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November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group

Mol Group · Nov 30, 2015 · 74 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 1
    INVESTOR PRESENTATION November 2015 1
  2. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 2
    CONTENT I. Executive summary 4 II. Upstream 18 III. Downstream 32 IV. Financials 50 V. Appendix 61 2
  3. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 3
    KEY GOALS AND MESSAGES: GROUP/FINANCIALS At least USD 2.2BN CCS GROUP EBITDA in 2015 with resilient integrated business model Up to USD 1.3BN ORGANIC CAPEX (2015), financed from Operating Cash Flow Strong balance sheet (1.0X NET…
  4. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 4
    I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
  5. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 5
    Executive Summary MOL GROUP: A MID-CAP INTEGRATED INTERNATIONAL OIL&GAS COMPANY INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL COMPANY OVERVIEW Market capitalization (30 Sep 2015; bn USD) 4.6 Countries of operation 33 CCS EBITDA (USD BN) Number…
  6. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 6
    Executive Summary UPSTREAM: GROWING INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO WITH STRONG, STABLE CEE PRESENCE KEY DATA 14 Exploration and 8 Production Countries Organic Reserve Replacement Ratio at 103% in 2014 Low cost producer: avg. unit OPEX at…
  7. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 7
    Executive Summary INCREASING ORGANIC PRODUCTION AND ACTIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT FOR FURTHER GROWTH BALANCE RISK AS WELL AS SEEK NEW ACCRETIVE GROWING PRODUCTION EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Gradual ramp up of…
  8. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 8
    Executive Summary DOWNSTREAM: DEEP INTEGRATION GUARANTEES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE CLEAN CCS-BASED DS UNIT EBITDA(1) (USD/BBL) 18 Peer range 16 MOL-Group 14 MOL-Group ex. INA 12 Bratislava 10 Danube 8 Rijeka 6 Sisak 4…
  9. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 9
    Executive Summary TARGETS USD 500MN ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT BY 2017 ON A 2014 BASIS DOWNSTREAM FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION BY 2017 (MN USD)1 Key Contributors 1 2 USD 350mn asset & market 1300 - 1400 1 efficiency improvement mostly…
  10. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 10
    Executive Summary NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION ACTIVITY PROVIDES STABLE RETURNS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES & MAIN DRIVERS Sole transmission system operator license Strategic location in the heart of CEE region for potential transit…
  11. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 11
    Executive Summary FINANCIALS: STRONG BALANCE SHEET HAS TOP PRIORITY CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY: organic CAPEX financed from operating cash flow 1.0X NET DEBT TO EBITDA & 18% NET GEARING (Q3 2015) At least USD 2.2BN CCS GROUP…
  12. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 12
    Executive Summary CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY: ORGANIC CAPEX FINANCED FROM OPERATING CASH FLOW OPERATING CASH FLOW VS. CAPEX (USD BN) Inorganic Organic Operating CF 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011…
  13. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 13
    Executive Summary RESILIENT BUSINESS MODEL CAPABLE OF GENERATING USD 2.2BN IN 2015, EVEN AT 55USD/BBL ENVIRONMENT EBITDA TARGET AND SENSITIVITY CAPEX PLAN MOL is relatively well shielded against the oil Scope adjustments and…
  14. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 14
    Executive Summary DIVIDEND: PREDICTABLE PAY-OUT WITH BALANCE SHEET STABILITY IN THE FOCUS DIVIDEND HISTORY OF LAST 4 YEARS (HUF BN) AND KEY PRINCIPLES 60 Pay out dividend to Special dividend shareholders whilst Regular dividend…
  15. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 15
