Agenda Value Proposition: High Return Portfolio & Free Cash Flow PA U L R A D Y A N D G L E N WA R R E N C O - F O U N D E R S Scale & Growth: Liquids-Rich Resource Meets Capital Efficiency PA U L R A D Y C H A I R M A N & C E O…
Antero Resources at a Glance Market Cap........ 6.3B Stand-Alone Enterprise Value 9.7B Corporate Debt Ratings Ba2 / BB / BBB- Stand-Alone Leverage. 2.6x Net Production (4Q 2017) 2,347 MMcfe/d Liquids.............................…
Simplified Organizational Structure An 18B Family Valuation Sponsors(1) Public Sponsors(1) Public 27% 73% 68% 32% NYSE: AR 100% Incentive NYSE: AMGP Distribution Rights Enterprise Value: 9.7B Enterprise Value: 3.9B…
Co-Founders & Significant Owners Current Management Ownership CLR 78% RSPP 13.4% PE 13.1% AR 9.0% HES 8.8% XEC 1.7% COG 1.4% NBL 1.2% CXO 1.1% U.S. E&Ps PXD 1.0% 6B Market Cap NFX 0.8% Management Owns 550 MM of EQT 0.7%…
Compensation Structure is Moving to Best Practices Proposed Compensation Plan Going Forward (Incorporates Recent Shareholder Outreach Program) Intends to target median compensation of industry peers Short-term incentive plan…
Value Proposition: High Return Portfolio & Free Cash Flow PAUL RADY & GLEN WARREN Co-Founders 7
Why Are We Here Today Antero is at an Inflection Point Announcing New Long Lateral Development Plan Joining an Averaging 11,500 Elite Group With: Sustainable Cash Flow Growth Step Change in Capital Generating 5-Year Free Cash…
A Transformational History: From Ambition to Results 2001-2010 2011-2014 2015-2017 2018- Antero 1.0 Antero 2.0 Antero 3.0 Antero 4.0 A Shale Pioneer Scaling Up for Optimizing Disciplined Returns Strong Growth Development Program…
Core of the Core Acreage Position Antero Acreage Antero Marcellus Wells(1) Northern Rich Industry Marcellus Wells(1) High-Graded Core 2.24 Bcfe / 1,000 EURs Antero Marcellus Rig 67% Undeveloped Industry Marcellus Rig Dry Gas…
New Long Lateral Plan 59% of Inventory Now 5-Year Plan Averages 11,500 10,000 Lateral Length Average Lateral Length Core Inventory by Lateral Length per Completed Well 14,000 1,600 12,700 1,450 10,800 12,000 1,400 (No.…
Why Are We Growing Outstanding Well Economics Single Well Economics Full Cycle ROR: 28% Half Cycle ROR: 82% Well Economics Full Cycle ROR at 60/Bbl Flat: 33% Support Investment 100% Half Cycle ROR at 60/Bbl Flat: 90% ROR Well…
Almost 3B Capital Reduction to 5-Year Plan Consolidated Drilling & Completion Capital Production Targets Expenditures As of December 2016 As of December 2017 As of December 2016 As of December 2017 2.5 2.4 2.9B Capex 6.0 2.2…
New Development Plan 2.9B D&C Capex Savings D&C Capex Capital Allocation Lateral Lengths Cycle Times & Enhanced Well Cost Savings Savings Recoveries 0.4B Well Cost Savings Related to reduced AFEs including lower 1.1B flowback…
Lower Capital & Higher Liquids Free Cash Flow Over 1.6B of Targeted Free Cash Flow from 2018 to 2022 at Strip Pricing Including Maintenance Land Capital Expenditures 5-Year Stand-Alone Free Cash Flow: Cumulative 1,500 Stand-Alone…
Significant Exposure to Higher Liquids Prices 2.8B in Free Cash Flow at 60/Bbl from 2018 - 2022 4.8B in Free Cash Flow at 70/Bbl from 2018-2022 Aggregate 5-Year Annual Free Cash Flow Upside Free Cash Flow Upside Strip Pricing at…
