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May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group

Mol Group · May 31, 2016 · 69 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 1
    MOL GROUP INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2016
  2. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 2
    AGENDA 1 Investment case 2 Q1 2016 recap 3 Downstream overview 4 Upstream overview 5 Financials and other 6 Appendix 2
  3. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 3
    ON TRACK TO DELIVER WITH THE ESSENTIAL FUNDAMENTAL BUILDING BLOCKS 2015 YTD 2016 Target GROUP CLEAN USD 2.5 BN USD 510 MN USD 2 BN+ CCS EBITDA RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL GROUP CAPEX USD 1.3 BN USD 185 MN UP TO USD 1.3…
  4. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 4
    MOL GROUP IN BRIEF INTEGRATED OIL & GAS COMPANY Upstream Downstream Gas Midstream CEE International R&M Retail Petchem CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW BUSINESS/ASSETS OVERVIEW Tickers: MOL HB; MOLB.BU Countries of operation: 33…
  5. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 5
    MID-TERM FOCUS/STRATEGY SUSTAIN STRONG EBITDA, FCF GENERATION AND DIVIDENDS STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND AMPLE LIQUIDITY HIGH QUALITY, LOW-COST ASSET BASE RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL ALLOWS MOL TO ABSORB EXTERNAL SHOCKS,…
  6. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 6
    STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY MAJORITY OF THE STRONG FCF IN 2009-2015 AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY (31.03.2016)* WAS INVESTED INTO DELEVERAGING EUR 3.5bn 3.5 ROBUST BALANCE SHEET TO WITHSTAND 3.0 0.8 EXTREME OIL MACRO SCENARIOS 2.5 0.3…
  7. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 7
    AT LEAST USD 2.0BN GROUP EBITDA IN 2016... RESILIENT, INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL TO ABSORB EXTERNAL SHOCKS CLEAN-CCS EBITDA (USD MN) 2,970 2,739 2,524 2,304 2,477 2,183 719 2,000+ 1,926 2,407 1,854 1,594 1,167 1,650 682…
  8. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 8
    ...AT CONSERVATIVE MACRO ASSUMPTIONS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS Sensitivity1 Est. Clean CCS EBITDA % of Group impact (USD mn) EBITDA 2015 KEY MACRO ASSUMPTIONS Q1 5Y 2014 2015 2016E +/- 50 USD/Mcm 2016 AVG Gas…
  9. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 9
    ORGANIC CAPEX TRIMMED TO UP TO USD 1.3BN CAPEX VS OPERATING CASH FLOW1 (USD MN) Operating Cash flow Organic US Organic GM 2,500 Inorganic Group Organic DS Organic C&O (incl. intersegment) 2,277 2,000 580 1,599 1,560 11 1,500…
  10. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 10
    SUSTAINABLE FCF GENERATION SOURCES AND APPLICATIONS OF CASH (USD MN) 180 984 -549 284 830 666 521 407 579 197 196 350 310 205 270 200 11 421 2 970 350 456 420 302 2 739 132 2 524 2 477 164 2 308 2 183 2 000 1 588 1…
  11. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 11
    DOWNSTREAM: BENIGN MACRO LIKELY TO REMAIN BUT NOT AS SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN 2015 Petchem: integrated margins remained very supportive in 2016 ytd, holding upside risk for the year Refining: diesel cracks depressed ytd, but mostly…
  12. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 12
    OVER USD 1BN FREE-CASH FLOW DELIVERED IN 2015 ADDED USD 210MN FROM INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT ALREADY NEXT DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM (NXDSP) USD 500MN EBITDA UPLIFT DELIVERY ON TRACK OVER USD 1BN FCF FROM DS 1,650 (OVER 1.3BN EXCLUDING GROWTH…
  13. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 13
    E&P: SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING OPEX & CAPEX TO ALIGN COST BASE WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES TOTAL OPEX EX-ROYALTY PRODUCTION (MBOEPD) CAPEX (USD mn) (USD mn) Rest CEE Inorganic -60% - 80-100 105-110 104 104 Organic 1,411 98 525 26 23…