    Executive Summary MOL EXECUTIVE TEAM, TOP MANAGEMENT AND INCENTIVE SCHEMES EXECUTIVE BOARD MANAGEMENT INCENTIVE SCHEMES Stable and Proved SHORT TERM INCENTIVES: Executive Management Maximum opportunity between 0.85x and 1x of base…
  16. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 16
    Executive Summary SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE MOL shares are listed on the Budapest, Luxembourg and Warsaw Stock Exchanges. Our depository receipts are traded on Londons International Order Book and OTC in the USA. SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE…
  17. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 17
    Executive Summary CORPORATE COMMITMENT TO SD & HSE IMPROVEMENT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK AT DJSI PERFORMANCE OF MOL GROUP MOL GROUP 100 Sustainable Development Framework: All 90 levels of the organization have a focus on…
  18. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 18
    II. UPSTREAM OPERATION Export started from Shaikan, Commercial production to start on Akri-Bijeel in November 2014 18
  19. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 19
    Upstream CONTINUE PRODUCTION INCREASE AND UTILISE ALL OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARISE FROM CURRENT LOWER OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT Around 105 MBOEPD production targeted for 2015 OVER 30% REDUCTION IN CAPEX SPENDING compared to original plan…
  20. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 20
    Upstream PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES IN 8 COUNTRIES Provide a good basis for the next years CEE total Production (Q1-Q3 2015): 103 mboepd Russia Reserves (SPE 2P 2014): 555 MMboe Reserves: 75 MMboe Croatia, Hungary Production: 7 mboepd…
  21. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 21
    Upstream 103% ORGANIC RESERVES REPLACEMENT RATIO IN 2014 With further 1160 MMboe1 exploration potential from current assets 103% ORGANIC RESERVES REPLACEMENT RATIO IN ABOVE 100% RESERVE REPLACEMENT RATIO 2014 TARGETED IN 3 YEARS…
  22. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 22
    Upstream CONTINUOUS INCREASE OF PRODUCTION IN THE FOLLOWING YEARS Targeting around 105 mboepd this year PRODUCTION OUTLOOK AROUND 105 MBOEPD TARGET (RISKED, ENTITLEMENT BASED) FOR 2015 mboepd Accelerated field (re)development 120…
  23. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 23
    Upstream M&A: BALANCE RISK AS WELL AS SEEK NEW ACCRETIVE EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES PURSUING OPPORTUNITIES TO FURTHER BALANCE ENHANCE INTERNATIONAL EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO OUR COUNTRY RISK PROFILE OMAN, PAK, RUS,…
  24. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 24
    Upstream CEE: MITIGATE THE PRODUCTION DECLINE AND MAXIMISE CASH FLOW Well optimisation and EOR projects target growing production in Croatia HUNGARY AND CROATIA (124+194 MMBOE) - PRODUCTION OUTLOOK 80 Unique know-how and well…
  25. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 25
    Upstream HUNGARY: KEEP PRODUCTION DECLINE RATE BELOW 5% Along with several efficiency improvement measures to maximise cash-flow HUNGARY (124 MMBOE) More than 75 years of E&P experience with more than 40 years of EOR/EGR…
  26. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 26
    Upstream CEE: OPTIMISATION CONTRIBUTES TO MITIGATION OF NATURAL DECLINE Field development Well performance GOALS strategy on portf. level improvement - reserve transfer ALS optimisation Maximize extraction of Fracking profitable…
  27. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 27
    Upstream KURDISTAN R.I.: INCREASE EXPECTED IN THE COMING YEARS KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ (15 MMBOE*) Shaikan: producing from 9 wells through two production facilities Exports started from Shaikan in Q1 2014 Akri-Bijell:…
  28. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 28
    Upstream SHAIKAN: ON-GOING COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION THROUGH 40MBOEPD CAPACITY PRODUCTION FACILITIES SHAIKAN HIGHLIGHTS (GROSS FIGURES) Injection 9.2 billion barrels STOIIP estimated for base case (CPR point estimate March 2014)…
