Long-term Outlook and U.S. Onshore Update November 16, 2016
Long-term Outlook Dave Stover Chairman, President and CEO NBL 2
3 Key Takeaways From Today Its all about value-added growth Robust Growth in Oil, Total Production, and Cash Flow 2016 2020E: U.S. onshore oil grows at a 23 29% CAGR* DJ and Delaware increase to between 240 MBoe/d (base plan) and 300…
Strategic Pillars and Focused Plan Delivering leading returns and enhancing value High-Quality and Advantaged Portfolio Over 7,000 U.S. onshore future drilling locations (avg. lateral length of 8,000 feet) Over 2 Billion GOM and West…
Recent Accomplishments Enhance Future Outlook 2015 and 2016 outcomes creating long-term value Expanded Portfolio with Entry into Two Top-Tier U.S. Basins Superior Materially De-Risked DJ Basin Development Environment Portfolio…
Differentiated Performance Versus Peers Maximizing value in low commodity environment NBL Delivering Top-Quartile Production Growth 2015 to 2016 within Cash Flow One of 3 in peer group to grow production while reducing net debt* in…
ROSE Merger: A Great Deal Gets Even Better Delivering value through early entry and activity acceleration Combined Texas Volumes Anticipated Between 165 and 195 MBoe/d by 2020, Up 80 - 120% Versus Merger Plan Generating Annual Net…
Focused Outcomes Through 2020 Accelerating high-margin growth DJ and Delaware Increase to 240 MBoe/d in Base DJ, Delaware, and Plan and 300 MBoe/d in Upside EMED Volume Growth 390 MBoe/d Combined CAGR of 1926% Approximately 75% of…
High-Margin Growth Accelerates Cash Flow Even Faster ROACE* increases to 8 14% by 2020 Total Company Operating Cash Flow Grows Even Stronger (2016 2020E CAGR) Strong Total and Oil Volume Growth 35% (2016 2020E CAGR)** 29% 23%…
Fully Funded Business Plan Significant growth while improving the balance sheet Cumulative Sources & Uses Operating Cash Flows Exceed Total (2016 2020E) Capital (Excluding EMED) and Dividend Upside Additional EMED Portfolio…
Material Midstream Embedded Value A growing portion of the NBL value opportunity NBLX and CNNX with Access to Premier 2.5 B in Midstream Value to NBL B U.S. Onshore Assets 2.5 NBLX and CNNX yields in top quartile of MLP valuations…
Improved 2017 Outlook and Capital Plans Delivering much more than original expectations MBoe/d 2017 Volumes Raised Nearly 10% From Original 425 Expectations Over 70% of Total Capital Allocation to 400 - 410 U.S. Onshore 400 390…
2017 Preliminary Volume Outlook Providing growth on a divestment-adjusted basis 15%* U.S. Onshore Oil Growth in 2017E Up 25%* 2H16 to 2H17E U.S. Onshore Oil Volumes 2H16 to 2H17E up 20 MBbl/d Total U.S. Onshore Volumes Increasing…
Combination Provides Competitive Advantages Premier, high-quality unconventional and offshore assets U.S. Onshore Deep inventory of locations in high-return, low-cost basins Contiguous acreage in multiple stacked pay resource plays…
Other Global Offshore Oil-levered Assets Cash generation supports DJ and Texas growth Leading Operational Capability and Major Project Execution Big Bend, Dantzler, Gunflint, and Alba compression all online in 2015-2016 2.1 - 2.7 B…
EMED: World-class Resources in a High-Demand Region Exceptional assets, margins, and growth Tamar 10 Tcf (Producing) and Leviathan 22 Tcf Gross Recoverable Resources Tamar supplying up to 60% of Israel power generation Leviathan…
Streamlined Exploration Program Building and maturing portfolio for significant future value Progressing Long-Cycle Exploration Potential Differential offshore exploration capabilities in discovering and monetizing resources…
U.S. Onshore Update Gary Willingham Executive Vice President, Operations NBL 18
U.S. Onshore Top Tier Acreage in Premier Basins Complementary assets driving growth and value One of the Largest Independent U.S. Onshore Producers 352,000 net acres Combined 7 BBoe net unrisked resources 3,220 gross locations…
Recent U.S. Onshore Accomplishments 2015 and 2016 actions enhance long-term value Added Positions in Two Top-Tier U.S. Basins Superior Enhanced Wells Ranch IDP in the DJ Basin through Acreage Exchange Portfolio Focused Activity…
Leading U.S. Onshore Economics Extensive and high-quality inventory with competitive returns Near Term Focus Areas BTAX ROR USO Gross Inventory ROR % Wells 7,000 BTAX PV10 or Greater 100 6,000 75 5,000 4,000 50 3,000 2,000 25…
U.S. Onshore Outlook Through 2020 Peer-leading oil volume growth within cash flow 410-465 USO Sales Volumes MBoe/d Accelerating Activity Levels and Growth 2016 2020E 260 - 270 255 MBoe/d USO sales volume 13-16%* CAGR MBoe/d * USO…
Delaware Basin: Long-term Growth Engine for the USO Portfolio 1 BBoe in the heart of the Delaware Materially Increasing Type Curves, Gross NBL Acreage Loving Winkler Locations and Resources Accelerating into Full Development Mode…
Delaware Outlook to 2020 Tremendous growth and value acceleration Total Sales Volumes 70-85% CAGR 2016-2020E Average Operated Rig Count Oil Volumes Grow to 50-70 MBbl/d by 2020E Net Free Cash Flow* Positive Beginning in 2018 0.5 3…
