Scotia Howard Weil 2018 Energy Conference Nick DeIuliis March 27, 2018
Agenda Strategic Overview Nick DeIuliis Operational Update Chief Executive Officer Business Forecast 3
Strategic Overview
154-Year Legacy is a Competitive Advantage The Dominion The vast Industrialist assets CNX interwoven Andrew Mellon acquired in 2010 financed the nature of trace their roots consolidation of the CNX to the late 1800s the coal…
Asset Base Creates Compelling Value Creation Opportunity Net Marcellus Acres / Reserves to % Operated Proved Reserves Large Net Utica Acres(1) Production (years) Contiguous Acreage 531,000 / 95.5% 18.6 7.6 Tcfe Position 652,000…
The CNX Strategy is to Grow NAV/Share via Capital Allocation Key drivers of the strategy: Methodical execution driving IRR and EBITDAX growth Basin disruption through stacked pay development Top-tier balance sheet…
Methodical Execution Driving IRR and EBITDAX Growth Expected Five-Year Plan Portfolio Economics Drill Bit Investment Driving EBITDAX Growth 80% 75% 2,000 70% 60% 1,500 50% in millions IRR (%) 40% 38% 1,000 30%…
Stacked Pay Development Will Disrupt the Appalachian Basin Stacked pay provides 30% CNX has a non-replicable asset base increase to total field NPV allowing for stacked pay development Stacked pay drives superior IRRs through economies…
Top Tier Balance Sheet Strength Drives Capital Optionality STEADY STATE DRILL BIT 2.5X LEVERAGE RATIO ROBUST HEDGE BOOK & IRR SHARE COUNT REDUCTION FT STRATEGY ANALYSIS DISCRETIONARY CASH FLOW ASSET MONETIZATIONS BOLT-ON…
Leverage Ratio Capacity Allows for Share Count Reduction Growing EBITDAX Creates Natural Capacity Available Capacity Reinvested within 2.5x Leverage Ratio in Share Count Reduction 3.0x Cumulative available capacity of 2,500 250 10,000…
CNXM 15% Distribution Growth De-Risked CNXM Distributable Cash Flows by Source Expected CNXM Distributions to CNX 2017-2022E 2017-2022E 140 300 130 120 250 103 100 200 80 in millions 80 in millions 150 60 60…
Operational Update
Richhill (RHL): Stacked Pay Development Premier stacked pay field in SWPA Central - CNX expects to develop wet Marcellus laterals in the northern corridor first - While the northern Marcellus corridor is being developed, two dry Utica…
CPA Dry Utica Update: Aikens 5J and 5M Aikens Wells EURs at 3.7 Bcf/1000 Aikens 5J 30000 Located in Westmoreland County, PA (CPA South 25000 region); two wells offsetting successful Gaut 4IH well Rate (Mcf/d) 20000 Average…
Peer Firm Transportation Benchmarking Total FT and Processing Commitments Total FT Commitments + 2018E Adjusted Net Debt(1)(2)(3) 18.4 21.7 18.7 11.6 12.2 8.9 10.8 7.1 5.6 3.7 1.8 2.1 2.7 1.1 CNX Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer…
Business Forecast
Shift to SWPA and Stacked Pay: Surplus Core Marcellus Inventory 450 3.5 400 TILs 46 350 3.0 Stacked Pay Factory TILs 55 up and running 300 TIL Locations 2.5 Net SWPA TILs 73 250 Central Marcellus 2.0 200 Inventory…
Strategy Resulting In Substantial EBITDAX Growth Expected EBITDAX 2018E-2022E(1) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 in millions 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Low High (1) Based on…
Drop Inventory Drives Meaningful Upside to CNXM 15% Growth CNX Retained Undropped EBITDA including Potential Drop Candidates 2017 vs. 2020E Potential Candidates 2018E-2020E 200 CONVEY Water Business Existing DevCos 150 Primarily…
Three-Year Development Plan 2018E 2019E 2020E ( in millions) TD FRAC TIL Capex TD FRAC TIL Capex TD FRAC TIL Capex SWPA Marcellus 62 48 46 60 52 55 71 78 73 Central Utica 3 1 1 19 14 14 27 28 28 WV Marcellus 5 5 5 10 10 7 15 11 11…
