 2 onshore exploration wells 2016 Budget: 145 MUSD 5 exploration wells in 2016 (1) Targeting net unrisked resources of…
  25. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 25
    2016 Forecast Netback (USD/boe) Revenue Cost of operations - Base - Projects Tariff & transportation Production taxes Inventory movements Other Cash Margin Netback Average Brent oil price USD/boe 31.70 -6.60 -1.00 -1.50…
  26. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 26
    WF12061 p23 01.16 2016 Forecast Cost of Operations (including projects) USD/boe 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 USD/boe 2016 Forecast 2015 Actual Norway 9.67 6.40 10.27 7.60 9.10 (FPSO sale) Total 7.45 Indonesia 0.0…
  27. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 27
    WF12061 p24 01.16 2016 Forecast Cost of Operations – Quarterly 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 11 11 Q1 2016 Forecast Note: FPSO sale completion assumed end Q116 and Indonesia sale completion assumed 1 Jan 2016 Q2 2016 Forecast…
  28. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 28
    2016 Forecast Depletion USD/boe 0 10 5 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 5 15 20 25 30 35 USD/boe 2016 Forecast 2015 Actual (1) Excludes depreciation of Bertam FPSO, Malaysia Norway 20.63 17.55 21.88 17.60 Total (1) 15.72…
  29. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 29
    2016 Forecast Tax Average Brent oil price USD/boe 30.00 40.00 50.00 Forecast 2016 Current tax credit Deferred tax credit/charge Total -3.65 -0.70 -4.35 -3.65 5.25 1.60 -0.50 8.00 7.50
  30. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 30
    ~ USD 2 billion(1) of tax assets in Norway (1) NOK 8.5/USD Norway Tax Value 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Million NOK 14,000 16,000 18,000 CT Historic Capex Depreciation at 25% SPT Historic Capex Depreciation…
  31. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 31
    2016 Forecast Profit Netback (USD/boe) Cash Margin Depletion/Depreciation G&A Financial items, net Profit/loss Before Tax Tax Profit/loss After Tax Average Brent oil price USD/boe 21.30 -18.95 -1.15 -8.60 -7.40 4.35 -3.05…
  32. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 32
    WF12061 p26 01.16 2016 Forecast EBITDA Netback (USD/boe) Average Brent oil price USD/boe 30.00 40.00 50.00 Forecast 2016 Cash Margin Netback General & Administration (1) EBITDA Netback 21.30 -1.00 20.30 30.25 -1.00 29.25…
  33. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 33
    2016 Forecast Operating Cash Flow Netback (USD/boe) Average Brent oil price USD/boe 30.00 40.00 50.00 Forecast 2016 Cash Margin Netback Cash Taxes Operating Cash Flow Netback 21.30 3.65 24.95 30.25 3.65 33.90 39.15 0.50…
  34. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 34
    2016 Funding Liquidity RBL ERF RBL Accordion RBL Cash Net Debt 31/12 Bertam FPSO sale 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 MUSD 4,300 3,858 760 million (committed) 1.65 billion (committed plus optional) 3,786 72…
  35. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 35
    WF12168 p14 01.16 2016 Forecast Funding & Liquidity (USD/boe) Brent oil price (USD) 30.00 40.00 Forecast 2016 Forecast 2016 50.00 MUSD Cash, General & Administrative / Financial Items -8.70 -8.55 -8.40 Development Capex…
  36. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 36
    Norway Strategy Focus on organic growth 2 key areas for exploration Utsira High Southern Barents Sea 3 key areas for development/production Alvheim Area: 3 fields Utsira High: E. Grieg, Luno II, J. Sverdrup Loppa High:…
  37. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 37
    WF12112 pt2 p06 09.15 Norway Utsira High Resources and Upside Potential 0 500 1,000 1,500 MMboe (gross) 2,000 2,500 3,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Utsira High Discoveries Year End Luno II/North Johan Sverdrup Apollo…
  38. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 38
    Norway Southern Barents Sea 0 KM 100 Operator Lundin Petroleum licences Partner Oil Gas Prospect Licenced Area Industry Broadband 3D Seismic 23rd Round Blocks Barents Sea Hoop Area Loppa High Area Southeast Barents Sea…
  39. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 39
    Norway Organisational Capability Exploration Drilling Development Operations Edvard Grieg Uptime [%] 0 50 100 2007 2015 0 50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Statoil 26% Others 28% Lundin Petroleum 46% (2)…
  40. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 40