Attractive Free Cash Flow Yield 9% AR 8% 8% FCF Yield(1) 7% Surpasses Industry Leading Peers, While Maintaining Strong Production 6% Growth FCF Yield 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2018 2019 2020 Free Cash Flow Yields…
Shareholder Interests in Focus: 5-Year Cash Priorities Priorities Sustain Asset Disciplined Growth Optionality for Cash Base Investments Return of Capital Debt Reduction Land Acquisitions 1.6B Free Cash Flow 10.4B for…
Cash Flow Growth Dramatic Delevering 12/31/17 Strip Pricing (Base Case) 60 Oil / 2.85 Gas 50 Oil / 2.85 Gas 5.0x 23% Debt-Adjusted 4.5x Production Growth Leverage targets inclusive of 500 MM Per Share 3.9x Stand-Alone Financial…
Antero Profile To Drive Multiple Expansion Median Debt/ Median EV/ of Adjusted 2018 Adj. Companies EBITDAX EBITDAX AR 2018E U.S. Publicly Traded E&Ps EBITDAX 51 3.1x 7.1x Multiple: 5.1x Premium for: Leverage < 3.0x 23 1.5x…
Scale & Growth: Liquids-Rich Resource Meets Capital Efficiency PAUL RADY & GLEN WARREN Chairman & CEO President & CFO 21
A Deep Understanding of the Appalachian Basin 10 NE Marcellus Rigs Core Liquids-Rich Appalachia 22 Utica Undrilled Locations(1) Rigs B H J F I 5% 3% 2% 3% D 7% 7% K 36 SW Marcellus Rigs 7% AR 40% C 13% A 68 Total…
Defining the Resource: Appalachia Basin Core Analysis A deep database of peer information and analysis is maintained in house 9,600 Wells Horizontal Wells Analyzed Acreage positions: developed and undeveloped Since Basin Inception…
Who Has the Running Room Undrilled Core Marcellus & Utica Locations(1) Marcellus & Utica Liquids Rich Locations SW Marcellus & Utica Dry Locations NE Pennsylvania Dry Locations 4,000 3,500 3,295 Who Can Drill 3,000 Long…
Core of the Core Antero Acreage Antero Marcellus Wells Northern Rich Industry Marcellus Wells High-Graded Core Antero Marcellus Rig 283,000 acres Industry Marcellus Rig 2.24 Bcfe/1,000 Avg. Wellhead EUR 1,300 lb/ft Completions…
Core of the Core Development Programs Half Cycle Total Average BTU 2018 Well 2019 Well Well EUR Regime Undrilled Lateral Range Completions Completions Economics Locations Length (Strip Price) Marcellus Highly-Rich Gas 1275-1350…
5-Year Core of the Core Program Highly-Rich Gas Condensate Highly-Rich Gas Rich Gas 1275 BTU+ 1200 1275 BTU 1100 1200 BTU Well Inventory: 447 Well Inventory: 935 Well Inventory: 495 Avg. Lateral Length: 12,522 Avg. Lateral Length:…
A Pioneer in Drilling Longer Laterals in Appalachia Antero Historical & Future Lateral Length Program 300 of Avg. Lateral Antero Wells Length Total Drilling Program 250 945 8,275 to Date 103 2018-2022 Program(2) 790 11,425…
Lateral Lengths Up 29% in 5-Year Plan Average Lateral Length per Completed Well 2017 Plan 2018 Plan 14,000 12,400 12,700 11,600 Average Lateral Length (in feet) 12,000 10,500 10,000 9,700 9,300 9,100 9,200 9,000 8,600…
Longer Laterals Scale the Resource EURs by Marcellus Lateral Lengths EUR in Bcfe/1,000' 2.3 Bcfe/1,000' R2 = .73 45 A 1:1 Proportional 40 Increase in EURs with 35 Longer Laterals Antero well results show no evidence of…
The Longer, the Better Single Well Economics by Lateral Lengths PV-10 (MM) ROR (%) 25.0 100% 79% 74% 20.0 67% 20.4 80% 15.0 50% 60% 15.9 10.0 11.4 40% 5.0 6.8 20% - 0% 6,000' Lateral 9,000' Lateral 12,000' Lateral…