Type Curve Guidance Areas Refined For Modeling Accuracy Type curve (TC) guidance areas refined to present more accurate characteristics of acreage - Went from five TC regions (SWPA, CPA, WV, and OH Dry & Wet) to now eight (SWPA:…
Development Areas in Three-Year Plan OH Dry CPA South Utica Utica SHR/PENS SWPA Central Marcellus Marcellus and Utica 25
PDP Performance Drives Low Maintenance Capital PDP Base Decline % Maintenance Capital 900 35% Possible Cumulative FCF of 1.4 billion 800 2019E-2022E 30% 700 600 in millions 25% Possible FCF at (1) 500 Maintenance…
SWPA Central: Focus of Activity in Three-Year Plan Morris Production Legacy vs. Now SWPA Marcellus TILs: 2017 vs. Three-Year Plan 80 73 70 60 55 50 46 TILs 40 30 20 11 10 0 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Average EUR/1,000…
Perfect Pad to Create Stacked Pay Benchmark in 2019 Process Cellar technology construction allows for subsurface well heads Prior Target for faster return Days Days 120 90 Dry month construction 3D seismic drives well bore…
Two Pipe Gathering System Creates Flexibility in DevCo I Industry Standard One-Pipe System CNX DevCo I Two-Pipe System New Pad New Stacked Pay Pad (High Pressure) (High Pressure and Low Pressure) As new high pressure wells are TIL,…
Blending Strategy Helps Drive DevCo I Stacked Pay Economics 1200 Damp acreage requires processing to meet Requires Processing Wet Marcellus Gas BTU specifications 1150 Damp Marcellus Gas BTU Content 1110 Dry Tariff Line…
SWPA Utica: Very Strong Early Results from Richhill 11E Richhill 11E SWPA Utica well currently flowing above 3.2 Bcfe/1000 type curve Most Recent SWPA Utica Well Drilled through series of natural fracture clusters, which were on Path…
Stacked Pay: Pad Level Benefits SWPA Central stacked pay development of Utica and Marcellus yields the highest NAV/share Pay zone specific drilling & completion assignment reduces capital and increase efficiencies Pay zone…
Stacked Pay: What are the Main Advantages Reduces capital - Pre-spud capital nearly eliminated for second formation Stacked Pay Pad Economics Example 350 140% - Use existing fuel gas to power D&C operations Reduces cycle times 300…
Track Record of Success: History of Monetizing Assets Annual average of 600 million in asset monetization Asset Sale Totals by Year from 2014-2017 4,500 414 million in assets sold in 2017 4,000 2018 effort continues 3,500 -…
SOG Sale Drives Continued Reduction in Legacy Liabilities Conventional Shallow Oil and Gas (SOG) assets sold in SOG Wells Included in Sale West Virginia and Pennsylvania, including CBM(1) Agreement signed mid-February - Expected close…
Virginia Coalbed Methane (CBM): Upstream Low Risk Proven IRR 270,000 contiguous acres, 100% WI 88% HBP, 87.5% NRI 4,000 PDPs at 165 MMcf/d 2017 EBITDA of 100 million Future Potential 4,300 potential undeveloped CBM locations…
De-Risked CNX Midstream Growth Driving CNX Upside CNXM Distributable Cash Flows by Source 2017-2022E 300 Ability to sustain 15% CNXM 250 distribution growth is projected without additional asset drops 200 in millions 150…
CONVEY: CNXs Water Business Projected Water Infrastructure: YE2018 PA WV OH Total Cumulative Water System CapEx 219 94 17 330 ( millions) Water Pipelines (miles) 189 79 33 301 Water Storage Facilities (MMBbl) 1.2 0.6 0.3 2.1…
CONVEY: Major Projects Wadestown Development SWPA Water Build Out 65 million - 5 year CapEx spend NPV 165 million, IRR 120% Initial water infrastructure buildout 38 miles of new water infrastructure Eliminates seasonal water…