    WF12165 p01 01.16 Norway Development Projects Ongoing Norwegian developments Edvard Grieg (Lundin 50% operator) Ivar Aasen Unit (Lundin 1.385%) Johan Sverdrup (Lundin 22.60%) Appraisal projects: Luno II (Lundin 50.0%, operator)…
  41. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 41
    Norway Edvard Grieg Development Edvard Grieg Platform Luno South Ivar Aasen Platform Gas Export to SAGE Edvard Grieg Ivar Aasen Oil Export to Grane Edvard Grieg Schematic Drilling 14 wells from jack-up rig – development drilling…
  42. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 42
    Edvard Grieg Project Update Project delivered on schedule and on budget 3 wells online, drilling performance on schedule Project is 96% complete, project close out continues into 2016 Power generation final commissioning Water and…
  43. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 43
    WF12154 p3 20.01.16 Edvard Grieg Production Performance 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Gross Production [boepd] Production Nov-15 Dec-15…
  44. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 44
    Edvard Grieg Positive Appraisal and Development Drilling Results Drilled Producer Planned Water injectors Planned Producer Tellus Edvard Grieg - 16/1-10 OP2 (A06) A11 OP3 (A10A) OP4 (A20) OP10 (A19) OP1 (A11AT2 )…
  45. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 45
    Edvard Grieg First Three Producers All three wells are high rate producers with petrophysical properties in line with, or better than, expectation Reservoir pressure decline trends more favorable than expected OP2 (A06) OP3…
  46. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 46
    01.16 Edvard Grieg 2016 Drilling Programme Oil producers 4th producer (OP4) is planned as high rate producer 5th producer (OP10) will be the first producer in the southern back basin Injectors WI-1 currently drilling WI-2 and…
  47. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 47
    01.16 Edvard Grieg 2016 Drilling Programme Oil producers 4th producer (OP4) is planned as high rate producer 5th producer (OP10) will be the first producer in the southern back basin Injectors WI-1 currently drilling WI-2 and…
  48. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 48
    WF112156 p6 01.16 Norway Johan Sverdrup Development 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 PDO Submitted – Phase I PDO Approval – Phase I PDO Submission – Phase II…
  49. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 49
    WF112156 p8 01.16 Norway Johan Sverdrup Development Johan Sverdrup Unit Johan Sverdrup core Sheet-like sand with large-scale lateral continuity (200 km2) Extremely high permeability – average 21 Darcy to >50 Darcy Connectivity…
  50. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 50
    Norway Johan Sverdrup – Phase 1 Development Project is progressing to schedule: PDO approved by MPE in August 2015 Major contracts awarded Pre-drilling to commence Q1 2016 Production start-up Q4 2019 Costs are coming down: Phase 1…
  51. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 51
    Norway Utsira High - Luno II Discovery PL359 Luno II (Lundin 50% operated) Luno II North oil discovery well 16/4-9S drilled in 2015 Well encountered a 23 metre oil column in a separate segment to the Luno II discovery and tested at…
  52. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 52
    WF12161 p11 01.16 Norway - Southern Barents Sea An Emerging Major Production Area 0 KM 50 Barents Sea Snøhvit Area Hammerfest Goliat development Johan Castberg discoveries Significant discovered resources Pipeline of…
  53. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 53
    Norway Strategy Focus on organic growth Inverted highs 2 key areas for exploration Utsira High Southern Barents Sea Application of latest technology Norway Barents Sea Norwegian Sea North Sea Utsira High Area Alvheim Area…
  54. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 54
    Norway Finding Cost and Value Creation Ekofisk Troll II Snorre Eldfisk Valhall Statfjord øst Statfjord Nord Heidrun Oseberg Gullfaks Gullfaks Sør Oseberg Sør Oseberg øst Balder Grane Njord Jotun Brage Tor Murchison…
  55. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 55
    Norway Lundin Petroleum - The Most Successful Explorer 2015 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011…
  56. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 56