  14. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 14
    E&P: AIMING FOR SELF-FUNDING 35 USD/BBL EBITDA, CAPEX & CASH FLOWS (USD MN) Opex cut vs. the 2015 base macro impact 50 USD/bbl oil price 80-100 Potential shortfall caused by low oil price environment (35 50 USD bbl vs. 50…
  15. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 15
    INCREASING DISTRIBUTION TO SHAREHOLDERS 2% SHARE CANCELLATION IMPROVES SHAREHOLDERS TOTAL RETURN RISING TREND IN DIVIDEND STREAM AND DPS (+17% IN 2016) IMPROVING YIELDS - GROWING IMPORTANCE IN INVESTMENT STORY ONE OF THE VERY FEW…
  16. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 16
    SIMPLER SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE AS OF 31 MARCH 2016 DANA GAS SOLD ITS STAKE IN 2015 INCREASING FREE FLOAT THE 6M SHARES FROM MAGNOLIA MIGRATED TO TREASURY SHARES IN MARCH 2016 2016 AGM DECIDED ON 2% SHARE CANCELLATION MOL…
  17. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 17
    SD & HSE AWARENESS AND COMMITMENT NEW SUSTAINABILITY PLAN 2020 GOVERNANCE SD PLAN 2020 Sustainable Development Committee of MAIN OBJECTIVE: achieve and maintain an Board of Directors since 2006; Group CEO internationally acknowledged…
  18. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 18
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  19. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 19
    Q1 2016 RECAP On track to deliver 2016 targets
  20. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 20
    SOLID EBITDA GENERATION IN Q1 ON TRACK TO DELIVER 2016 TARGETS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Robust Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 144bn (USD 510m) in Q1 2016, implying that MOL is well on track to deliver on its USD 2bn+ annual guidance Downstream…
  21. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 21
    INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL CONTINUES TO WORK RECORD-HIGH DOWNSTREAM EBITDA OFFSETS UPSTREAM PROFIT DECLINE KEY GROUP FINANCIALS (HUF bn) SEGMENT CLEAN CCS EBITDA (HUF bn) +31% -56% -8% -5% +164% -8% -5% 157 152 144 177 195 77 59 78…
  22. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 22
    DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OFFSET WEAKER E&P SEASONALITY AFFECTS PROFITABILITY QOQ GROUP EBITDA QoQ (HUF bn) COMMENTS 151.5 1.9 Downstream Seasonally weaker in Q1 144.3 Yet once again a record-high 12.8 1.5 contribution for this period…
  23. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 23
    DOWNSTREAM: EBITDA GREW BY 22% IN Q1 YOY ON STRONGER PETCHEMS AND RETAIL CLEAN CCS EBITDA YoY (HUF bn) COMMENTS 3 93 Substantially higher 11 2 22 13 15 petchem margin (+191 EUR/t 76 78 1 IM margin) 10 Higher petchem and…
  24. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 24
    E&P: VOLUMES, COSTS PARTLY OFFSET PRICE IMPACT US EBITDA QoQ (HUF bn) COMMENTS 44 6 42 Higher volumes (Hungary, UK) 12 Lower exploration 33 3 expenses on reduced 1 2 activty 9 Lower direct lifting costs EBITDA ex- Prices…
  25. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 25
    CEE, UK DRIVE VOLUMES GROWTH CEE PRODUCTION OPTIMISATION IN FOCUS QUARTERLY PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY COMMENTS +9% +4% Q1 2016 vs. Q4 2015 (+3.5%) 112.1 112.0 Hungary: +2 mboepd QoQ on 108.3 3.3 production optimization Other 103.5…
  26. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 26
    ON TRACK TOWARDS SELF-FUNDING OPERATIONS AT USD 35/BBL OIL PRICE - NEW UPSTREAM PROGRAM IN PROGRESS 2016 YTD TARGET Visible CEE onshore PRODUCTION growth on production Mboepd 105-110 112 optimization Higher UK volumes USD…
  27. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 27
    DOWNSTREAM OVERVIEW
  28. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 28
