AGENDA 1 Investment case 2 Q2 2016 recap 3 Downstream overview 4 Upstream overview 5 Financials and other 6 Appendix 2
INVESTMENT CASE
ON TRACK TO DELIVER WITH THE ESSENTIAL FUNDAMENTAL BUILDING BLOCKS 2015 YTD 2016 Target GROUP CLEAN USD 2.5 BN USD 1.09 BN USD 2 BN+ CCS EBITDA RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL GROUP CAPEX Cut by USD 0.2bn to USD 1.3 BN USD…
SOLID, CONSISTENT EBITDA GENERATION RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL IN A HIGHLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT* VS MOL CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD MN) 100% 800 700 85% 600 70% 500 55% 400 300 40% 200 25%…
MOL GROUP IN BRIEF INTEGRATED OIL & GAS COMPANY Upstream Downstream Gas Midstream CEE International R&M Retail Petchem CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW BUSINESS/ASSETS OVERVIEW Tickers: MOL HB; MOLB.BU Countries of operation: 33…
MID-TERM FOCUS/STRATEGY SUSTAIN STRONG EBITDA, FCF GENERATION AND DIVIDENDS STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND AMPLE LIQUIDITY HIGH QUALITY, LOW-COST ASSET BASE RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL ALLOWS MOL TO ABSORB EXTERNAL SHOCKS,…
STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY MAJORITY OF THE STRONG FCF IN 2009-2015 AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY (30.06.2016) WAS INVESTED INTO DELEVERAGING USD 3.9bn 4.0 ROBUST BALANCE SHEET TO WITHSTAND 0.7 EXTREME OIL MACRO SCENARIOS 3.0 0.1…
AT LEAST USD 2.0BN GROUP EBITDA IN 2016... RESILIENT, INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL ABSORBS EXTERNAL SHOCKS CLEAN-CCS EBITDA (USD MN) 2,970 2,739 2,524 2,304 2,477 2,183 719 2,000+ 1,926 2,407 1,854 1,594 1,167 1,650 577 Q2…
...AT CONSERVATIVE MACRO ASSUMPTIONS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS Sensitivity1 Est. Clean CCS EBITDA % of Group impact (USD mn) EBITDA 2015 KEY MACRO ASSUMPTIONS H1 5Y 2014 2015 2016E +/- 50 USD/Mcm 2016 AVG Gas…
ORGANIC CAPEX FURTHER CUT TO UP TO USD 1.1BN CAPEX VS OPERATING CASH FLOW1 (USD MN) Operating Cash flow Organic US Organic GM 2,500 Inorganic Group Organic DS Organic C&O (incl. intersegment) 2,277 2,000 580 1,599 1,560 11…
DOWNSTREAM: BENIGN MACRO REMAINS FOR NOW BUT GRADUALLY NORMALIZING FROM THE 2015 PEAKS Petchem: integrated margins remained very supportive in 2016 ytd, holding upside risk for the year Refining: margin normalisation in progress in…
OVER USD 1BN FREE-CASH FLOW DELIVERED IN 2015 ADDED USD 210MN FROM INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT ALREADY NEXT DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM (NXDSP) USD 500MN EBITDA UPLIFT DELIVERY ON TRACK OVER USD 1BN FCF FROM DS 1,650 (OVER 1.3BN EXCLUDING GROWTH…
E&P: SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING OPEX & CAPEX TO ALIGN COST BASE WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES TOTAL OPEX EX-ROYALTY PRODUCTION (MBOEPD) CAPEX (USD mn) (USD mn) Rest CEE Inorganic -60% - 80-100 105-110 104 104 Organic 1,411 98 525 26 23…
E&P: AIMING FOR SELF-FUNDING 35 USD/BBL EBITDA, CAPEX & CASH FLOWS (USD MN) Opex cut vs. the 2015 base macro impact 50 USD/bbl oil price 80-100 Potential shortfall caused by low oil price environment (35 50 USD bbl vs. 50…
