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The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc.

TD Securities Inc. · Aug 14, 2017 · 30 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 1
    YOUR ATTENTION IS DIRECTED TO THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES IN APPENDIX A O CANADA The Oil & Gas Conference Denver, CO August 13-16, 2017 Juan (JJ) Jarrah, P.Eng., CFA 403 299 3494 juan.jarrahtdsecurities.com Page 1 of 32
  2. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 2
    Agenda August 10, 2017 Overview of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) Overview and Key Plays Capex, Land Sale Transactions, and Drilling Activity Historical Asset Performance First Year Production by Play and Vintage…
  3. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 3
    Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin August 10, 2017 Source: EIA. Page 3 of 32
  4. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 4
    Production History Liquids August 10, 2017 5,000,000 C5 & Pentanes Plus (0.3 mmbbl/d) 4,500,000 NGLs (0.5 mmbbl/d) 4,000,000 Oil Sands (2.4 mmbbl/d) Crude Oil (1.2 mmbbl/d) Production (bbl/d) 3,500,000 3,000,000…
  5. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 5
    Production History Natural Gas August 10, 2017 20.0 18.0 Natural Gas (15.2 bcf/d) 16.0 Production (bcf/d) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010…
  6. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 6
    Key Plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin August 10, 2017 Peace River Oil Sands Athabasca Oil Sands Cardium Montney Spirit River Duvernay Cold Lake Bakken Oil Sands Viking Oil Sands Source: geoLOGIC, TD…
  7. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 7
    Industry Captial (millions) 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 0 18,619 4,223 21,798 5,907 17,986 6,751 Oil Sands 23,838 5,048 Conventional 26,828 6,183 34,815 10,437…
  8. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 8
    Land Sale Activity August 10, 2017 5,000 1,500 Alberta ( Total) British Columbia ( Total) Saskatchewan ( Total) 4,500 1,350 Alberta (/acre) British Columbia (/acre) Saskatchewan (/acre) 4,000 1,200 Landsale Totals (mm)…
  9. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 9
    Drilling Activity by Key Play August 10, 2017 Montney Viking Cardium 1,500 1,800 900 2017 Annualized 2017 Annualized 2017 Annualized 1,250 1,500 750 1,000 1,200 600 750 900 450 500 600 300 250 300 150 0 0 0 2010…
  10. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 10
    Montney Historical IP365 Rates (Horizontal Only) August 10, 2017 100% 90% 2010 (456 Wells) 2011 (603 Wells) 80% 2012 (604 Wells) 2013 (768 Wells) 70% 2014 (1,009 Wells) 65% 2015 (429 Wells) 60% Percentile 2016 (277…
  11. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 11
    Duvernay Historical IP365 Rates (Horizontal Only) August 10, 2017 100% 90% 2010 (0 Wells) 2011 (8 Wells) 80% 2012 (26 Wells) 2013 (63 Wells) 70% 2014 (96 Wells) 65% 2015 (124 Wells) 60% Percentile 2016 (74 Wells*)…
  12. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 12
    Spirit River Historical IP365 Rates (Horizontal Only) August 10, 2017 100% 90% 2010 (115 Wells) 80% 2011 (217 Wells) 2012 (235 Wells) 70% 2013 (288 Wells) 65% 60% 2014 (469 Wells) Percentile 60% 2015 (465 Wells) 50%…
  13. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 13
    Viking Historical IP365 Rates (Horizontal Only) August 10, 2017 100% 90% 2010 (275 Wells) 2011 (618 Wells) 80% 2012 (968 Wells) 70% 2013 (1212 Wells) 65% 2014 (1510 Wells) 60% Percentile 2015 (861 Wells) 60% 2016…
  14. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 14
    Bakken Historical IP365 Rates (Horizontal Only) August 10, 2017 100% 90% 80% 2010 (600 Wells) 2011 (594 Wells) 70% 2012 (568 Wells) 2013 (433 Wells) 60% 2014 (397 Wells) Percentile 65% 2015 (323 Wells) 50% 60% 2016…
  15. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 15
    Cardium Historical IP365 Rates (Horizontal Only) August 10, 2017 100% 90% 80% 2010 (357 Wells) 2011 (753 Wells) 70% 2012 (781 Wells) 2013 (702 Wells) 60% 2014 (668 Wells) Percentile 65% 2015 (270 Wells) 50% 60% 2016…
