AGENDA 1 Investment case 2 Q4 2015 recap 3 Downstream overview 4 Upstream overview 5 Financials and other 6 Appendix 3
INVESTMENT CASE
FUNDAMENTAL BUILDING BLOCKS IN PLACE KEY TARGETS MET OR EXCEEDED 2015 TARGET 2015 DELIVERY RESILIENT USD 2.2BN USD GROUP CLEAN CCS EBITDA INTEGRATED (upgraded) 2.5BN BUSINESS MODEL GROUP CAPEX (ORGANIC) USD 1.3BN USD 1.26BN…
MOL GROUP IN BRIEF INTEGRATED OIL & GAS COMPANY Upstream Downstream Gas Midstream CEE International R&M Retail Petchem CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW BUSINESS/ASSETS OVERVIEW Tickers: MOL HB; MOLB.BU Countries of operation: 33…
MID-TERM FOCUS/STRATEGY SUSTAIN STRONG EBITDA, FCF GENERATION AND DIVIDENDS STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND AMPLE LIQUIDITY RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL ALLOWED MOL TO ABSORB EXTERNAL SHOCKS, GENERATE STRONG CASH FLOWS (AND FCF)…
STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY MAJORITY OF THE STRONG FCF IN 2009- AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY 2015 WAS INVESTED INTO DELEVERAGING EUR 3.4bn 3.5 ROBUST BALANCE SHEET TO WITHSTAND 3.0 0.4 0.2 EXTREME OIL MACRO SCENARIOS 2.5 EUR…
AT LEAST USD 2.0BN GROUP EBITDA IN 2016... RESILIENT, INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL TO ABSORB EXTERNAL SHOCKS CLEAN-CCS EBITDA (USD MN) 2 970 2 739 2 524 2 304 2 477 2 163 719 22000 000+ 1 926 2 407 1 854 1 594 1 167 1 650…
...AT CONSERVATIVE MACRO ASSUMPTIONS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS Sensitivity1 Est. Clean CCS EBITDA % of Group impact (USD mn) EBITDA 2015 KEY MACRO ASSUMPTIONS +/- 50 USD/Mcm 5Y 10 0.5% 2014 2015 2016E Gas…
ORGANIC CAPEX TRIMMED TO UP TO USD 1.3BN CAPEX VS OPERATING CASH FLOW (USD MN) Operating Cash flow Inorganic Group Organic US Organic DS Organic GM Organic C&O (incl. intersegment) 2,500 2 268 2,000 579 1 599 1 572 11 1,500 1…
DOWNSTREAM: BENIGN MACRO LIKELY TO REMAIN BUT NOT AS SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN 2015 OUTSTANDING 2015 MACRO UNLIKELY TO REPEAT, YET ABOVE MID-CYCLE REFINING AND PETCHEM MARGINS MAY SUSTAIN IN 2016-18 ( USD 35-50/BBL OIL PRICES) Key risk:…
OVER USD 1BN FREE-CASH FLOW DELIVERED IN 2015 ADDED USD 210MN FROM INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT ALREADY NEXT DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM (NXDSP) USD 500MN EBITDA UPLIFT DELIVERY ON TRACK OVER USD 1BN FCF FROM DS 1,650 (OVER 1.3BN EXCLUDING GROWTH…
E&P: SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING OPEX & CAPEX TO ALIGN COST BASE WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES TOTAL OPEX EX-ROYALTY PRODUCTION (MBOEPD) CAPEX (USD mn) (USD mn) rest CEE inorganic -60% - 80-100 105-110 104 104 organic 1,410 98 520 26 23…
E&P: AIMING FOR SELF-FUNDING 35 USD/BBL EBITDA, CAPEX & CASH FLOWS (USD MN) Opex cut vs. the 2015 base macro impact 50 USD/bbl oil price 80-100 Potential shortfall caused by low oil price environment (35 50 USD bbl vs. 50…
INCREASING DISTRIBUTION TO SHAREHOLDERS RISING TREND IN DIVIDEND STREAM AND DPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IMPROVING YIELDS - GROWING IMPORTANCE IN INVESTMENT STORY ONE OF THE VERY FEW INTEGRATEDS WHO CAN INCREASE DPS IN 2015.... ...AND NOT ONLY…
SIMPLER SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2015, BUT ADJUSTED FOR THE MAGNOLIA DECISION DANA GAS SOLD ITS STAKE INCREASING FREE FLOAT THE 6M SHARES AT MAGNOLIA WILL MIGRATE TO TREASURY SHARES IN MAR CH 2016 MOL Investment…