New Completion Techniques Delivering Enhanced Results in the Delaware Faster learning curve accelerates value creation Leveraging Learnings from Across USO to Optimize Completions ROSE NBL Quickly transitioned to slickwater, high…
Enhanced Delaware Basin Type Curves Rapidly improving ultimate recovery Net Unrisked Resources (MMBoe) 1,000 Net Unrisked Resource Increased by 145% to 1 BBoe Wolfcamp A Type Curve Raised to 1.2 MMBoe for 7,500 ft. Lateral Length…
Delaware Stacked Pay Running Room Additional opportunities to be unlocked High-quality Stacked Targets Across Position Pay interval more than 3,400 ft thick Top TVD Increased Locations by 40% to 1,675 from Merger Plan 7,950…
Progressing Delaware to Development Mode Driving significant capital and operating cost efficiencies Planning Infrastructure for Long-Term Development Designed to maximize flexibility, scalable to development pace Planning build-out…
Delaware Basin Impactful Near-Term Catalysts Focused on long laterals, pad drilling and multi-zone testing High Intensity Completions NBL Acreage Ward Multi-Zone Development Testing 3,000 lbs/ft to 7-well pad with 7,500 ft 5,000…
DJ Basin: Foundational Asset of the USO Portfolio Large, high-quality, contiguous acreage position Creating Differential Value with Long Laterals, Low GOR NBL Acreage Mid GOR Midstream Advantage and High Liquids Content IDP Areas…
DJ Basin Outlook to 2020 Solid growth from advantaged position Total Sales Volume 11-16%* CAGR 2016-2020E Average Rig Count Near-Term Focus on Wells Ranch, East Pony and Mustang Areas Continued Expansion of Necessary NBLX and…
Technical Expertise Driving Evolution of DJ Basin Completion Designs Enhanced completions increasing ultimate recovery Enhanced Completion Designs Driving Improved Well Productivity 2014 2015 2016 Openhole Completion Openhole…
DJ Basin Type Curves Significant improvement in per well recovery Wells Ranch Type Curve Raised to 1 MMBoe for 9,500 ft Lateral EUR Increase per Lateral Foot from 2013 Analyst Day Base Well Design Includes 1,400 lbs/ft Proppant and…
DJ Basin: Wells Ranch Development Area Creating more value in core IDP Increased Acreage Position to 78,000 Net Acres through Acreage Exchange 540 remaining locations 2,500 lbs/ft Drilling Long Laterals in Less than 6 Days and…
DJ Basin: Mustang IDP Planning out the next development area 75,000 Highly Contiguous Net Acres NBL Acreage 910 remaining locations, over 90% long laterals Predominately rural farm lands Moser Wells Extending Enhanced Completion…
Eagle Ford: 2017 Growth Driver for the USO Portfolio Unlocking new resource potential NBL Acreage Highly Prolific Wells with Exceptional Economics L&E Significant Cash Flow Generator Testing New Completion Designs on Large Upper…
Eagle Ford Outlook to 2020 Solid production and cash flow contributions Total Sales Volume 15% CAGR 2016-2020E Average Rig Count Net Free Cash Flow* Positive Every Year in Base Plan 0.3 1 2 2016E 2017E 2020E Commencing Production on…
Eagle Ford Type Curves Highly productive wells providing reliable cash flow to the business Optimizing South Gates Ranch Value with Move to 750 foot Lateral Spacing Type curve captures higher initial rates and accelerates payout to 1-2…
Unlocking Upper Eagle Ford with Optimized Drilling and Completions Significant opportunities within existing area Identified Several Keys to Success Based on NBL Acreage 2014 Pilot Learnings L&E Deeper landing zone, wider spacing…
Marcellus: Gas Optionality within the USO Portfolio Core operated position in premier gas play NBL Acreage PA Contiguous, Held By Production Acreage Supporting Long Lateral Development High net revenue interest 85% High-quality…
Marcellus Outlook to 2020 Substantial volume on minimal capital Total Sales Volumes Average between 420 450 MMcfe/d Average Operated Rig Count 2016-2020E Net Free Cash Flow* Positive throughout Forecast 0 0 1 Period 2016 2017E 2020E…
Marcellus Type Curves Prolific wells contributing steady cash flow to the USO business Enhanced Completions Significantly Improving EURs EUR Increase per Lateral Foot Base well design includes 2,000 lbs/ft proppant and slickwater from…
U.S. Onshore Update Summary Enhancing confidence in long-term growth and value potential Robust and Focused Outcomes Through 2020 90% of USO capital focused on DJ Basin, Delaware and Eagle Ford USO oil volume 23-29% CAGR High…
3 Key Takeaways From Today Its all about value-added growth Robust Growth in Oil, Total Production, and Cash Flow 2016 2020E: U.S. onshore oil grows at a 23 29% CAGR* DJ and Delaware increase to between 240 MBoe/d (base plan) and 300…
Appendix NBL 45
Price Deck Assumptions Period Base Plan Upside Plan WTI, Brent Henry Hub WTI, Brent Henry Hub (/Bbl) (/Mcf) (/Bbl) (/Mcf) 2017 50 3 60 3 2018 55 3 65 3 2019 55 3 65 3 2020 56 3 66 3 17-20 Avg 54 3 64 3 Note: Ranges of…
Defined Terms Term Defined Terms and Divestment Adjustments Definition Operating Cash Flow GAAP Net cash provided by operating activities Operating Cash Flow (Revenue less lease operating expenses, production taxes, transportation,…