  16. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 16
    Historical Reserves Metrics by Year and Percentile August 10, 2017 2016 Quartiles 2015 Quartiles 2014 Quartiles Top Median Bottom Top Median Bottom Top Median Bottom Category P25 P50 P75 P25 P50 P75 P25 P50 P75 2P Reserves…
  17. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 17
    Quarterly M&A Activity (As Announced) August 10, 2017 , 150,000 30.00 EV/BOE/d EV/2P 125,000 25.00 EV/2P BOE EV/BOE/d 100,000 20.00 75,000 15.00 50,000 10.00 25,000 5.00 0 0.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3…
  18. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 18
    E&P Equity Issuances Since 2007 (By Quarter) August 10, 2017 6,000 140.00 Aggregate Quarterly E&P Financings (Bn) WTI 120.00 5,000 100.00 4,000 Aggregate E&P Financings (Bn) 80.00 WTI Price 3,000 60.00…
  19. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 19
    Meaningful Improvement in Balance Sheets August 10, 2017 (Feb 1, 2016 - Strip)* (Feb 3, 2017 - Strip)** Current Strip*** (Feb 1, 2016 - Strip)* (Feb 3, 2017 - Strip)** Current Strip*** 2016 D/CF % Drawn 2017 D/CF % Drawn 2017 D/CF…
  20. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 20
    Low Maintenance Capital Paves the Way for Growth Capital August 10, 2017 2017E Dividend Strip Pricing TD Est. Pricing 2017E Dividend Strip Pricing TD Est. Pricing Maintenance Post-DRIP 2017 CF 2017 FCF 2017 CF 2017 FCF Maintenance…
  21. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 21
    Cross Border Valuations and Key Events August 10, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities Inc. Page 21 of 32
  22. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 22
    Canada vs. USA August 10, 2017 20% 4.0x Canada USA Canada USA Production per Share Growth 18% 3.5x 15% 16% 3.3x 3.0x 10% Median D/CF 11% 11% 2.5x 2.8x 9% 2.5x 5% 6% 2.0x 2.3x 4% 5% 4% 2% 1.8x 1.5x 0% -3%…
  23. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 23
    Canada vs. USA Continued August 10, 2017 20% Production per Share Growth 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Canada 2013-17E USA 2013-17E Canada 2018E USA 2018E -10% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% All-in Payout Ratio Source:…
  24. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 24
    Canadian Valuations and Growth August 10, 2017 70% NVA 60% Montney Focus Q4/17-Q4/18 Production Growth 50% CR Other Gas-Weighted Light Oil-Weighted 40% Heavy Oil-Weighted OBE BIR ECA 30% KEL PXX PONY SPE VII AAV 20%…
  25. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 25
    Canadian Oil Pipelines August 10, 2017 Enbridge (Northern Gateway) Expected completion: 2019+ Capacity: 0.53 mmbbl/d Plains (Rangeland / Milk River) Transports NGLs, condensate, TransCanada (Energy East) and crude Expected…
  26. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 26
    Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines August 10, 2017 TransCanada (NGTL System) TransCanada (Mainline) Consists of 25,000 km of First section commissioned in pipelines and facilities 1950 Throughput is measured at Capacity: 6.9 Bcf/d…
  27. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 27
    Pipeline Expansions August 10, 2017 Potential Canadian Projects Oil Pipeline Expansions Pipeline Status Exp. Year Origin Destination Capacity (bbl/d) TMX (Kinder Morgan) Approved 2019 Edmonton, AB Burnaby, BC 590,000 Line 3…
  28. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 28
    August 10, 2017 Appendix A Page 28 of 32
  29. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 29
    Marketing Presentation Equity Research August 10, 2017 TD Securities Equity Research Disclosures Distribution of Research Ratings Investment Services Provided* 75% REDUCE - 2.7% 60.91% BUY - 57.3% 50% 38.18% 25% HOLD -…
  30. The Enercom Oil and Gas Conference – TD Securities Inc. – slide 30
    Contact List Canada RESEARCH Special Situations Jean-Francois Boucher 416 308 0862 Mark Ferguson, Sales 416 944 5555 Cherilyn Radbourne, CA, CFA 416 308 3403 J.P. Benson, CFA, Head of Research 416 983 6714 Damir Gunja 416 983 4186 Event…

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