INCREASING DISTRIBUTION TO SHAREHOLDERS 2% SHARE CANCELLATION IMPROVES SHAREHOLDERS TOTAL RETURN RISING TREND IN DIVIDEND STREAM AND DPS (+17% IN 2016) IMPROVING YIELDS - GROWING IMPORTANCE IN INVESTMENT STORY ONE OF THE VERY FEW…
SIMPLER SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE AS OF 31 JULY 2016 DANA GAS SOLD ITS STAKE IN 2015 INCREASING FREE FLOAT THE 6M SHARES FROM MAGNOLIA MIGRATED TO TREASURY SHARES IN MARCH 2016 2016 AGM DECIDED ON 2% SHARE CANCELLATION MOL Investment…
SD & HSE AWARENESS AND COMMITMENT NEW SUSTAINABILITY PLAN 2020 GOVERNANCE SD PLAN 2020 Sustainable Development Committee of MAIN OBJECTIVE: achieve and maintain an Board of Directors since 2006; Group CEO internationally acknowledged…
Q2 2016 RECAP On track to deliver 2016 targets
FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION CONTINUED IN Q2 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Strong Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 160bn (USD 577mn) in Q2 2016, bringing H1 EBITDA to HUF 305bn (USD 1.09bn). MOL is confident it will comfortably meet its USD 2bn+ annual…
DS: ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER Q2 16 CCS EBITDA YOY INTEGRATED DOWNSTREAM VALUE CHAIN SHOWS ITS STRENGTH CLEAN CCS EBITDA YoY (HUF bn) COMMENTS 138 127 Contracting motor fuel crack 116 21 Retail 14 9 7 spreads affected refining 32…
E&P: VOLUMES, COST CONTROL REMAIN CRUCIAL TO MITIGATE/OFFSET NEGATIVE PRICE IMPACT US EBITDA QoQ (HUF bn) COMMENTS 3 49 1 Higher oil prices partly 1 1 offset by lower gas prices 6 40 (primarily in Croatia) 42 Lower…
PRODUCTION REMAINED STRONG IN Q2 ON TRACK TO MEET UPPER END OF 105-110 MBOEPD GUIDANCE RANGE FOR FY 2016 QUARTERLY PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY COMMENTS Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016 (-1%) +7% -1% 112.1 112.0 UK: -1.9 mboepd QoQ on 110.8 Cladhan…
NEW UPSTREAM PROGRAM ON TRACK SELF FUNDING AND VALUE CREATING BUSINESS AT 45-50 USD/BBL OIL PRICE 2016 YTD TARGET Material CEE onshore growth PRODUCTION on Production Optimization Mboepd 105-110 111.5 Higher UK volumes YoY…
DOWNSTREAM OVERVIEW
CEE STRONGHOLD RECORD HIGH RESULTS DELIVERED IN 2015 DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION ENSURES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN LANDLOCKED MARKETS PETCHEM & RETAIL ACCOUNTED FOR 50% OF HISTORIC HIGH USD 1.65BN CLEAN CCS DS EBITDA PEAK MARGINS…
OVER USD 1BN FREE-CASH FLOW DELIVERED IN 2015 ADDED USD 210MN FROM INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT ALREADY NEXT DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM (NXDSP) USD 500MN EBITDA UPLIFT DELIVERY ON TRACK OVER USD 1BN FCF FROM DS 1,650 (OVER 1.3BN EXCLUDING GROWTH…
DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION GUARANTEES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN LANDLOCKED MARKETS DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION (FUELS)(1) 23% CRUDE INTAKE: Russian: 45% 75% Seaborne: 18% 89% Own Refining 79% production: 32% 7% captive Retail…
DS PERFORMANCE WELL ABOVE PEERS IN 2015 KEY REFINING ASSETS IN TOP QUARTILE REFINERY NELSON COMPLEXITY OF CLEAN CCS-BASED DS UNIT EBITDA2 THE PEER GROUP1 (USD/BBL) 16 19 Average 6.1 Mtpa Average 14 17 8.1 Mtpa MOL Group 11.5 15…
PRODUCTION ROADMAP 1 TARGETS UPTIME INCREASE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY & YIELD IMPROVEMENT A 97% 96.0% 96% HSE 95% 94.7% Operational Availability Optimize maintenance costs and increase operational 94% availability of MOL Group…