SD & HSE AWARENESS AND COMMITMENT NEW SUSTAINABILITY PLAN 2020 GOVERNANCE SD PLAN 2020 Sustainable Development Committee of MAIN OBJECTIVE: achieve and maintain an Board of Directors since 2006; Group CEO internationally acknowledged…
Q4 2015 RECAP Strong underlying profitability in Q4
INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL WORKED IN Q4 TOO WITH BEST EVER Q4 DELIVERY IN DOWNSTREAM KEY GROUP FINANCIALS (HUF BN) SEGMENT CLEAN CCS EBITDA (HUF BN) +2% -40% +1% -26% +5% -23% +494% -551% 258 199 199 195 147 147 152 155 12 154 91…
DOWNSTREAM DRIVES ANNUAL EBITDA GROWTH AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL RETREAT QOQ GROUP EBITDA QoQ (HUF bn) COMMENTS 2,6 Downstream 198.7 Seasonally weaker in Q4 37,6 Yet brought in its strongest-ever Q4 EBITDA... 6,6 8,3 157.5 hence…
STRONG UNDERLYING PROFITABILITY IN Q4 WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL PROGRESS ACROSS SEGMENTS FINANCIAL Strong Clean CCS EBITDA delivery of HUF 147bn (USD 515m) in Q4 2015 MOL significantly beat its USD 2.2bn 2015 Clean CCS EBITDA target (FY…
UPSTREAM IMPAIRMENTS AND WRITE-OFFS OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS AND SOME EVENT-DRIVEN ONE-OFFS SUMMARY OF IMPAIRMENTS (USD mn) UNITS AFFECTED BOOK VALUE BEFORE TEST IMPAIRED AMOUNT BOOK VALUE AFTER TEST* Akri Bijeel 453 453 0 Cameroon 89…
E&P: HIGHER VOLUMES OFFSET PRICE IMPACT FX, LOWER EXPLORATION EXPENSES HELP US EBITDA QoQ (HUF bn) COMMENTS 0 44 Higher volumes 43 1 (Hungary, UK) offset 7 7 1 lower prices Higher than usual DD&A ex-one-offs: 1) well write-…
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DOWNSTREAM OVERVIEW
CEE STRONGHOLD RECORD HIGH RESULTS DELIVERED IN 2015 DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION ENSURES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN LANDLOCKED MARKETS PETCHEM & RETAIL ACCOUNTED FOR 50% OF HISTORIC HIGH USD 1.65BN CLEAN CCS DS EBITDA PEAK MARGINS…
OVER USD 1BN FREE-CASH FLOW DELIVERED IN 2015 ADDED USD 210MN FROM INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT ALREADY NEXT DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM (NXDSP) USD 500MN EBITDA UPLIFT DELIVERY ON TRACK OVER USD 1BN FCF FROM DS 1,650 (OVER 1.3BN EXCLUDING GROWTH…
DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION GUARANTEES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN LANDLOCKED MARKETS DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION (FUELS)(1) 23% 45% 89% Refining 79% 32% captive Retail 39% market2 own 11% market Petrochem KEY STRENGTHS…
DS PERFORMANCE WELL ABOVE PEERS IN 2015 KEY REFINING ASSETS IN TOP QUARTILE REFINERY NELSON COMPLEXITY OF CLEAN CCS-BASED DS UNIT EBITDA2 THE PEER GROUP1 (USD/BBL) 16 20,0 6.1 Mtpa Average 18,0 Average 14 8.1 Mtpa 16,0 MOL Group…
PRODUCTION ROADMAP 1 TARGETS UPTIME INCREASE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY & YIELD IMPROVEMENT A 97% 96,0% 96% HSE 95% 94,7% Operational Availability Optimize maintenance costs and increase operational 94% availability of MOL Group…
GROWING CONTRIBUTION THROUGH VOLUME INCREASE 1 B CENTRAL REGION: SALES AND MARGIN GROWTH 1 Sales volume growth 2 Margin revenue growth TRADING BELT: 150% SALES TO NEW MARKETS / NEW CUSTOMERS OWN PRODUCED FUELS 3 Stabilize…
CONCEPTUAL CHANGE IN RETAIL 1 TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION C GROUP RETAIL NETWORK RETAIL TARGETS Growing number of retail stations (network optimization and M&A): 316 2014 1 750 of fuel stations Slovnaft Czech…