CONVEY: Drives High Distribution Growth Rate 55 million water EBITDA at proposed rates in 2018(1) Driven by margin on CNX fresh, reuse, and disposal rates Steady Water EBITDA Growth(1) Final rates to be determined at time of drop…
Drop Down Inventory: Wadestown Wadestown: Five-Year Investment Outlook Greenfield Marcellus and Utica dedication in DevCo III Wadestown: Proposed Pipeline Buildout Wadestown metering and regulation Facility - New 1.2 Bcf/d Dominion…
Drop Down Inventory: Central PA Midstream Buildout Central PA Utica: Five-Year Investment Outlook Currently undedicated to any midstream company Recent dry Utica well results proving commercial viability Opportunity to be first-mover…
Virginia Coalbed Methane: Midstream (Cardinal States Gathering) Best-in-Class and Location Interconnects TransCanada TCO pipeline to premium Enbridge ETNG pipeline system As is 40% of the 250 MMcf/d capacity available to gather 3rd…
CNX Midstream Ownership Valuation CNX Midstream drives value CNX Midstream Value to CNX CNXM Represents Significant Growth for CNX in through four main avenues ( in millions, except per share data) 2018E 2020E both IDRs and Retained…
Firm Transportation Strategy Three-Filter Test for Taking on New FT Transportation, Gathering, & Processing 20.0 Commitments and Differentials(2) - 18.0 Total Obligations ( in billions) 1 Do we need it to get it to a liquid…
Liquidity of In-Basin Markets Negates Need for FT It is no longer essential to have in-basin FT capacity to sell gas due to the liquidity of the in-basin markets Gas can be reliably sold on M2 without taking on unnecessary and…
Differentiated Firm Transportation Portfolio Avg. Demand 1,600 Cost (/Dth) (000s Dth/d) 2018E 2018E 1,400 M2 DOM South 345 M3 WLA ETNG 201 1,200 ELA Michcon TCO Pool 475 1,000 Michcon 162 000s MMBtu/d TETCO ELA 30 800 TCO…
Natural Gas Basis Risk and Financial Reporting Clarity Fully-hedged volumes provide revenue certainty and Basis hedging and hedge reporting example de-risks capital expenditures October NYMEX settles 3.30 & M2 Basis settles (1.10); CNX…
Power Plants and LNG Driving Demand Growth 14.7 Bcf/d incremental demand from gas fuel type 13.9 Bcf/d LNG Export capacity by 2022 power plants by 2025 An additional 11.6 Bcf/d is proposed without a target in-service CNX acreage in the…
Supply/Demand Fundamentals 2018 gas consumption expected to increase 3.5 Bcf/d to 77.5 Basin Demand Expected to Increase Bcf/d and increase an additional 2.2 Bcf/d in 2019(1) Roughly 6 GW of natural-gas fired power plant capacity in…
Liquids and Processing Summary ACAA MarkWest Contracted Processing Capacity Blue Racer 365 MMcf/d Dominion MarkWest Majorsville Noble County Utica CNXM and other wet gathering systems provide optionality for CNX wet production…
Balance Sheet Capacity and Dry Powder Upside through 2022E 8,000 7,000 Dry powder of 4 billion through 2022E 6,000 consists of potential Balance Sheet Capacity drop proceeds, tax 5,000 3 billion refunds, CNXM LP/GP in…
Marketing: Natural Gas Hedging and Basis Protection 400 350 Gas Volumes Hedged (Bcf) 43.3 300 250 200 375.9 44 12.1 Systematically layering in 150 290.6 72.3 hedges out to 2022 to protect 100 182 181.9 margins on proved…
Financial Guidance: 2018E-2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue and Other Operating Income E&P Consolidated E&P Consolidated E&P Consolidated Production Volumes: Natural Gas (Bcf) 450-475 505-575 610-700 NGLs (MBbls) 7,500-7,700 6,800-7,400…
Financial Guidance: E&P 2018E 2018E Revenue and Other Operating Income E&P Production Volumes: Natural Gas (Bcf) 450-475 NGLs (MBbls) 7,500-7,700 Oil (MBbls) 15-20 Condensate (MBbls) 590-610 Total Production (Bcfe) 500-525 Basis…
