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Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA

EIA · Nov 16, 2017 · 17 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 1
    Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production For EIA Webinar: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production November 16, 2017 Washington, DC By John Staub, Director, Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy…
  2. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 2
    Key takeaways The November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is forecasting U.S. oil production for December 2017 at 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) U.S. oil production grew 340,000 b/d in H1 (first half) 2017 and is forecast to…
  3. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 3
    November STEO forecasts Permian to lead production growth from H1 to H2 2017 Projected change Monthly U.S. crude oil production 2nd half vs 1st half 2017 million barrels per day thousand barrels per day 12 Permian +257 forecast 10…
  4. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 4
    Forecasted Permian production growth stands out compared to six other key Lower 48 regions Crude oil production Crude oil production thousand barrels per day thousand barrels per day 3,250 1,200 forecast forecast 3,076 1,000 2,750…
  5. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 5
    Factors affecting EIAs Short-Term Energy Outlook oil production forecast Oil prices Rig counts EIA-914 survey of oil production by state Drillinginfo well-level data Fracfocus completion filings 10Ks, trade press,…
  6. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 6
    EIA-914 Legacy Pre-2015 well well declines production DI well level production data 2015-latest New well well Lower 48 profiles production crude oil Assumptions production - rig efficiency - tech improvement forecast - DUCs…
  7. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 7
    EIA-914 Legacy Pre-2015 well well declines production DI well level production data 2015-latest New well well Lower 48 profiles production crude oil Assumptions production - rig efficiency - tech improvement forecast - DUCs…
  8. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 8
    New wells completed in Permian drive the growth in H2 2017 and 2018, providing 1.7 MMb/d of production by December 2018 Permian region crude oil production million barrels per day 3.5 Aug 17 Dec 18 forecast 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 New well…
  9. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 9
    Early 2017 WTI price flattened and Permian rig count increased as rigs from other regions moved to Permian U.S. rig counts Permian rig counts rigs rigs dollars per barrel 2,500 120 600 120 four-month lagged WTI price forecast forecast…
  10. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 10
    Weekly Fracfocus Permian region completion filings declined in 2016 but production increased in 2016 and 2017 Fracfocus completion filings in Permian region Permian region oil production counts thousand barrels per day 200 3,000 180…
  11. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 11
    Permian average productivity per well continues to increase in 2017 Average new well oil production barrels per day 500 450 400 2017 350 2016 300 2015 250 2014 200 2013 150 2012 100 2011 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17…
  12. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 12
    Exaggerated growth rate in the November STEO forecast as operations returning to normal after Hurricanes Harvey and Nate U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 10.0 forecast without hurricanes 9.5 published forecast 9.0…
  13. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 13
    EIA forecasts 1.5 million b/d of new production in December 2017 from wells that started or will start producing in Sept. through Dec. 2017 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 10 9 8 7 6 5 new production 4 old…
  14. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 14
    U.S. crude oil production and WTI price forecasts reflect market uncertainty U.S. crude oil production WTI spot prices million barrels per day barrels per day 11.0 70 forecast forecast 60 10.5 50 10.0 40 30 9.5 EIA Nov STEO 20…
  15. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 15
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Drilling Productivity Report www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling This Week in Petroleum https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly…
  16. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 16
    Additional Materials Forecasting U.S. Oil Production November 16, 2017 15
  17. Forecasting US Crude Oil Production – EIA – slide 17
    There are 57 regions in the STEO Lower 48 model Forecasting U.S. Oil Production November 16, 2017 16

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