BOOST RETAIL CASH FLOW CONTRIBUTION C 1 2 THROUGH NETWORK GROWTH AND NON-FUEL MARGIN GROWTH RETAIL FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION BY 2017 (MN USD)1 EBITDA / FS 119 123 (th USD) - 20% local currency weakening vs USD - partly off-set…
DEEPLY INTEGRATED PETROCHEMICAL PORTFOLIO PETCHEM VALUE CHAIN PP CAPACITIES IN EUROPE (2015 KTPA) 420 kT HDPE LyondellBasell 2390 Borealis 1885 Total Petrochemicals 1120 Naphtha Gasoil SABIC Europe 950 285 kT LDPE INEOS 755…
EXTENDING THE PETROCHEMICALS VALUE CHAIN 2 TO INCREASE PROFITABILITY LDPE4 Butadiene Synthetic rubber New 220 ktpa capacity New 130 ktpa capacity Entering the synthetic LDPE unit replaces 3 old Butadiene Extraction Unit rubber…
15% SEABORNE CRUDE SUPPLY TO DANUBE REFINERY IN 2015 FIRST CARGO TO BE PROCESSED IN BRATISLAVA IN 2016 ADRIATIC PIPELINE ACCESS ESTABLISHED The reliable operation of Increased Friendship 1 pipeline restored pipeline capacity: 6Mtpa…
UPSTREAM OVERVIEW
AIMING FOR SELF-FUNDING OPERATIONS EVEN AT USD 35/BBL OIL PRICE REVISED PORTFOLIO TO DELIVER 105-110 MBOEPD IN 2016-17 AND 110-115 MBOEPD IN 2018 SUCCESSFULLY REVERSED PRODUCTION DECLINE VIA PRODUCTION INTENSIFICATION IN…
PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES IN 8 COUNTRIES RUSSIA Reserves: 72 MMboe CEE TOTAL Production: 7 mboepd Croatia, Hungary KAZAKHSTAN Reserves: 288 MMboe Reserves: 60 MMboe Production: 79 mboepd PAKISTAN o/w CEE offshore Reserves: 11 MMboe…
REVISED PORFOLIO WITH 105-110 MBOEPD IN 2016-17 110-115 MBOEPD IN 2018 MID-TERM PRODUCTION PROFILE STABLE CONTRIBUTION FROM (MBOEPD) HIGH-MARGIN CEE OPERATIONS 120 110-115 Positive cash generation even 105-110 105-110 104 at USD…
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OPEX AND CAPEX TO ALIGN COST BASE WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES TOTAL OPEX EX-ROYALTY (USD mn) CAPEX (USD mn) inorganic - 80-100 1,410 organic 520 -15-30% 830 688 119 0 500-600 890 688 711 2015 2016…
EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO EXPANDED IN NORWAY EXPLORATION POTENTIAL (RRP1) MMBOE 130 160 95 1,220 835 CEE CIS WEU (North Sea) MEA Exploration portfolio and resource base were enlarged in 2015 by additions in Norway and…
CEE: POSITIVE CASH FLOWS, RISING ON-SHORE PRODUCTION ON THE BACK OF COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION PROGRAM Hungary CRO offshore HUNGARY AND CROATIA (117+172 MMBOE) CRO onshore Employed a systematic approach to identify 100 0%…
CEE: PRODUCTION DECLINE REVERSED IN 2015 WITH CEE OIL PRODUCTION UP BY 12% YEAR ON YEAR HISTORY OF PRODCUTION TOTAL HYDROCARBON OIL PRODUCTION SINCE ACQUISITION OF INA PRODUCTION (MBOEPD) (MBPD) Crude oil Total 60 -4% -5% +5% 44…
CEE: COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION WELL PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT ALS optimisation GOALS Field development Fracking strategy on Maximize extraction of portfolio level - Well workovers profitable barrels reserve transfer…
PAKISTAN: 15+ YEARS OF SUCCESSFUL OPERATION HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL TAL DEVELOPMENT WITH EXPLORATION IN NEARBY BLOCKS HIGHLIGHTS AND KEY FOCUS AREAS (16 MMBOE) Operator of the TAL block 30 km from the border of Afghanistan, currently…
KRI - SHAIKAN: WORLD CLASS OIL DISCOVERY DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON REGULARITY AND AMOUNT OF PAYMENTS SHAIKAN HIGHLIGHTS (GROSS FIGURES) World class oil discovery with 639 MMboe of 2P reserves identified by the operator - commissioned…