Well Costs Longer Laterals is the Next Step Historical Well Costs Marcellus Utica 41% 43% 2014 2017 2014 2017 Lower Costs 2.20 2.60 Marcellus Utica reduction in well costs 2.40 from 2014 to 2017 for a 9,000 lateral 2.00 -…
Reduced Cycle Times Lead to Lower Well Costs Drilling Days Completion Stages per Day 45 Marcellus Utica 59% 34% Marcellus Utica 10.0 Decline in Drilling Days in 7.0 40 the Marcellus Utica 6.0 35 31 30 29 29 5.0 4.8…
Operating Evolution Continues Total Well Cost Savings Next Steps in D&C Evolution in the Marcellus(1) Automated completion equipment 100% 42% Drilling Vendor Reduction (3%) increase stages per day Decline in well costs 90% since…
Continuous Design Improvement in Operations Average Wells per Pad by Year Current Well Pads 10 9 150% Generation 1.0 increase in wells 8 Wells per Pad per pad 7 6 5 4 3 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018…
Concurrent Operations Boost Returns ConOps Concurrent vs. Batch(1) 110% Theoretical Best 100% Rate of Return 90% Concurrent Operations 80% 70% Batch Drill Then Complete 60% 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wells per Pad ConOps:…
Pad Designs Support Concurrent Operations New Pads Designed for ConOps Generation 2.0 Completions Fleet Operations 200 Feet Map View Pad Size: Approximately 7 Acres Pad Construction 12 Well Pad Drilling 1st Six Wells…
Advanced Completions Drive EURs Higher Proppant Per Foot Increasing EUR per 1,000(1)(2) Higher Proppant Marcellus Utica 3,000 per Foot Marcellus Utica 3.0 2,757 has contributed to higher 3.0 recoveries 2,530 2,500 2,375…
Result in Dramatically Lower F&D Cost F&D Cost per Mcfe(1)(2) Marcellus Utica 1.40 1.28 52% 42% 1.20 Lower F&D in Marcellus Utica 1.00 0.94 0.88 0.80 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.60 0.51 0.42 0.40 0.20 0.00 2014 2015 2016…
Natural Gas Liquids: Leading Position & Strong Fundamentals DAVID CANNELONGO Oil & NGL Marketing Manager 40
Largest NGL Producer in the U.S. NGL Price Exposure Among Top NGL Producers 3Q17 Daily NGL Production Including Recovered Ethane 115.0 45% NGL % of Product Revenues Pre-hedged Realized Price (/Bbl) 105.6 40% 105.0 35% 34%…
Rapidly Growing NGL Production Antero NGL Production Growth by Purity Product 250,000 Natural Gasoline (C5+) IsoButane (iC4) 245,000 Normal Butane (nC4) Propane (C3) Ethane (C2) C3+ Production 200,000 C2 Total (Bbl/d)…
Current Propane Market Fundamentals U.S. propane exports exceeded excess Resulting in a material reduction in domestic supply in 2016 and 2017 U.S. propane inventories U.S. Propane: Excess Supply vs. Net Exports U.S. Propane…
C3+ NGLs: Absolute & Relative Price Improvement Mt. Belvieu C3+ Price Mont Belvieu C3+ to WTI Price Ratio 2.00 100% 1.80 90% 72% of WTI 1.60 80% 1.40 70% 1.05/gal 1.20 60% /Gallon % of WTI 1.00 50% 0.80 40% 0.60…
The New Norm: Tighter U.S. Differentials to Global Prices Mont Belvieu vs. Far East Index Baltic LPG Shipping Rates Differential 0.00 100 90 (0.20) 80 (0.40) 70 60 /Metric Ton (0.60) /Gallon 50 (0.80) 40…
Propane and Butane: U.S. Supply Growth by Region C3+ supply growth from low cost basins: Supply increases 475 MBbl/d Appalachia (+59%) and Permian (+22%) over the next 3 years to 2,475 MBbl/d Bakken Supply Mid Continent 200…