    CEE STRONGHOLD RECORD HIGH RESULTS DELIVERED IN 2015 DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION ENSURES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN LANDLOCKED MARKETS PETCHEM & RETAIL ACCOUNTED FOR 50% OF HISTORIC HIGH USD 1.65BN CLEAN CCS DS EBITDA PEAK MARGINS…
  29. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 29
    OVER USD 1BN FREE-CASH FLOW DELIVERED IN 2015 ADDED USD 210MN FROM INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT ALREADY NEXT DOWNSTREAM PROGRAM (NXDSP) USD 500MN EBITDA UPLIFT DELIVERY ON TRACK OVER USD 1BN FCF FROM DS 1,650 (OVER 1.3BN EXCLUDING GROWTH…
  30. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 30
    DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION GUARANTEES EXTENDED MARGIN CAPTURE IN LANDLOCKED MARKETS DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION (FUELS)(1) 23% CRUDE INTAKE: Russian: 45% 75% Seaborne: 18% 89% Own Refining 79% production: 32% 7% captive Retail…
  31. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 31
    DS PERFORMANCE WELL ABOVE PEERS IN 2015 KEY REFINING ASSETS IN TOP QUARTILE REFINERY NELSON COMPLEXITY OF CLEAN CCS-BASED DS UNIT EBITDA2 THE PEER GROUP1 (USD/BBL) 16 20,0 Average 6.1 Mtpa 18,0 Average 14 MOL Group 8.1 Mtpa 16,0…
  32. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 32
    KEY ENABLERS OF DELIVERING DOWNSTREAM 2017 STRATEGIC GOALS Next Normalized Wholesale Retail DS CCS GOALS Downstream free cash 2017 EBITDA Program fuel volume fuel volume flow USD 150% 5.4 Bnlpa USD 900 USD 500mn of…
  33. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 33
    USD 350MN ASSET & EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT ADDITIONAL USD 150MN TARGETED FROM GROWTH PROJECTS EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT GROWTH PROJECTS CONTRIBUTION 2 1 (CUMULATIVE, MN USD) (MN USD) 20% Production 350 80% 1. Availability & USD 60MN…
  34. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 34
    PRODUCTION ROADMAP 1 TARGETS UPTIME INCREASE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY & YIELD IMPROVEMENT A 97% 96.0% 96% HSE 95% 94.7% Operational Availability Optimize maintenance costs and increase operational 94% availability of MOL Group…
  35. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 35
    GROWING CONTRIBUTION THROUGH VOLUME INCREASE 1 B CENTRAL REGION: SALES AND MARGIN GROWTH 1 Sales volume growth 2 Margin revenue growth TRADING BELT: 150% SALES TO NEW MARKETS / NEW CUSTOMERS OWN PRODUCED FUELS 3 Stabilize…
  36. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 36
    CONCEPTUAL CHANGE IN RETAIL 1 TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION C GROUP RETAIL NETWORK RETAIL TARGETS Growing number of retail stations (network optimization and M&A): 2014 1 750 311 of fuel stations Slovnaft Czech…
  37. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 37
    BOOST RETAIL CASH FLOW CONTRIBUTION C 1 2 THROUGH NETWORK GROWTH AND NON-FUEL MARGIN GROWTH RETAIL FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION BY 2017 (MN USD)1 EBITDA / FS 119 123 (th USD) - 20% local currency weakening vs USD - partly off-set…
  38. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 38
    DEEPLY INTEGRATED PETROCHEMICAL PORTFOLIO PETCHEM VALUE CHAIN PP CAPACITIES IN EUROPE (2015 KTPA) Capacity LyondellBasell 2390 420 kT HDPE Borealis 1885 Total Petrochemicals 1120 Naphtha SABIC Europe 950 Gasoil INEOS 755 LPG…
  39. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 39
    EXTENDING THE PETROCHEMICALS VALUE CHAIN 2 TO INCREASE PROFITABILITY LDPE4 Butadiene Synthetic rubber New 220 ktpa capacity LDPE New 130 ktpa capacity Entering the synthetic unit replaces 3 old ones at Butadiene Extraction Unit…
  40. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 40