    Norway - Utsira High Area Evolution 2004-2015 PL338 (2004) 0 KM 8 PL410 016 025 015 024 PL359 PL338 016 025 015 024 PL359 PL410 PL546 PL544 PL409 PL338 PL501 PL265 016 025 015 024 PL359 PL410 PL544 PL338…
  57. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 57
    Norway - Utsira High Exploration PL673 PL779 PL778 16/4-10 16/1-25 0016 0015 0024 0025 PL359 PL338 PL501 PL501 PL501B Johan Sverdrup Unit PL674 PL544 PL815 0 KM 10 PL338C Luno II Luno II North discovery Rolvsnes…
  58. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 58
    Norway - Southern Barents Sea Resources North Sea: 5.0 bn boe Norwegian Sea: 5.2 bn boe Barents Sea: 8.0 bn boe Yet-to-find resources - Norway Johan Castberg: 550 MMboe Alta: 224 MMboe 1 Gohta: 128 MMboe 1 Wisting Central: 117…
  59. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 59
    WF12161 p02 01.16 Norway – Southern Barents Sea Loppa High Exploration & Appraisal Barents Alta appraisal programme to continue in 2016/2017 Sea Norway Loppa High Area Gohta/Alta discoveries opens up the area for significant new…
  60. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 60
    Norway – Southern Barents Sea Loppa High Existing Discoveries PL609 (Lundin 40% operated) Discovery well (2014): 57m gross HC column – tested 3,300 bopd First appraisal Alta -2 (2015): Tested 860 bopd oil & 650 Mcfd gas Second…
  61. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 61
    Ørn Ugle Falk Conglomerates Dolomite TKobbe Klappmyss Havert Approx GOC Approx OWC Alta-2 Alta-1 Alta-3 Norway - Southern Barents Sea Alta Appraisal Cross section over Alta Alta Field Significant discovery – Alta wells 1, 2…
  62. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 62
    Norway - Southern Barents Sea Neiden Prospect – Re-entry 2016 PL609 (Lundin 40% operated) Carbonate prospect on trend with Alta/ Gohta Updip of Obelix well with oil shows in carbonate reservoirs Gross unrisked prospective resources…
  63. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 63
    Norway - Southern Barents Sea Filicudi Prospect – 2016 Well PL533 (Lundin 35% operated) Multiple prospects on trend with large Johan Castberg discovery “Double flat spot” on seismic reduces risk – similar response at Johan Castberg…
  64. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 64
    Norway - Southern Barents Sea 23rd Licence Round Signalhorn Dome Hammerfest Basin Loppa High Svalis Dome Tromsø Basin Bjørnøya Basin Sentralbanken High Haapet High Fedynsky High Nordkapp Basin Veslekari Dome Norway Finland…
  65. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 65
    2 exploration wells Malaysia 2016 Block Summary Malaysia Indonesia Indonesia Natuna Sea Malaysia Sabah Core Area Penyu Core Area 1 development well PM308A (WI 75%) PM307 (WI 75%) Bertam field PM319 (WI 85%) SB303 - Gas…
  66. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 66
    Malaysia Bertam Overview Bertam Development Facilities Bertam Location Map Malong Field Sotong Field PM319 PM307 PM308B PM308A Gurita PM307 - Lundin Petroleum 75% (operator), Petronas Carigali 25% 2P gross ultimate…
  67. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 67
    7 01.16 PDO development drilling programme completed Bertam-3 appraisal well identified eastern extension of the field A15 infill development well to be drilled Q2 Infill drilling opportunities being reviewed Malaysia Bertam Field…
  68. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 68
    WF12159 p10 01.16 Malaysia Indonesia Indonesia Malaysia Natuna Sea PM307 New high impact plays identified in Miocene channel systems PM328 Low costs - low commitment opportunities PM328 Potentially material new channel plays…
  69. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 69
    WF12163 p01 01.16 Overview France & Netherlands Long life steady production and cash flow Low capital requirement Hydrocarbon Type 2015 Production Net, boepd 2P Reserves Net (1), MMboe Best Estimates Contingent Resources Net (1),…
  70. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 70
    France Steady Value Creation 2015 Production: 2,730 boepd 2P Reserves: 19.1 MMboe Contingent Resources: 13.1 MMboe Operating cash flow MUSD 27 in 2015 Paris Basin Aquitaine Basin France historical production (bopd gross) 2,000…
  71. Capital Market Day – Lundin Petroleum – slide 71
    WF12163 p03 01.16 Netherlands Mature Gas Production 2015 Production: 1,746 boepd 2P Reserves: 2.0 MMboe Operating cash flow MUSD 13 in 2015 Netherlands historical production (boepd net) 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010…

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