Propane and Butane: U.S. Demand Growth by Sector U.S. Propane & Butane Demand 1,600 1,400 145 MBbl/d of U.S. demand growth over 1,200 Refinery/Blending/Other the next 3 years 1,000 MBbl/d 800 Residential/Commercial 60%…
The Result The Need for More LPG Exports U.S. Butane & Propane Supply vs. Demand 3,000 U.S. supply growth over 3 years exceeds domestic demand growth 2,500 by 365 Mbbl/d (including 35 MBbl/d of imports) 2,000 MBbl/d 2017…
LPG Exports & Export Capacity Then vs. Now U.S. has U.S. has Sufficient But is export Then: excess NGL constrained Now: excess NGL export supply supply capacity U.S. LPG Exports vs. Capacity (MBbl/d) Potential for Export 1,800…
LPG Shipping Fleet Continues to Support Global Trade VLGC fleet continues to expand with Ship capacity sufficient to 50 new build VLGC orders support global LPG trade through 2020 through 2020 Global VLGC Shipping Fleet vs. Baltic…
U.S. Exports Displacing Middle East Exports Northeast Asia LPG Imports by Exporting Region 700 Northeast Asia U.S. Middle East imported more U.S. 600 LPG cargos than Middle East cargos 513 497 500 for the first time ever in…
LPG: Significant Long Term Demand Growth LPG Import Demand Growth by Region Global LPG import (MBbl/d) China LPG Import (MBbl/d) Japan/S. Korea/Taiwan demand increases by 1,000 Demand LPG Import Demand 1,000 415 MBbl/d from…
India and China: A Detailed Look at Demand India China Aggressive government Demand growing with initiatives to replace wood and government initiatives to HOME animal waste with propane in displace solid biofuels in rural…
Global LPG Demand Growth Absorbs Supply Growth LPG Import/Export Growth by Region (MBbl/d) Europe/Med 2017 2020 Russia - 2,000 N. America/Carib (1,000) 1,000 2,000 (2,000) - 2017 2020 1,000 - Middle East 2017 2020 Asia…
C3+ NGLs: Northeast Market Dynamics and Supply 165 MBbl/d of Northeast C3+ demand vs. 350 MBbl/d of Northeast supply in 2017 Northeast C3+ NGL Takeaway - Resulted in 47% of production consumed locally - Remainder moved primarily by…
C3+ NGLs: Northeast Supply & Demand Northeast C3+ NGL Supply vs. Demand & Takeaway Capacity Excluding Rail (MBbl/d) Long Local Demand and Short Local Demand & Pipeline Capacity Pipeline Capacity Sufficient 800 Pipeline = Tight…
LPG: Marcus Hook vs. U.S. Gulf Coast Shipping Appalachia is geographically advantaged for Northwest Europe cargos and at parity with Gulf Coast for Asia destination cargos LPG Shipping Routes and 2018 Propane Netbacks (/Gallon)…
2018 Guidance: Transition to Free Cash Flow & Low Leverage MICHAEL KENNEDY SVP of Finance & CFO, Antero Midstream 59
2018 Product Revenue Buildup Volumes Realized % of Total Product Revenues (Guidance) Price Volume 38% Liquids as a Percent Natural Gas of Total Volume 1,925 GAS 2.85/Mcf 2.0B 52% MMcf/d C2 44 MBbl/d 10/Bbl 0.2B 5%…
2018 Natural Gas Market Mix Antero Firm Transportation Portfolio in 2018 % of Gas Index Differential Sold TETCO M2 (0.53) 10% Local Mid-Atlantic (0.34) 6% Markets TCO (0.27) 16% 10% of FT Portfolio Gulf Coast (0.14) 41%…
Well Hedged at High Prices Relative to Strip Commodity Hedge Position Hedged Volume Average Index Hedge Price(1) Current NYMEX Strip(2) Mark-to-Market Value(2) 2,400 2,330 2.8 Tcfe hedged through 5.00 2,141 3.5B of gains on 2023…