    15% SEABORNE CRUDE SUPPLY TO DANUBE REFINERY IN 2015 FIRST CARGO TO BE PROCESSED IN BRATISLAVA IN 2016 ADRIATIC PIPELINE ACCESS ESTABLISHED Increased The reliable operation of pipeline capacity: Friendship 1 pipeline restored 6Mtpa…
  41. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 41
    UPSTREAM OVERVIEW
  42. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 42
    AIMING FOR SELF-FUNDING OPERATIONS EVEN AT USD 35/BBL OIL PRICE REVISED PORTFOLIO TO DELIVER 105-110 MBOEPD IN 2016-17 AND 110-115 MBOEPD IN 2018 SUCCESSFULLY REVERSED PRODUCTION DECLINE VIA PRODUCTION INTENSIFICATION IN…
  43. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 43
    PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES IN 8 COUNTRIES RUSSIA Reserves: 72 MMboe CEE TOTAL Production: 7 mboepd Croatia, Hungary KAZAKHSTAN Reserves: 288 MMboe Reserves: 60 MMboe Production: 79 mboepd PAKISTAN o/w CEE offshore Reserves: 11 MMboe…
  44. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 44
    REVISED PORFOLIO WITH 105-110 MBOEPD IN 2016-17 GROWING TO 110-115 MBOEPD IN 2018 MID-TERM PRODUCTION PROFILE STABLE CONTRIBUTION FROM HIGH- (MBOEPD) MARGIN CEE OPERATIONS 120 110-115 Positive cash generation even at 105-110…
  45. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 45
    SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OPEX AND CAPEX TO ALIGN COST BASE WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES TOTAL OPEX EX-ROYALTY (USD mn) CAPEX (USD mn) inorganic - 80-100 1,410 organic 520 -15-30% 830 688 119 0 500-600 890 688 711 2015 2016…
  46. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 46
    EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO EXPANDED IN NORWAY EXPLORATION POTENTIAL (RRP1) MMBOE 130 160 95 1,220 835 CEE CIS WEU (North Sea) MEA Exploration portfolio and resource base were enlarged in 2015 by additions in Norway and…
  47. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 47
    CEE: POSITIVE CASH FLOWS, RISING ON-SHORE PRODUCTION ON THE BACK OF COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION PROGRAM HUNGARY AND CROATIA (117+172 MMBOE) Hungary CRO onshore CRO offshore Employed a systematic approach to identify…
  48. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 48
    CEE: PRODUCTION DECLINE REVERSED IN 2015 WITH CEE OIL PRODUCTION UP BY 12% YEAR ON YEAR HISTORY OF PRODCUTION TOTAL HYDROCARBON OIL PRODUCTION SINCE ACQUISITION OF INA PRODUCTION (MBOEPD) (MBPD) Crude oil Total 60 45 -4% 14 -1%…
  49. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 49
    CEE: COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION WELL PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT ALS optimisation GOALS Field development Fracking strategy on portfolio Maximize extraction of level - reserve transfer Well workovers profitable barrels…
  50. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 50
    PAKISTAN: 15+ YEARS OF SUCCESSFUL OPERATION HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL TAL DEVELOPMENT WITH EXPLORATION IN NEARBY BLOCKS HIGHLIGHTS AND KEY FOCUS AREAS (11 MMBOE) Operator of the TAL block 30 km from the border of Afghanistan, currently…
  51. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 51
    KRI - SHAIKAN: WORLD CLASS OIL DISCOVERY DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON REGULARITY AND AMOUNT OF PAYMENTS SHAIKAN HIGHLIGHTS (GROSS FIGURES) World class oil discovery with 639 MMboe of 2P reserves identified by the operator-commissioned CPR…
  52. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 52
    CIS: FIELD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-COST BAITUGAN WITH STABLE CASH FLOW GENERATION EVEN AT CURRENT OIL PRICES RUSSIA - Baitugan (72 MMBOE) A shallow, compact field with developed infrastructure ensures low unit costs thus stable cash-flow…
  53. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 53