Financial Guidance: 2018E CNXM EBITDA Attributable to CNX 250 200 150 in millions Non-Controlling Interest 100 50 60-65 million 0 Total Revenue Operating Expense General & EBITDA EBITDA Attributable (100% of…
Capital Allocation Optionality: Drill Bit IRR Opportunities Summary Assumptions Portfolio IRR Summary: Five Year Plan Gas pricing: 2.50/MMBtu 140% 300% 138% NGL pricing: 25/Bbl 120% 100% CND pricing: 45/Bbl IRR 80% Full Cycle…
Half Cycle and Full Cycle Modeling Assumptions Portfolio Single Well Assumption Half Cycle Full Cycle Half Cycle Realized Pricing Gas Price - /MMBtu 2.50 Flat 2.50 Flat See Regional Detail NGL Price - /Bbl 25.00 Flat 25.00 Flat…
Capital Allocation Optionality: Share Buybacks 2018E-2022E As of: Q3 2017 End Year-End 2017 As of 3/6/2018 Buyback Potential Share Reduction Additional S/O: 230.1 million 223.8 million 219.8 million 90+ million share…
Rehabilitated Balance Sheet Sets New Beginning Long-Term Liabilities Reduced by More than 4 Billion Over last Six Years 5,000 500 Annual Cash Servicing Costs ( in millions) 4,000 400 2018E hedge book and production Long-Term…
Capital Allocation: Balance Sheet CNX EBITDAX Less Sensitive to Commodity Swings 3.50 Each 0.25 decline in HH price yields only a 35 million 1,400 Balance Sheet Highlights(1) YE 2017 YE 2018E 3.00 decline in 2018E EBITDAX 1,200…
Tax Reform and NOLs Create Tailwind December 31, Tax reform law states that Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) 2017 2016 amounts can be refunded at 50% in first year Deferred Tax Assets: - Expect to receive first proceeds in 2019: 95…
Detailed IDR Model: Assuming 15% Distribution Growth GP + Floor Ceiling LP Share IDR Share IDR Share Minimum Quarterly Distribution (MQD) 0.212500 98% 2% 0% First Target Distribution 0.212500 0.244375 98% 2% 0% Second Target…
Asset Portfolio Overview Marcellus Utica SWPA WV CPA OH Total SWPA WV CPA OH Total Total Net Acres 117,000 95,000 303,000 16,000 531,000 157,000 135,000 235,000 125,000 652,000 Net Developed Acres 21,600 5,900 6,100 200 33,800 100 0…
SWPA Overview: Greater and Central SWPA Central Marcellus Utica Undeveloped Net Locations 391 438 EUR (Bcfe/1000)(1) 2.8 3.2 Total NRI 87% 89% Total PDPs 182 1 Net Current Production (Bcfe/d) 0.412 0.004 Core focus area for future…
Central PA Overview: North and South CPA South Marcellus Utica Undeveloped Net Locations 634 513 EUR (Bcf/1000)(1) 1.8 3.5 Total NRI 87% 87% Total PDPs 47 3 Net Current Production (Bcfe/d) 0.034 0.046 Gaut & Aikens wells have proved…
WV Overview: Shirley-Pennsboro and East WV Shirley-Penns Marcellus Utica Undeveloped Net Locations 85 77 EUR (Bcfe/1000) 3.0 2.8 Total NRI 85% 87% Total PDPs 42 - Net Current Production (Bcfe/d) 0.178 - Strong well results from enhanced…
Ohio Overview: Wet and Dry OH Wet Marcellus Utica Undeveloped Net Locations - 135 EUR (Bcfe/1000) - 2.1 Total NRI - 42% 59 (Hess) Total PDPs - 31 (CNX) Net Current Production (Bcfe/d) - 0.086 Joint Venture with Hess OH Dry Marcellus…
SWPA Central Modeling Inputs and Economics Reserves Detail Assumptions Gross EUR (bcfe) 26.8 SWPA Central SWPA Marcellus Central Type Marcellus Curve Type (2.8 Curve (2.8Bcf/1000) Bcf/1000') IP (MMcf/d) (3 mo. flat) 15.9 Inlet BTU…
SWPA Greater Modeling Inputs and Economics Reserves Detail Assumptions SWPASWPA Greater Marcellus Greater Type Marcellus Curve Type (2.7 Curve Bcfe/1000) (2.7 Bcfe/1000') Gross EUR (bcfe) 25.8 IP (MMcf/d) (3 mo. flat) 11.8 Inlet BTU…
CNX Midstream Partners Governance NYSE: CNX 100% CNX Gathering LLC 33.4% LP Interest 100% CNX Midstream GP LLC The General Partner Incentive Distribution Rights Public 41.9mm Common Units 2% GP Interest 95% LP…