2018 C3+ NGL Pricing & Market Mix Antero 2018 C3+ NGL Production Netbacks 100% 90% Weighted Average C3+ /Bbl Pre-ME2 Post-ME2 80% Marcus Realized Pricing Location Houston, PA 70% Hook Dock Propane (C3) 56% 60% Mont Belvieu…
Significant Value Derived from Midstream Ownership Antero Midstream Targeted Distributions to Antero Resources 450 400 350 300 in MMs 250 200 150 132 112 100 89 50 - 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E…
Midstream Driving Value for AR Since Inception Antero Midstream Return on Investment for AR (Pre-tax)(1) 7,000 6,117 3,112 6,000 4.7x Cash Proceeds (SMM) 5,000 ROI 4,000 321 2,756 250 3,000 311 795 179 2,000 1,150…
Understanding Liquids Uplift and Processing Costs Antero Processing Benefit vs. Cost Benefits Costs (/Mcfe) 1250 BTU 2.75 GPM 0.75 / Mcfe 1.60 Uplift from liquids (Partial Ethane 1.45 production, net of Recovery) 1.40…
Price Certainty Gained from Firm Transportation Natural Gas Price Differentials Relative to NYMEX Appalachia (1) Antero Realized Differential (2) 3-Year Appalchian Average 3-Year Antero Realized Basis 0.50 Antero Low Volatility…
Significant Value Derived from Firm Transportation Natural Gas Price Realization Relative to Appalachia In-Basin Pricing AR Price Realization In-Basin Price(1) AR Prices Net of FT & Net Marketing Expense (Excluding Hedges) 4.50…
2018 Guidance: Understanding FT, Marketing & Hedge Benefits Firm 0.34/Mcfe Uplift Hedge Book in Realized Gas Prices vs. Local Transportation Dominion South index(1) 3.50 Benefits 3.30 Costs 3.00 2.85 0.45 0.55 2.75 2.63…
Attractive Gas Marketing Plan Net Marketing Expense (High End) Hedge Portfolio Supports Net Marketing Expense (Low End) Firm Commitments Hedge Gains 585 0.48/Mcfe 600 469 5-Year Cumulative: 500 0.45/Mcfe Firm Transportation…
Understanding G&A: Most Productive Employees Production Per Employee (MMcfe/d)(1) Production per Employee Peer Average 5.00 AR A B C D E F G H I J K L 528 241 576 762 467 1,469 1,080 1,809 856 994 850 1,085 3,604 4.00 3.5 3.0 3.0…
Antero Consolidated and Stand-Alone Enterprise Value (MM) 12,000 10,801 10,000 1,077 Net Debt 2,796 8,000 4,529 6,928 1,300 6,000 21% tax on value of Hedge MTM AM units (net of NOLs) 4,000 Market E&P Value Assets…
Financial Policy Overview Fund drilling & completion capital with stand-alone upstream cash Free Cash Flow flow from operations (including AM distributions and earn-out payments from water business sale in 2015) Maintain…
Commodity Outlook Outlook Factors + Strip weighed upon by wind power hedging and upstream acquisition hedging + Operators drilling up their best gas inventory in U.S. Constructive Mid-Term, over next several years Natural Gas…
Looking to the Future: Disciplined Growth 2,500 Average Increase 365 Fewer Completions 2.9B Cumulative Savings, in Lateral Length Per Well than Previous Plan Same Production Targets Planned Antero Well Completions by Year…
Capital Budget Discipline Historical Consolidated D&C Capital Spend vs. Initial Guidance 2,000 Initial Guidance Actual 1,800 +3% + 4% Within Initial D&C Targets Set at 1,600 Outset of the Year 1,400 +2% (4%) Capital Spend…
Same Production Growth With Much Less Capital Spending Consolidated Drilling & Completion Production Targets Capital Expenditures As of December 2016 As of December 2017 As of December 2016 As of December 2017 2.5 2.4 6.0 2.2…