    NORTH SEA, UK: VISIBLE CONTRIBUTION IN 2016 WITH AN ONGOING COMPREHENSIVE VALUE OPTIMIZATION PLAN NORTH SEA, UK (26 MMBOE) First oil achieved on Cladhan in Dec 2015 Drilling programme commenced successfully on Scott Scolty &…
  54. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 54
    NORWAY: A NEW EXPLORATION HUB WITH 750 MMBOE UNRISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES INCREASING FOOTHOLD IN THE NCS Entered Norway in 2015, acquiring 100% ownership in Ithaca Petroleum Norge a pre- qualified operator Further extended…
  55. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 55
    FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
  56. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 56
    OPERATING CASH FLOWS COVER ORGANIC CAPEX CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CAPEX VS OPERATING CASH FLOW Operating Cash flow Organic US Organic GM Inorganic Group Organic DS Organic C&O (incl. intersegment) 2,500 2,277…
  57. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 57
    STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY DRAWN VERSUS UNDRAWN FACILITIES AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY (31.03.2016)* (31.03.2016) EUR 3.5bn Medium term loan Long term loan 3.5 Senior Unsecured Bonds Outstanding short term loans 3.0 0.8 5 000 2.5 0.3…
  58. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 58
    SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY FOR ACQUISITIONS FROM DIVERSIFIED FUNDING SOURCES AVERAGE MATURITY OF 2.35 YEARS1 Reported cash & cash equivalents Medium term loan Undrawn facilities 1,400 EUR 750mn Eurobond issue in Senior Unsecured Bonds…
  59. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 59
    CREDIT RATING PROFILE ABOVE SOVEREIGN RATING AT FITCH, ONE NOTCH BELOW AT S&P HISTORICAL FOREIGN LONG TERM FFO/DEBT RATINGS 45% MOL, S&P Hungary, S&P MOL, Fitch Hungary, Fitch 40% intermediate 35% 30% BBB 25% significant BBB- 20%…
  60. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 60
    KEY ITEMS OF TAXATION HUNGARY CIT TAX RATE IS 19% PROFIT BASED ROBIN HOOD WITH AN IMPLIED TAX RATE OF 22% Only energy related part of the profit affected (70%), nameplate tax rate is 31% Only the Hungarian operation of certain…
  61. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 61
    EXECUTIVE INCENTIVE SCHEMES ON THE TOP LEVEL, MORE THAN TWO THIRD OF TOTAL REMUNERATION IS VARIABLE AND PERFORMANCE DRIVEN SHORT TERM INCENTIVES Maximum opportunity between 0.85x and 1x of base salary depending on executive Pay-out…
  62. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 62
    APPENDIX
  63. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 63
    NORTH SEA REGION UK & NORWAY North Sea (UK) Entry in 2014 Norway Entry in 2015 Operating Other Blocks W.I. shareholder partner(s) Dana (21%), Nexen Scott 22% Apache (10%), (42%) Maersk (5%) Nexen Endavour Rochelle 15%…
  64. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 64
    MOLS ASSETS IN KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ ENTRY IN 2007 AMONGST THE FIRST ONES Block W.I. Operator Shaikan 20% GKP (75%) Khor Mor 10% Pearl Chemchemal 10% Petroleum 66
  65. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 65
    KAZAKHSTAN 67
  66. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 66
    RUSSIA MATJUSHKINSKY BAITUGAN 68
  67. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 67
    PAKISTAN 69
  68. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 68
    MOL GROUP SPECIFIC REFINERY MARGINS 10 9.4 MOL Group refinery margin 8.8 8.6 9 8.2 8.2 Complex refinery margin (MOL+SN) 7.7 7.8 7.6 8 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.6 7 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.0 7.0 5.8 5.8 6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.5…
  69. May 2016 Investor Presentation – Mol Group – slide 69
    NEW RETAIL CONCEPT Check out MOL Groups new retail concept: 71

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