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Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC

Arb Midstream LLC · Jun 7, 2016 · 21 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 1
    Adam Bedard, CEO ARB Midstream, LLC Pipeline infrastructure and the impact of rapidly changing US production dynamics June 7, 2016
  2. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 2
    ARBs Current Footprint Spans The Inland Corridor of North America Existing/proposed storage Independent, growthoriented company providing Terminals crude oil, gas liquids, and refined products midstream Pipeline capacity and…
  3. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 3
    Outlook for Development of Crude Oil Pipelines by Midstream Companies Today vs. Medium Term Today Arbs are closed Market is highly efficient Basins are overpiped Medium Term Regions of production growth compared to regions with…
  4. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 4
    Arbs Shippers shipping at a loss to fill pipe space and minimize losses
  5. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 5
    Diffs Are Not Set By Transportation Costs in This Overpiped Market WCS 2016 YTD Average Spot Prices 12 Bkn Clrbrk As of May 12, 2016 1 1 Bkn Gnsy Brent ANS 1.30 WTI 1.20 36 1.90 LLS 5 Source: ARB analytics, Argus
  6. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 6
    Arbs Are Closed Across the Market WCS 2016 YTD Average Spot Prices 12 As of May 12, 2016 Clearbrook 1 WCS 1 9 Brent Bkn Gnsy ANS 1.30 WTI 1.20 36 Midland Seaway Lt 3.13 0.01 1.90 1.00 LLS HoustonBarge 5.92 6…
  7. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 7
    Production Growth in heavy production, declines in LTO from Bakken, EF and DJ
  8. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 8
    Genscape Forecasts Canadian Production Will Grow By 850 kbd, PADD 2 Drops by 212 kbd, GoM Falls 275 (Jan 16 to Dec 18) +851 +8 212 108 10 +619 275 Source: Genscape May 27, 2016, 8
  9. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 9
    The Bakken and Eagle Ford Are on Track to Lead Production Declines in 2016 US Crude and Condensate Production (000 bbl/d) Dec 15toDec 16 Decline (Total US = 880 kbd) 10 100 72 Forecast 9 50 Other 8 OK/Midcon 0 Alaska 000…
  10. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 10
    New Pipelines New pipelines coming to market cause increased demand for shrinking Bakken supply
  11. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 11
    Even with Large Declines in 2016, New Pipelines Will Reshuffle Regional Flows, Particularly From the Bakken 2016 2017 Note: Not all 2018 pipelines Source: ARB analytics 11 shown
  12. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 12
    Transportation Capacity Planned in 2013 and 2014 Is Overshooting Declining Production 2013&2014: Production Growth vs. Pipeline 2015&2016: Production Growth(Loss) vs. Capacity Growth Pipeline Capacity Growth 1,000,000 1,000,000…
  13. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 13
    Takeaway Capacity Is Expected to Remain Oversupplied in Major Basins through 2018 Annual Percent Oversupply: Pipeline Takeaway Capacity (20162018) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% Western Canada Bakken Eagle Ford DJNiobrara…
  14. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 14
    Western Canada Supply vs. Demand: Pipe Capacity Sufficient Until Mid2017 When Rail Is Needed 5,500 Production & Takeaway Capacity ('000 bpd) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Rail Capacity 3,000 2,500 Pipeline Capacity 2,000…
  15. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 15
    DJ Basin Supply vs. Demand: Production Rebounds in 2017, But Takeaway Capacity Nearly 2x Too Much 900,000 Production & Takeawway Capacity (bpd) 800,000 700,000 600,000 Rail Capacity 500,000 Pipeline Capacity 400,000…
  16. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 16
    Permian Supply vs. Demand: Pipeline Utilization Soft Through 2016, Tightens by 2018 on Growing Production 3,200 3,000 Production & Takeaway Capacity ('000 bpd) 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Rail Capacity 1,800 1,600…
  17. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 17
    Bakken Supply vs. Demand: Rail Needed Through Most of 16, but New Pipes Take Market Share 2,400 Production and Takeaway Capacity ('000 bpd) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Rail Capacity 1,200 Pipeline Capacity 1,000 Refining…
  18. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 18
    Rail to West Coast Competes with Pipe to Guernsey for Uncommitted Bakken Barrels Bakken Netback1 to Producers (/bbl) 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 Source: ARB analytics 1 WTI at 49.23, market rates as of June 2 2016,…
  19. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 19
    New Pipeline Capacity from DAPL Will Reshuffle Flows, Despite Declining Bakken Production. Bakken Barrels Increase Share of Gulf Coast Market 1,400 Bakken Export by Pipeline and Rail ('000 bbl/d) 1,200 1,000 Rail DAPL 800…
  20. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 20
    Outlook for Development of Crude Oil Pipelines by Midstream Companies Today vs. Medium Term Today Arbs are closed Market is highly efficient Basins are overpiped Medium Term Regions of production growth compared to regions with…
  21. Argus North American Crude Transportation Summit – Arb Midstream LLC – slide 21
    End Adam Bedard, CEO ARB Midstream adam.bedardarbmidstream.com 21

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