  29. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 29
    Upstream NORTH SEA, UK: SIZEABLE MID-TERM PRODUCTION With 6 mboepd contribution already in 2015 NORTH SEA, UK (30 MMBOE) Successfully entered the region in 2014 established local office in Aberdeen with experienced team Majority…
  30. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 30
    Upstream EXPANDING OUR NORTH SEA PORTFOLIO ENTERING NORWAY Further balancing the country risk profile & doubling the resource potential of the Groups exploration portfolio ACQUISITION OF ITHACA PETROLEUM NORGE Acquiring 100%…
  31. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 31
    Upstream PAKISTAN: OVER 15 YEARS OF SUCCESSFUL OPERATION Continue highly successful campaign in TAL with exploration in nearby blocks HIGHLIGHTS AND KEY FOCUS AREAS 16 MMBOE 10 discoveries since 1999 in 3 different blocks…
  32. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 32
    Upstream CIS: MOVING FORWARD TOWARDS VALUE MONETISATION Successful appraisal programme closed on FED with additional 24 MMboe reserve booking RUSSIA (75 MMBOE) STILL A CORE COUNTRY WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL Portfolio restructured after…
  33. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 33
    This page was left blank intentionally 33
  34. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 34
    III. DOWNSTREAM OPERATION 34
  35. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 35
    Downstream CEE STRONGHOLD: INTEGRATED OPERATION OF COMPETITIVE ASSET BASE Deep downstream integration instead of pure refining concept guarantees extended margin capture on our landlocked markets Delivered USD 500mn Clean EBITDA…
  36. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 36
    Downstream DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION GUARANTEES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN OUR LANDLOCKED MARKETS DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION (FUELS)1 23% Other wholesale 45% Bratislava Captive wholesale Bratislava Danube 89% 79% Rijeka…
  37. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 37
    Downstream REFINING ASSET COMPLEXITY AND PROFITABILITY ABOVE PEER GROUP AVERAGE REFINERY NELSON COMPLEXITY OF THE PEER CLEAN CCS-BASED DS UNIT EBITDA2(USD/BBL) GROUP1 18 14 6.1 Mtpa Peer range 11,5 8.1 Mtpa 16 MOL-Group 12…
  38. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 38
    Downstream MID-CYCLE REFINERY MARGIN SUPPORTED BY LOWER OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT Demand growth of CEE is still well ahead of Western-Europe GROUP REFINERY MARGIN EXPECTATIONS (USD/BBL) MOTOR FUEL DEMAND CHANGE (2014/2013, %)…
  39. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 39
    Downstream DS 2016 OUTLOOK: MACRO CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE ALBEIT LOWER THAN 2015 LEVELS INTEGRATED PETROCHEMICAL MARGIN OUTLOOK GROUP REFINERY MARGIN OUTLOOK (USD/BBL) (EUR/T) 9 900 8 800 7 YTD 2015 YTD 2015 700 6 600…
  40. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 40
    Downstream SUCCESSFUL NEW DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM DELIVERY (USD 500MN) NDSP DELIVERY 2011 VS 2014 (MN USD) 160 140 874 Petchem margin Impact of IES conversion increase (+85 EUR/t) ; Non-realized NDSP 500 Brent price drop (-12…
  41. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 41
    Downstream : MAXIMISE FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION WITH FURTHER EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND ADD- ON GROWTH PROJECTS Wholesale GOALS Normalized DS CCS Retail 2017 EBITDA fuel volume fuel volume free cash flow1 USD 500mn 150%…
  42. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 42
    Downstream TARGETS USD 500MN ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT BY 2017 DOWNSTREAM FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION BY 2017 (MN USD)1 Any potential future add-on projects (e.g. Rijeka DC, 1 2 Sensitivity to SSBR, petchem projects, 1300 - 1400…
  43. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 43