CIS: FIELD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-COST BAITUGAN WITH STABLE CASH FLOW GENERATION EVEN AT CURRENT OIL PRICES RUSSIA - Baitugan (72 MMBOE) A shallow, compact field with developed infrastructure ensures low unit costs thus stable cash-flow…
NORTH SEA, UK: VISIBLE CONTRIBUTION IN 2016 WITH AN ONGOING COMPREHENSIVE VALUE OPTIMIZATION PLAN NORTH SEA, UK (26 MMBOE) First oil achieved on Cladhan in Dec 2015 Drilling programme commenced successfully on Scott Scolty &…
NORWAY: A NEW EXPLORATION HUB WITH 750 MMBOE UNRISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES INCREASING FOOTHOLD IN THE NCS Entered Norway in 2015, acquiring 100% ownership in Ithaca Petroleum Norge a pre-qualified operator Further extended…
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
OPERATING CASH FLOWS COVER ORGANIC CAPEX CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CAPEX VS OPERATING CASH FLOW Operating Cash flow Organic US Organic GM Inorganic Group Organic DS Organic C&O (incl. intersegment) 2 500 2 268…
STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY DRAWN VERSUS UNDRAWN FACILITIES AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY (EUR MILLION) Total Outstanding Undrawn facilities 3.5 EUR 3.4bn Medium term loans Long term loans (multilaterals) Bonds Hybrid 0.4 6 000…
SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY FOR ACQUISITIONS FROM DIVERSIFIED FUNDING SOURCES AVERAGE MATURITY OF 2.62 YEARS 2500 Senior Unsecured Bonds Reported cash&cash equivalents Long term loan (multilaterals) 2000 Medium term loan Undrawn…
CREDIT RATING PROFILE ABOVE SOVEREIGN RATING AT FITCH, ONE NOTCH BELOW AT S&P HISTORICAL FOREIGN LONG TERM FFO/DEBT RATINGS 45% MOL, S&P Hungary, S&P MOL, Fitch Hungary, Fitch 40% A intermediate 35% A- 30% BBB+ 25% significant…
KEY ITEMS OF TAXATION HUNGARY CIT TAX RATE IS 19% PROFIT BASED ROBIN HOOD WITH AN IMPLIED TAX RATE OF 22% only energy related part of the profit affected (70%), nameplate tax rate is 31% only the Hungarian operation of certain…
EXECUTIVE INCENTIVE SCHEMES ON THE TOP LEVEL, MORE THAN TWO THIRDS OF TOTAL REMUNERATION IS VARIABLE AND PERFORMANCE DRIVEN SHORT TERM INCENTIVES Maximum opportunity between 0.85x and 1x of base salary depending on executive Pay-out…
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APPENDIX
NORTH SEA REGION UK & NORWAY North Sea (UK) Entry in 2014 Norway Entry in 2015 Operating Other Blocks W.I. shareholder partner(s) Dana (21%), Nexen Scott 22% Apache (10%), (42%) Maersk (5%) Nexen Endavour Rochelle 15%…
MOLS ASSETS IN KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ ENTRY IN 2007 AMONGST THE FIRST ONES Block W.I. Fully diluted W.I. Operator S haikan: commercial p r oduction star ted, 1st ex p ort cargo in jan 2 014 Shaikan 20% 13.6% GKP (75%)…
STRUCTURE OF PRODUCTION SHARING CONTRACT SIMPLIFIED PSA SCHEME (SHAIKAN) Oil produced Royalty Oil 10% of total Crude oil 40% Available crude Oil Cost oil Total Profit Oil Recovery oil Based on R factor (Op. expl. and…
NEW RETAIL CONCEPT Check out MOL Groups new retail concept: 72
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DISCLAIMER This presentation and the associated slides and discussion contain forward -looking statements. These statements are naturally subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Those forward -looking statements may…
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