Attractive Debt-Adjusted Production Driving Cash Flow 23% CAGR in 22% CAGR in Net Production per Debt-Adjusted Share (Mcfe/share) 10.00 Debt-Adjusted Production Discretionary Cash Flow 6.0 Per Share Through 2022 Per Share…
Liquidity & Debt Term Structure 9/30/2017 Debt Maturity Profile AR Credit Facility AM Credit Facility AR Senior Notes AM Senior Notes 1,800 1,600 AR 2025 Notes(1) Yielding 4.4% 1,400 New credit facilities for AR 427 AM 2024…
Key Takeaways Announcing New Long Lateral Development Plan Joining an Averaging 11,500 Elite Group With: Sustainable Cash Flow Growth Step Change in Capital Generating 5-Year Free Cash Scale Efficiency Reducing 5-Year Flow of…
Appendix I Supplemental Materials 88
What Drives NGL Product Pricing Gas Linked Crude Linked Ethane Propane Butane IsoButane Pentane (C2) (C3) (C4) (IC4) (C5) Heating, Alkylate feed to Ethylene Winter gasoline Gasoline blend Primary Use Production Crop drying,…
Ethane: Northeast Market Dynamics & Supply Ethane Rejection and Transportation Rates by Region Bakken Rejection West of Appalachia Appalachia 100 78 31 46 BAKKEN/WILLISTON 50 0 4 0 2012 2017 2022 Rockies Rejection…
Ethane: Significant Demand Growth On Horizon Incremental U.S. Ethylene Plant Demand Over 1.0 MM MBbl/d of barrels per day of Ethane incremental ethane 1,200 demand, including 167 MBbl/d in the 1,028 Northeast 1,000 173 855…
Ethane: Northeast Market Dynamics & Supply 190 MBbl/d of ethane current rejected in Northeast Ethane Takeaway and Capacities Northeast (48% of potentially recoverable ethane) Antero is an anchor supplier to Shells Shell Cracker…
Credit Facility Update: October 2017 Old Facility New Facility Borrowing Base 4,750 MM 4,500 MM Commitments 4,000 MM 2,500 MM Maturity 5/5/2019 5 Years (2022) Same as existing, until at least one of Moodys or First-priority,…
3Q 2017 Segment EBITDAX & Capital Expenditures 1 Gathering and compression fees paid to Antero Midstream are included in Gathering, Processing & Transportation expense on stand-alone basis (eliminated on consolidated basis); Gathering…
Appendix II Guidance Material & Cautionary Language 95
2018 Guidance Stand-Alone E&P Consolidated Net Daily Production (Bcfe/d) 2.7 Net Liquids Production (BBl/d) 130,000 Natural Gas Realized Price Differential to 0.00 to 0.05 Premium Nymex C3+ NGL Realized Price 62.5% 67.5% (% of…
Highly Visible 2018 D&C Budget Drilling Marcellus Utica Total Rigs 5 1 6 Wells Spud 106 11 117 Average Lateral 10,046 11,855 10,216 Drilling Cost/1,000' of Lateral 0.28 0.30 0.28 Total Drilling Capex (MM) 293 38 331…
Maintenance Capital Drops with Longer Laterals 2018 Maintenance Capex at 9,000 and 12,000 Laterals Marcellus Utica 700 613 600 552 Maintenance Capital (MM) 500 400 300 200 100 0 9,000 ft lateral 12,000 ft…
Antero Long-Term Target Pricing Assumptions Commodity prices: All forecasts reflect the following commodity price cases: Base case: Strip commodity pricing at 12/31/17 (54.71 WTI crude oil & 2.84 Nymex Henry Hub) for 2018 - 2022…
Antero Long-Term Target Project Assumptions In-Service Date Rover Phase 2 2Q 2018 (April 1) Mariner East 2 2Q 2018 WB Xpress West 4Q 2018 WB Xpress East 4Q 2018 Mountaineer Xpress / Gulf Xpress YE 2018 Note: Based on…