    Downstream USD 350MN ASSET & MARKET EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT & USD 150MN TARGETED FROM GROWTH PROJECTS EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT GROWTH PROJECTS CONTRIBUTION 1 2 (CUMULATIVE, MN USD) (MN USD) 20% 350 Production 1. Availability & 80%…
  44. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 44
    Downstream PRODUCTION ROADMAP TARGETS UPTIME INCREASE, 1 ENERGY EFFICIENCY & YIELD IMPROVEMENT A 97% 96,0% 96% HSE 95% 94,7% Operational Availability Optimize maintenance costs and increase operational availability 94% of…
  45. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 45
    Downstream SUPPLY & SALES: GROWING CONTRIBUTION THROUGH 1 DELIVERING VOLUMETRIC INCREASE B CENTRAL REGION: SALES AND MARGIN GROWTH 1 Sales volume growth 2 Margin revenue growth TRADING BELT: 150% SALES TO NEW MARKETS / NEW…
  46. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 46
    Downstream WELL ESTABLISHED RETAIL NETWORK IN THE CEE WITH FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIAL GROUP RETAIL NETWORK RETAIL NETWORK INTEGRATION 6 FS/kbpd of ref. Capacity 5 Slovnaft 316 4 Czech Republic Slovakia Slovnaft 252 3 57 2…
  47. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 47
    Downstream CONCEPTUAL CHANGE IN RETAIL TO IMPROVE 1 FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION C VISION PILLARS RETAIL TARGETS To be customers Growing number of retail stations (network optimization first choice in fuel and M&A): and convenience…
  48. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 48
    Downstream NETWORK GROWTH AND NON-FUEL MARGIN BOOST ELEVATE RETAIL CASH FLOW CONTRIBUTION RETAIL FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION BY 2017 (MN USD) 1 30-50 100 300 250-270 205 50% 151 2013 EBITDA 2014 EBITDA NxDSP…
  49. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 49
    Downstream DEEPLY INTEGRATED PETROCHEMICAL PORTFOLIO PETCHEM VALUE CHAIN1 A TOP 10 European polymer producer and the biggest producer in CEE: 420 kT HDPE Naphtha Efficient assets & up-to-date product portfolio Gasoil LDPE 285…
  50. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 50
    DOWNSTREAM Downstream EXTENDING THE PETROCHEMICALS VALUE CHAIN TO INCREASE PROFITABILITY LDPE4 BUTADIENE SYNTHETIC RUBBER PILLARS PILLARS PILLARS New 220 ktpa capacity LDPE unit New 130 ktpa capacity Butadiene Entering into…
  51. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 51
    Downstream ADRIATIC CONNECTION OF LANDLOCKED REFINERIES IMPROVES SECURITY OF SUPPLY ADRIATIC PIPELINE ACCESS ESTABLISHED Restore the reliable operation of Friendship 1 Increased pipeline pipeline capacity 6Mtpa = SN Potentially…
  52. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 52
    IV. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW 52
  53. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 53
    Financials STRONG BALANCE SHEET HAS TOP PRIORITY CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY: organic CAPEX financed from operating cash flow 1.0X NET DEBT TO EBITDA & BELOW 20% NET GEARING (2015YE) At least USD 2.2BN CCS GROUP EBITDA IN…
  54. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 54
    Financials CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY Organic CAPEX financed from operating cash flow OPERATING CASH FLOW VS. CAPEX (USD BN) Inorganic Organic Operating CF 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0…
  55. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 55
    Financials CONTINUOUSLY STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL POSITION NET DEBT TO EBITDA (X) GEARING (%) 3,5 3.5 Limit of Net Debt to EBITDA 40 36 3,0 35 33 31 30 28 2,5 25 1,96 25 2,0 1,72 20 1,66 18 1,44 20 1,5 1,38 1,31 16 15 0,97…
  56. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 56
    Financials UP TO USD 1.5BN CAPEX PLANNED FOR 2016 UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Prediminantly Investments related to developmenet projects DS & implementations in CEE & North Sea US CAPEX Other 45% Maintenance CAPEX 55% 2016…
  57. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 57
    Financials MOL HAS SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY FOR ACQUISITIONS EUR 4.0bn total available liquidity as of Q3 2015 DRAWN VERSUS UNDRAWN FACILITIES TOTAL AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY (EUR MILLION) (EUR MILLION) 7 000 4 500 EUR 3 954m 4 000 6…