GROWING CONTRIBUTION THROUGH VOLUME INCREASE 1 B CENTRAL REGION: SALES AND MARGIN GROWTH 1 Sales volume growth 2 Margin revenue growth TRADING BELT: 150% SALES TO NEW MARKETS / NEW CUSTOMERS OWN PRODUCED FUELS 3 Stabilize…
CONCEPTUAL CHANGE IN RETAIL 1 TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION C GROUP RETAIL NETWORK RETAIL TARGETS Growing number of retail stations (network optimization and M&A): 2014 1 750 312 of fuel stations Slovnaft Czech…
BOOST RETAIL CASH FLOW CONTRIBUTION C 1 2 THROUGH NETWORK GROWTH AND NON-FUEL MARGIN GROWTH RETAIL FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION BY 2017 (MN USD)1 EBITDA / FS 119 123 (th USD) - 20% local currency weakening vs USD - partly off-set…
DEEPLY INTEGRATED PETROCHEMICAL PORTFOLIO PETCHEM VALUE CHAIN PP CAPACITIES IN EUROPE (2015 KTPA) Capacity LyondellBasell 2390 420 kT HDPE Borealis 1885 Total Petrochemicals 1120 Naphtha SABIC Europe 950 Gasoil INEOS 755 LPG…
EXTENDING THE PETROCHEMICALS VALUE CHAIN 2 TO INCREASE PROFITABILITY LDPE4 Butadiene Synthetic rubber New 220 ktpa capacity LDPE New 130 ktpa capacity Entering the synthetic unit replaces 3 old ones at Butadiene Extraction Unit…
15% SEABORNE CRUDE SUPPLY TO DANUBE REFINERY IN 2015 FIRST CARGO PROCESSED IN BRATISLAVA IN 2016 ADRIATIC PIPELINE ACCESS ESTABLISHED Increased The reliable operation of pipeline capacity: Friendship 1 pipeline restored 6Mtpa = SN…
UPSTREAM OVERVIEW
AIMING FOR VALUE CREATION…
PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES IN 8 COUNTRIES RUSSIA Reserves: 72 MMboe CEE TOTAL Production: 7 mboepd Croatia, Hungary KAZAKHSTAN Reserves: 288 MMboe Reserves: 60 MMboe Production: 81 mboepd PAKISTAN o/w CEE offshore Reserves: 11 MMboe…
REVISED PORFOLIO WITH 105-110 MBOEPD IN 2016-17 GROWING TO 110-115 MBOEPD IN 2018 MID-TERM PRODUCTION PROFILE STABLE CONTRIBUTION FROM HIGH- (MBOEPD) MARGIN CEE OPERATIONS 120 110-115 Positive cash generation even at 105-110…
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OPEX AND CAPEX TO ALIGN COST BASE WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES TOTAL OPEX EX-ROYALTY (USD mn) CAPEX (USD mn) inorganic - 80-100 1,410 organic 520 -15-30% 830 688 119 0 500-600 890 688 711 2015 2016…
EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO EXPANDED IN NORWAY EXPLORATION POTENTIAL (RRP1) MMBOE 130 160 95 1,220 835 CEE CIS WEU (North Sea) MEA Exploration portfolio and resource base were enlarged in 2015 by additions in Norway and…
CEE: POSITIVE CASH FLOWS, RISING ON-SHORE PRODUCTION ON THE BACK OF COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION PROGRAM HUNGARY AND CROATIA (117+172 MMBOE) Hungary CRO onshore CRO offshore Employed a systematic approach to identify…
CEE PROD. OPTIMIZATION BRINGS FURTHER SUCCESS CEE OIL PRODUCTION FURTHER UP BY 3% QOQ, +20% YOY History of onshore production Total onshore hydrocarbon Oil production (mbpd) since the acquisition of INA production (mboepd) Crude oil…
CEE: COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION WELL PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT ALS optimisation GOALS Field development Fracking strategy on portfolio Maximize extraction of level - reserve transfer Well workovers profitable barrels…
PAKISTAN: 15+ YEARS OF SUCCESSFUL OPERATION HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL TAL DEVELOPMENT WITH EXPLORATION IN NEARBY BLOCKS HIGHLIGHTS AND KEY FOCUS AREAS (11 MMBOE) Operator of the TAL block 30 km from the border of Afghanistan, where…
KRI - SHAIKAN: WORLD CLASS OIL DISCOVERY DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON REGULARITY AND AMOUNT OF PAYMENTS SHAIKAN HIGHLIGHTS (GROSS FIGURES) Ongoing commercial production from two facilities with a nameplate capacity of 40 mboepd Stabilized…
CIS: FIELD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-COST BAITUGAN WITH STABLE CASH FLOW GENERATION EVEN AT CURRENT OIL PRICES RUSSIA - Baitugan (72 MMBOE) A shallow, compact field with developed infrastructure ensures low unit costs thus stable cash-flow…
NORTH SEA, UK: VISIBLE CONTRIBUTION IN 2016 WITH AN ONGOING COMPREHENSIVE VALUE OPTIMIZATION PLAN NORTH SEA, UK (26 MMBOE) First oil achieved on Cladhan in Dec 2015 Drilling programme commenced successfully on Scott Scolty &…
NORWAY: A NEW EXPLORATION HUB WITH 750 MMBOE UNRISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES INCREASING FOOTHOLD IN THE NCS Entered Norway in 2015, acquiring 100% ownership in Ithaca Petroleum Norge a pre- qualified operator Further extended…
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
OPERATING CASH FLOWS COVER ORGANIC CAPEX CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CAPEX VS OPERATING CASH FLOW Operating Cash flow Organic US Organic GM Inorganic Group Organic DS Organic C&O (incl. intersegment) 2,500 2,277…
STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY DRAWN VERSUS UNDRAWN FACILITIES AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY (30.06.2016) (30.06.2016) USD 3.9bn Medium term loan Long term loan 4.0 3.5 0.7 Senior Unsecured Bonds Outstanding short term loans 3.0 0.1 7 000…
SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY FOR ACQUISITIONS FROM DIVERSIFIED FUNDING SOURCES AVERAGE MATURITY OF 3.39 YEARS1 2,500 Reported cash & cash equivalents Medium term loan Undrawn facilities 2,000 Senior Unsecured Bonds Long term loan…
CREDIT RATING PROFILE EQUAL RATING TO SOVEREIGN AT FITCH, ONE NOTCH BELOW AT S&P HISTORICAL FOREIGN LONG TERM FFO/DEBT RATINGS 60% MOL, S&P Hungary, S&P MOL Fitch Hungary, Fitch modest A+ 50% A A- 40% intermediate BBB+ BBB…
KEY ITEMS OF TAXATION HUNGARY CIT TAX RATE IS 19% PROFIT BASED ROBIN HOOD WITH AN IMPLIED TAX RATE OF 22% Only energy related part of the profit affected (70%), nameplate tax rate is 31% Only the Hungarian operation of certain…
EXECUTIVE INCENTIVE SCHEMES ON THE TOP LEVEL, MORE THAN TWO THIRD OF TOTAL REMUNERATION IS VARIABLE AND PERFORMANCE DRIVEN SHORT TERM INCENTIVES Maximum opportunity between 0.85x and 1x of base salary depending on executive Pay-out…
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APPENDIX
NORTH SEA REGION UK & NORWAY North Sea (UK) Entry in 2014 Norway Entry in 2015 Operating Other Blocks W.I. shareholder partner(s) Dana (21%), Nexen Scott 22% Apache (10%), (42%) Maersk (5%) Nexen Endavour Rochelle 15%…
MOLS ASSETS IN KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ ENTRY IN 2007 AMONGST THE FIRST ONES Block W.I. Operator Shaikan 20% GKP (75%) Khor Mor 10% Pearl Chemchemal 10% Petroleum 66