  58. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 58
    Financials SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY FOR ACQUISITIONS FROM DIVERSIFIED FUNDING SOURCES EUR 4.0bn total available liquidity as of Q3 2015 Aim for cost rationalization keeping diversification in mind MID- AND LONG-TERM COMMITTED FUNDING…
  59. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 59
    Financials AVERAGE MATURITY OF 2.24 YEARS Diversified and balanced maturity structure 2 500 2 000 2015 MOL EUR 750m bond repaid in 1 500 October EUR M 1384 1 000 110 13 6 500 1 130 880 2 750 750 452 446 0 7 37…
  60. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 60
    Financials CREDIT RATING ABOVE SOVEREIGN RATING AT FITCH, ONE NOTCH BELOW AT S&P (AFTER UPGRADE OF HUNGARY) FFO/ DEBT* HISTORICAL FOREIGN LONG TERM RATINGS 45,00% MOL, S&P Hungary, S&P MOL, Fitch Hungary, Fitch 40,00% A 35,00%…
  61. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 61
    Financials KEY ITEMS OF TAXATION HUNGARY Revenue based Crisis tax abolished from 2013 HUF 30bn negative effect p.a. in 2010-12 Profit based Robin Hood nominal tax rate is 31% only energy related part of the profit affected (70%),…
  62. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 62
    Financials EXECUTIVE INCENTIVE SCHEMES On the top level, more than two thirds of total remuneration is variable and performance driven SHORT TERM INCENTIVES Maximum opportunity between 0.85x and 1x of base salary depending on…
  63. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 63
    V. APPENDIX 63
  64. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 64
    Appendix NORTH SEA REGION - UK Entry in 2014 Operating Block W.I. Other partner(s) shareholder Dana (21%), Apache Scott 22% Nexen (42%) (10%), Maersk (5%) Rochelle 15% Nexen (41%) Endavour (44%) Broom 29% Enquest (63%) Ithaca…
  65. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 65
    Appendix OVERVIEW OF MOLS ASSETS IN KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ Entry in 2007 amongst the first ones BLOCK W.I. FULLY OPERA DILUTED TOR W.I. Akri-Bijeel 80% 51.2% MOL GKP Shaikan 20% 13.6% (75%) Khor Mor 10% 10% Pearl…
  66. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 66
    Appendix AKRI-BIJEEL 66
  67. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 67
    Appendix SHAIKAN: COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION STARTED, 1ST EXPORT CARGO DELIVERED IN JAN 2014 6.7/9.2/13.3 billion barrels STOIIP estimated for Low/Best/High cases (based on CPR estimate March 2014) 67
  68. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 68
    Appendix STRUCTURE OF OUR PRODUCTION SHARING CONTRACTS SIMPLIFIED PSA SCHEME (SHAIKAN) Oil produced Royalty Oil 10% of total Crude oil 40% Available crude Oil Cost oil Total Profit Oil Recovery oil Based on R factor…
  69. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 69
    Appendix KAZAKHSTAN 69
  70. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 70
    Appendix RUSSIA MATJUSHKINSKY BAITUGAN 70
  71. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 71
    Appendix PAKISTAN 71
  72. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 72
    Appendix INTRODUCTION OF MOL GROUP SPECIFIC REFINERY MARGINS 10 9.4 8.8 8.6 9 8.3 MOL Group refinery margin 7.7 8 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 Complex refinery margin (MOL+SN) 6.8 6.5 7 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.0 7.0 6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.5…
  73. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 73
    DISCLAIMER This presentation and the associated slides and discussion contain forward-looking statements. These statements are naturally subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Those forward-looking statements may…
  74. November 2015 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 74
    MORE INFO AT WWW.MOLGROUP.INFO CONTACT: PHONE: +36 1 464 1395 E-MAIL: INVESTORRELATIONSMOL.HU

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